A Statistical Analysis of Khabib's Past 5 opponents and their TDD

[legkicktko]

Some keys to point out

• He had the most average takedown attempts per round against Barboza (4.3 Takedown attempts per round) In reverse, you might say he was less willing to strike with Edson than others or that Edson was doing a better job at getting up to his feet/stuffing the shot (as pointed out by @Alxair).
• He had the least amount of TD attempted per round against Conor (1.75 Takedown attempts per round)
• The highest percentage of TDD % against Khabib so far goes in descending order of Barboza (70% of takedowns defended), Michael Johnson (67% of takedowns defended), Al Iaquinta (60% of takedowns defended), Conor McGregor (58% of takedowns defended), and lastly Dustin Poirier (13% of takedowns defended)
• Highest Significant Strike Defense against Khabib is in order as follows: Al Iaquinta (56% Significant Strike Defense). Edson Barboza (50% Significant Strike Defense), Dustin Poirier (47% Significant Strike Defense). Conor McGregor (42% Significant Strike Defense), and lastly Michael Johnson (34% Significant Strike Defense).

 

[Harlekin]

I think we can neglect the striking defense, as most of them are from gnp. Fight metric doesn't have enough dimensions.
Weak slaps are counted the same as knockdown punches ffs

 

[legkicktko]

I think we can neglect the striking defense, as most of them are from gnp. Fight metric doesn't have enough dimensions.
Weak slaps are counted the same as knockdown punches ffs

Yes, agreed. I added it on as a little bonus but it is probably erroneous.

 

[Booksmasher]

Tiramisu time

 

[vgff]

I think we can neglect the striking defense, as most of them are from gnp. Fight metric doesn't have enough dimensions.
Weak slaps are counted the same as knockdown punches ffs

yeah, this is why i don't put a lot of attention to fight statistics. the qualitative is just as important as the quantitative

 

[VVarhead]

B-But Iaquinta was pieced up by Khabib's jab!

Seems like the facts disagree.

 

[BooBoyMan]

B-But Iaquinta was pieced up by Khabib's jab!

Seems like the facts disagree.

I mean, he defended a lot of strikes sure, but that doesn't change the fact that he was getting lit up. In fact, most of the damage Iaquinta received was on the feet.

 

[legkicktko]

B-But Iaquinta was pieced up by Khabib's jab!

Seems like the facts disagree.

Not exactly. Al did not land a significant strike until the 3rd round. In rounds 3-4, he was outlanded on the feet 31-4 and 32-12.

For him having 2 full rounds on the feet (something no other opponent had), he did awful.

 

[legkicktko]

I mean, he defended a lot of strikes sure, but that doesn't change the fact that he was getting lit up. In fact, most of the damage Iaquinta received was on the feet.

Read my post above. lol.

 

[Threetrees]

I think takedown defense is the most useless stat in MMA

 

[legkicktko]

I think takedown defense is the most useless stat in MMA

Not necessarily.

It is significant to see the varying levels of urgency that Khabib had in taking people down. In addition, since his TD's are so ridiculously effective, it is completely worth noting who stopped most of them. Tactics in the future can be based off of that analysis.

For example, if you are fighting him next, you would want to understand why Poirier stopped 1 of 8 takedowns and why Edson, who is a far inferior grappler stopped 9 of 13. It isn't the end all be all, but it could be a foundation for studying the range they fight at, and what enabled Edson to exit 9 of those 13 exchanges while keeping it on the feet. Is it a stronger clinch? Was he getting cornered less than Dustin? Was Khabib less or more committed? etc.

 

[I am only 19]

B-But Iaquinta was pieced up by Khabib's jab!

Seems like the facts disagree.

Where do the facts disagree? =)

 

[khabib time]

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Some keys to point out

• He had the most average takedown attempts per round against Barboza (4.3 Takedown attempts per round) In reverse, you might say he was less willing to strike with Edson than others
• He had the least amount of TD attempted per round against Conor (1.75 Takedown attempts per round)
• The highest percentage of TDD % against Khabib so far goes in descending order of Barboza (70% of takedowns defended), Michael Johnson (67% of takedowns defended), Al Iaquinta (60% of takedowns defended), Conor McGregor (58% of takedowns defended), and lastly Dustin Poirier (13% of takedowns defended)
• Highest Significant Strike Defense against Khabib is in order as follows: Al Iaquinta (56% Significant Strike Defense). Edson Barboza (50% Significant Strike Defense), Dustin Poirier (47% Significant Strike Defense). Conor McGregor (42% Significant Strike Defense), and lastly Michael Johnson (34% Significant Strike Defense).

Dustin thought he could handle Khabib on the ground. He said so in interviews

View attachment 647369 View attachment 647371 View attachment 647373
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Some keys to point out

• He had the most average takedown attempts per round against Barboza (4.3 Takedown attempts per round) In reverse, you might say he was less willing to strike with Edson than others
• He had the least amount of TD attempted per round against Conor (1.75 Takedown attempts per round)
• The highest percentage of TDD % against Khabib so far goes in descending order of Barboza (70% of takedowns defended), Michael Johnson (67% of takedowns defended), Al Iaquinta (60% of takedowns defended), Conor McGregor (58% of takedowns defended), and lastly Dustin Poirier (13% of takedowns defended)
• Highest Significant Strike Defense against Khabib is in order as follows: Al Iaquinta (56% Significant Strike Defense). Edson Barboza (50% Significant Strike Defense), Dustin Poirier (47% Significant Strike Defense). Conor McGregor (42% Significant Strike Defense), and lastly Michael Johnson (34% Significant Strike Defense).

