Yeah I don't get the odds here. I don't see why he's the underdog. I really don't.
Oh, I definitely see why lol.
Cruz is coming off two losses and his last win was back in 2016. He's worn and had a lot of injuries vs the younger guy who has 3 wins in 2020 alone.
It's a little different here because of the injuries and lack of activity for Cruz, but bookies often get fooled by pure fight records when they should be looking at level of competition faced instead.
Tecia Torres vs Brianna Van Buren is the best example I've seen of this. Tecia was paying 3.20. I tried to put 3k on Tecia but they limited it to 1k as their traders would have been wondering why the fuck someone was going hard on a girl who had lost her last 4 and was up against someone who had won their last 6.
In that example, they didn't seem to realize that Tecia losing 4 straight decisions to the likes of Marina, Joanna, Zhang, and Andrade is actually a far better showing than beating the likes of Lima and Curran in a one-night tourney in Invicta, and then Souza in the UFC. (Lima and Curran are both UFC wash outs in case you don't know. Curran went 1-6 in the UFC).
Cruz losing to Cody and Henry is better than Casey beating Alateng, Smolka and Wood recently.
Like I said though, there's more to this fight than that on Cruz's side, but those sort of records go a long way in swaying bookies in my experience.
Personally, I have this at either near evens or Cruz as a slight fav.
