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7 August 2018: Ohio Special Election | Kansas Republican Gubernatorial Primary

Discussion in 'The War Room' started by waiguoren, Aug 7, 2018.

  1. waiguoren Double Yellow Card Double Yellow Card

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    100% reporting

    Republican Troy Balderson 50.2%
    Democrat Danny O’Connor 49.3%
    Green Joe Manchik 0.6%






    --------------------

    Kansas Republican Gubernatorial Primary

    Kris Kobach (strong Trump ally) vs. Jeff Colyer (incumbent)


    ✯✯✯✯✯KOBACH WINS✯✯✯✯✯



    Kris Kobach
    126,257 40.6%
    Jeff Colyer*
    126,066 40.5
    Jim Barnett
    27,449 8.8
    Others 31,237 10.0


    311,009 votes, 100% reporting (3,539 of 3,539 precincts)


    In celebration of this momentous victory, let us remind ourselves of Kobach's brutal smackdown of an unqualified MSNBC host.




    -----------------------------



    Democrats surging on eve of pivotal special election



    ...in the final days ahead of Tuesday's election, signs were everywhere that Democrats are surging — from recent polling to the private and public statements of many Republicans, including the GOP candidate himself. The district has been reliably red for more than three decades, but the sheer size of the Republican cavalry made clear how worried the party is about losing it.

    ...

    A loss, following startling Republican defeats in Pennsylvania and Alabama, would offer more evidence that a blue wave is on the horizon. And it would further fuel fears of what’s becoming evident: that Democrats are simply more amped up, even in areas that have long been safely Republican.

    ....

    Like dozens of other suburban districts around the country, Ohio’s 12th is filled with higher-income and upper-educated voters who have soured on the president, and some party officials are worried that the boisterous rally could turn those voters away from Balderson. The Monmouth poll showed Trump's approval rating in the district at just 46 percent.

    Those worries intensified on Saturday morning when, just hours before the rally, Trump took to Twitter to attack NBA legend LeBron James, an Ohio favorite son who recently opened a public school in Akron for at-risk youth.

    Jay Hottinger, a friend of Balderson's who serves alongside him in the state Senate, described Trump as “one of the most divisive presidents and political figures we’ve ever had” but said his visit was crucial for generating conservative interest in the contest.

    “What we are seeing in polling, both nationally and in the 12th Congressional District, is that Democrats are more motivated to go out and vote,” he added.

    ...


    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/08/05/ohio-special-election-democrats-764337


    [​IMG]
    Republican Troy Balderson



    [​IMG]
    Democrat Danny O'Connell
     
    Last edited: Aug 8, 2018
  2. Rational Poster War Room Messiah

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    They both look happy.
     
  3. Ophydian Red Belt

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    I wonder how well that teen tie did in focus groups.
     
  4. Quipling Silver Belt

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    Iirc, there are a few Ohioans in here. Wonder if any of them are in that district.
     
  5. Fawlty Memesy were the borogroves Platinum Member

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    I'd say anything from a 3 point R victory or worse would be a very worrying sign for the Rs in the midterms.
     
  6. Jack V Savage Secretary of Keepin' It Real/Nicest Guy on Sherdog Platinum Member

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    Let's just have a good clean election, and most importantly: everyone have fun out there.
     
  7. Diamond Jim Silver Belt

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    538 had this district as a +14 for Republicans before this special election and it’s now basically a toss up.
     
  8. KnightTemplar Halloween Belt Platinum Member

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    Fixed that for you. Comrade;)
     
    Last edited: Aug 7, 2018
  9. Joe :l

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    Republican should win this easily. Big lol if they lose.
     
  10. waiguoren Double Yellow Card Double Yellow Card

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    Most recent poll has the Democrat with a slight lead:

    Ohio 12th District Special Election - Balderson vs. O'Connor
    Emerson
    Balderson 46, O'Connor 47 O'Connor +1
     
  11. Limbo Pete Fake History Man

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    But what does the proprietary model have to say
     
  12. KnightTemplar Halloween Belt Platinum Member

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    Meh. The God-Emperor won't be worried even if the Dems win Ohio. By the time the Mid Terms come around, America will be at war with Iran. Nothing like a juicy, sexy war to bring in the votes;)
     
    Last edited: Aug 7, 2018
  13. Edison Exotic Excellence of execution belt Platinum Member

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    Sadly I think you might have something here.
     
  14. KnightTemplar Halloween Belt Platinum Member

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    The next round of sanctions against Iran - the ones that will really hurt because they target oil exports - go live in November.

    But I'm sure the timing is just a coincidence...

    <NoneOfMy>
     
  15. waiguoren Double Yellow Card Double Yellow Card

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    Anyone here taking the Republican?
     
  16. Gandhi War Room Deep State Platinum Member

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    Those Dems are just Bannonist blue dawgs amiright!!!!!!
     
  17. waiguoren Double Yellow Card Double Yellow Card

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  18. Edison Exotic Excellence of execution belt Platinum Member

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  19. Jack V Savage Secretary of Keepin' It Real/Nicest Guy on Sherdog Platinum Member

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    I have no idea.

    Everything that seems to be relevant that I know is here (mostly thanks to 538): The average Democratic swing in special elections has been 16 points (9-point SD), and the normal lean in this district is 14 points for Republicans. The polling average is +2 for Balderson. House polls and special elections apparently have very high error margins.

    Don't see anything to justify any confidence picking one way or the other.
     
  20. HunterSdVa29 Respect, tho Platinum Member

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    I think the Dem might take it

    jokes aside, Trump's comments on Lebron might legit hurt the party there. That guy singlehandedly increased the GDP something like 5% in the Cleveland/akron area upon coming back IIRC. Granted I have no idea how that plays in the wealthier suburbs like Medina
     

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