Dustin had bad strategy. He didn't spend time training TDD. He thought he could compete with Khabib on the ground. His black belt didn't hold up. Also, one statistic that's important would be "ground control". Octagon control can be a BS category but the amount of time Khabib spends on top or controlling his opponent on the ground is amazing. Iaquinta probably did the best followed by Barboza in that category. Khabib gave Conor round 3 to rest from pounding on Conor the first 2 rounds. He also used a lot of energy to get Conor down and keep him there (Conor trained very good TDD). Dustin did a terrible job preparing for Khabib. It turned out to be a very bad matchup for him.

 

[Threetrees]

Not necessarily.

It is significant to see the varying levels of urgency that Khabib had in taking people down. In addition, since his TD's are so ridiculously effective, it is completely worth noting who stopped most of them. Tactics in the future can be based off of that analysis.

For example, if you are fighting him next, you would want to understand why Poirier stopped 1 of 8 takedowns and why Edson, who is a far inferior grappler stopped 9 of 13. It isn't the end all be all, but it could be a foundation for studying the range they fight at, and what enabled Edson to exit 9 of those 13 exchanges while keeping it on the feet. Is it a stronger clinch? Was he getting cornered less than Dustin? Was Khabib less or more committed? etc.

You can see the urgency that he had in attempting takedowns by just watching the fight. The TDD% doesn't add any extra or interesting information.

 

[legkicktko]

You can see the urgency that he had in attempting takedowns by just watching the fight. The TDD% doesn't add any extra or interesting information.

I mean, that's your opinion. To me it is significant because like I said, it tells an important unbiased story.

Most people on the forum thought Al had the most success in the TDD, when it statistically is not the case. That's food for thought at minimum.

 

[Threetrees]

I mean, that's your opinion. To me it is significant because like I said, it tells an important unbiased story.

Most people on the forum thought Al had the most success in the TDD, when it statistically is not the case. That's food for thought at minimum.

We're going to end up agreeing to disagree, which is fine because i like the conversation.
I don't think that there's anything interesting about the Al stat, for example, because if you're just not a moron and you watch the fight you can see when, why and how he defended takedowns and when, how and why he didn't. Same with the Barboza fight. The contextless stats don't provide anything extra, and if your claim is that "most people on the forum thought A but the stats show B" then I just think that's more interesting evidence to show that most people on the forum are stupid.

 

[legkicktko]

We're going to end up agreeing to disagree, which is fine because i like the conversation.
I don't think that there's anything interesting about the Al stat, for example, because if you're just not a moron and you watch the fight you can see when, why and how he defended takedowns and when, how and why he didn't. Same with the Barboza fight. The contextless stats don't provide anything extra, and if your claim is that "most people on the forum thought A but the stats show B" then I just think that's more interesting evidence to show that most people on the forum are stupid.

I think you're right actually. I definitely see your perspective.

To that same point about forums being uneducated, you could argue that most people on the forum are prone to say Edson has no TDD compared to Al or Poirier. When in reality, he had more success in defensive wrestling than anyone else on that list.

 

[Alxair]

Definitely interesting numbers but always look at context at these things. Having more TD attemps also is a function of more failed takedowns and the other guy getting up. Conor was, if I recall correctly, very successful in terms of drawing the takedown in itself out but he had trouble getting up - hence the low attempt stat. While Al was hard to take down and also hard to keep down iirc.

Dustin on the other hand was getting completely rag dolled and taken down at will and the numbers show as much but I wouldn't pay too much attention to that because the end result for each of these fights was complete domination by Khabib with absolutely no dangerous moments for him. Well okay, there was that Barboza kick that would've been dangerous but that mad mad just walked through it.

 

[Threetrees]

I think you're right actually. I definitely see your perspective.

To that same point about forums being uneducated, you could argue that most people on the forum are prone to say Edson has no TDD compared to Al or Poirier. When in reality, he had more success in defensive wrestling than anyone else on that list.

I see your point as well though, you can for sure use those stats to quickly show "no your recollection of this fight is wrong"

 

[legkicktko]

Definitely interesting numbers but always look at context at these things. Having more TD attemps also is a function of more failed takedowns and the other guy getting up. Conor was, if I recall correctly, very successful in terms of drawing the takedown in itself out but he had trouble getting up - hence the low attempt stat. While Al was hard to take down and also hard to keep down iirc.

Dustin on the other hand was getting completely rag dolled and taken down at will and the numbers show as much but I wouldn't pay too much attention to that because the end result for each of these fights was complete domination by Khabib with absolutely no dangerous moments for him. Well okay, there was that Barboza kick that would've been dangerous but that mad mad just walked through it.

Yes, I definitely agree with the need to add context. But at least the stats get the conversation started.

So from that perspective, you could argue that part of the reason he attempted less on Conor was due to Conor's inability to get up / lack of effective TDD. He got taken down by the very first attempt of the fight and never got back up. On the flip side, I would add that him standing with Conor for an entire round also shows more willingness to strike with Conor tired than other guys.

I've rewatched his fights with Edson and MJ multiple times and those guys presented a lot of danger. Even though they may not have landed anything significant as the fight went on, both remained explosive and Khabib seemed to have urgency in taking them down as much and as often as possible. The last 2 minutes of the Edson fight are actually a testament to this. Edson is going for headkicks and flying knees, and Khabib is forcing the takedown even with less than 20 seconds left in the fight because he perceives that.