panem-et-circenses
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The general election will be October 2nd. This is probably the remaining international election of interest, with Austria (presidential) and Sweden (general) holding votes around the same time but without nearly as much global interest, so I figured I’d start the discussion, if there is any. (JAIR was a topic in America for some time; although you don’t really hear all that much about him anymore.)
Lula, of the Workers Party (some call it ‘milquetoast socialism’ but I’ll go with ‘left-wing’), holds a double-digit lead in the polling over right-wing leader Jair Bolsonaro.
“The survey published on Monday by Instituto FSB found that 46 percent of voters said they support Lula, up from 41 percent in April, while support for Bolsonaro was unchanged from a month ago at 32 percent.”
“According to Monday’s poll, in an expected second-round runoff between the two rivals, Lula would gain 54 percent of the votes and Bolsonaro 35 percent, a 19-percentage-point advantage that Lula had in March.“
Has Bolsonaroism come to an end? Inflation, crime, pollution, social mobility and corruption are all concerns (pretty much the same everywhere, although Brasil might be our violent twin). The polling looks horrible for Jair, too.
First debate is August 6th.
———— Update July 26th ————
“Former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is retaining his lead over incumbent Jair Bolsonaro ahead of Brazil's October presidential election, according to a Datafolha opinion poll released on Thursday.
Lula drew 47% support in the opinion poll against Bolsonaro's 28%. In May, Lula's lead was 48% to 27%.”
You can see a more detailed analysis from PollingData, which goes through a more thorough depiction of what is going on, including candidate versus candidate outcomes, all of which does not bode well for Bolsonaro. Not a significant change in the polling since the OP was made. Maybe Bolsonaro made some ground, yet it would be very little and prone to error.
Lula, of the Workers Party (some call it ‘milquetoast socialism’ but I’ll go with ‘left-wing’), holds a double-digit lead in the polling over right-wing leader Jair Bolsonaro.
“The survey published on Monday by Instituto FSB found that 46 percent of voters said they support Lula, up from 41 percent in April, while support for Bolsonaro was unchanged from a month ago at 32 percent.”
“According to Monday’s poll, in an expected second-round runoff between the two rivals, Lula would gain 54 percent of the votes and Bolsonaro 35 percent, a 19-percentage-point advantage that Lula had in March.“
Has Bolsonaroism come to an end? Inflation, crime, pollution, social mobility and corruption are all concerns (pretty much the same everywhere, although Brasil might be our violent twin). The polling looks horrible for Jair, too.
First debate is August 6th.
———— Update July 26th ————
“Former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is retaining his lead over incumbent Jair Bolsonaro ahead of Brazil's October presidential election, according to a Datafolha opinion poll released on Thursday.
Lula drew 47% support in the opinion poll against Bolsonaro's 28%. In May, Lula's lead was 48% to 27%.”
You can see a more detailed analysis from PollingData, which goes through a more thorough depiction of what is going on, including candidate versus candidate outcomes, all of which does not bode well for Bolsonaro. Not a significant change in the polling since the OP was made. Maybe Bolsonaro made some ground, yet it would be very little and prone to error.
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