The academy isn't giving a distinctly British movie with two no-name British actors and exactly: one woman, and two people of color in tiny roles, Best Picture. Only way it even stands a chance is if it becomes a huge hit in America over the next month...
Remember: Dunkirk didn't get Best Picture, and it was just as technically brilliant while having the cache of Nolan Directing and Tom Hardy in the lead. It lost Best Picture to a movie about fish fucking... it lost Best Picture to a movie about fish fucking. That's how much Hollywood is opposed to handing out Best Picture to imports.
Best Picture will come down to (in order of likelyhood):
Once Upon a Time...
Joker
The Irishman
Marriage Story
Parasite (yes its foreign, but relevant, and brilliant)
Ford v. Ferrari
Little Women
Knives Out
.
.
.
1917
Uncut Gems
Jojo
Dolemite