O
Overtures
Guest
I had an account bet with @all caps - If Trump wins, I ask the mods to take this screen name out to pasture.
but account bets are lame
I was confident at various points that Trump was going to lose, less confident at others. I still think Trump will lose. Here’s why:
1. He will need to outperform his 2016 polling error to win.
2. Even if you give him an additional point for each state in the error, it comes out as a tie. In other words, there’s a lot riding on the shy Trump voter, more than last time.
3. Democrats have put in a substantial lead in early voting. Republicans will need to really have a strong showing Tuesday—and Democrats will likely also have a strong showing.
4. The Rona is the only thing that truly can move the needle for undecided voters, and it’s the second brightest headline right now apart from election forecasting.
5. This race isn’t nearly as volatile as 2016, the odds of undecided breaking for Trump at this point are non-existent. The early vote has squashed that probability, along with the historically partisan nature of the country at the moment. Additionally, the small amount of undecideds that there are, have split down the middle.
Here’s why I think Trump could win:
1. Florida will likely go his way. Cubans love Trump because they like his policies towards Cuba. They will rally around him and likely be an underestimated force.
2. Pennsylvania is a hot for a polling error given the states emphases on the oil industry. Granted, Trump would need to cover a 4-5 point deficit, it is still possible.
3. Georgia and Arizona are historically red states that are part of Biden’s slam dunk scenario, not part of his realistic fallbacks or cushions.
4. North Carolina is close.
5. If you assume Trump fundamentally outperforms polls, it’s reasonable to see AZ, FL, PA, and NC going his way, and that’s enough to squeeze out a victory.
I could say the safe bet is Biden wins a by the skin of his sack, but I’ll go in on a hunch:
the rona delivers Biden slim victories in NC, AZ, PA, and Georgia. Biden walks with a moderate landslide.
And lo and behold, I continue to shit post.
but account bets are lame
I was confident at various points that Trump was going to lose, less confident at others. I still think Trump will lose. Here’s why:
1. He will need to outperform his 2016 polling error to win.
2. Even if you give him an additional point for each state in the error, it comes out as a tie. In other words, there’s a lot riding on the shy Trump voter, more than last time.
3. Democrats have put in a substantial lead in early voting. Republicans will need to really have a strong showing Tuesday—and Democrats will likely also have a strong showing.
4. The Rona is the only thing that truly can move the needle for undecided voters, and it’s the second brightest headline right now apart from election forecasting.
5. This race isn’t nearly as volatile as 2016, the odds of undecided breaking for Trump at this point are non-existent. The early vote has squashed that probability, along with the historically partisan nature of the country at the moment. Additionally, the small amount of undecideds that there are, have split down the middle.
Here’s why I think Trump could win:
1. Florida will likely go his way. Cubans love Trump because they like his policies towards Cuba. They will rally around him and likely be an underestimated force.
2. Pennsylvania is a hot for a polling error given the states emphases on the oil industry. Granted, Trump would need to cover a 4-5 point deficit, it is still possible.
3. Georgia and Arizona are historically red states that are part of Biden’s slam dunk scenario, not part of his realistic fallbacks or cushions.
4. North Carolina is close.
5. If you assume Trump fundamentally outperforms polls, it’s reasonable to see AZ, FL, PA, and NC going his way, and that’s enough to squeeze out a victory.
I could say the safe bet is Biden wins a by the skin of his sack, but I’ll go in on a hunch:
the rona delivers Biden slim victories in NC, AZ, PA, and Georgia. Biden walks with a moderate landslide.
And lo and behold, I continue to shit post.
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