Elections 2020 Democratic Primary Thread v3

[waiguoren]

hi waiguoren,

*shrugs*

the GOP is intellectually bankrupt, and has been for the last half century or so. witness the ease in which they jettisoned their moral plank along with discontinuing the pretense of fiscal conservatism (RIP Paul Ryan).

maybe you're just a young person, my friend. you and i view the GOP through a rather different historical prism. or maybe you're just really sure in your worldview and have no idea that the top issues for GOP voters in 2016 were the economy and terrorism. either way, its all good. ignorance is bliss.

i don't follow the Daily Caller, Breitbart or Rush Limbaugh - just Redstate, Townhall and the National Review.

in either case, i'm glad you've made such a serious effort. keep it up.

*salutes*

- IGIT

The bolded and underlined says it all, Mr. Ig. You are completely out of touch with the Republican base, so it's no wonder that you have to fall back on flimsy explanations like "intellectual bankruptcy" to explain the outcome of a Republican primary.

To understand those voters, you would at least need to consume some of the media sources they do. It's clear from your post that you have not taken that time, so I think you should not be offering your analysis.

 

[IGIT]

heya waiguoren,

The bolded and underlined says it all, Mr. Ig. You are completely out of touch with the Republican base

ok. its great to speak to someone so in touch with it.

so it's no wonder that you have to fall back on flimsy explanations like "intellectual bankruptcy" to explain the outcome of a Republican primary.

yes. ok waiguoren.

To understand those voters, you would at least need to consume some of the media sources they do. It's clear from your post that you have not taken that time, so I think you should not be offering your analysis.

like i said, i'm glad you've made such a serious study. i'm commending you! i'm unclear what else you want from me.

other than that, i repeat, the economy and terrorism were the top concerns for GOP voters. i'm trying to expand your knowledge...but i'm getting sleepy.

goodnight, waiguoren.

cya tomorrow maybe.

- IGIT

 

[waiguoren]

other than that, i repeat, the economy and terrorism were the top concerns for GOP voters. i'm trying to expand your knowledge

Mr Ig, this is a mistake on your part. Here are some of the reasons:

1) There was very little difference on policy stances related to the economy/terrorism when it came to the major candidates. All of them called for marginal income tax rate cuts, an end to the PPACA, and being "REALLY TOUGH" on terrorism/terrorists. By contrast, there was a big difference between Trump and the rest on illegal immigration, a top 5-issue for Republican voters in all major polling. The only candidate who came close to Trump on that issue was Cruz, who was unelectable.

2) Exit polling in all Republican primaries showed Trump with massive advantages among those voters who gave "illegal immigration" as their #1 issue. For example, Trump got 53% of the vote in New Hampshire among those who gave "illegal immigration" as their #1 issue, with Cruz coming in #2 at 21% and everyone else in the single digits.

 

[Anung Un Rama]

Can you imagine what this guy will look during a debate in the General?

 

[Eusung]

Yang is looking to pass Beto and Booker in the polls soon (I saw him tied with them at #6, whereas before he was usually tailing 1% behind them). Also, he killed it in his DNC speech - you could see them warming up to him.

 

[waiguoren]

Biden can't remember Obama's name:

 

[Mcountry]

Harris couldn't handle Tulsi so the DNC got rid of her

 

[Danger Dave]

great, another debate where they all try to out crazy each other.

Why cant we get a normal human run for president.

 

[Anung Un Rama]

http://emersonpolling.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/47/2019/08/augustprimary.png
@Leagon

Your boy Yang (I like him, too) overtook that tool Buttigieg. So thats good.

 

[Leagon]

http://emersonpolling.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/47/2019/08/augustprimary.png
@Leagon

Your boy Yang (I like him, too) overtook that tool Buttigieg. So thats good.

Nice. Though I like Buttigieg too, haha. At least in how he matches up with Donald.

 

[Kona Bear]

Harris couldn't handle Tulsi so the DNC got rid of her

Wouldn’t be surprised if Williamson attempts to cast down a Winter Orb on the 3rd debate.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.fo...williamson-powerful-forces-left-president.amp

 

[xcvbn]

Biden can't remember Obama's name:

I almost feel bad that the liberal elites are forcing an obviously unhealthy old man out there. But that's what happens when you sell your sell to corporate power.

Bernie v Warren is gonna be a tough fight I didn't expect. Probably the toughest matchup possible for Bernie.

 

[method115]

I almost feel bad that the liberal elites are forcing an obviously unhealthy old man out there. But that's what happens when you sell your sell to corporate power.

Bernie v Warren is gonna be a tough fight I didn't expect. Probably the toughest matchup possible for Bernie.

Yea Bernie is going to have a tough time with Warren. I think Bernie comes off better in debates but Warren isn't bad.

Rumors are that Obama tried to tell Biden not to run. Some suspect it was because he didn't want Biden to embarrass him (Obama) or that maybe he knows about Biden's declining mental state.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics...joe-biden-campaign-legacy-2020-bts-nr-vpx.cnn

 

[Mcountry]

DNC will push Warren. Bernie hasn't a prayer

 

[Jack V Savage]

It's pretty obvious that you haven't made a serious effort to understand what happened in the 2016 Republican primary. In a nutshell, illegal immigration was the #1 issue, and Trump dominated on that issue. On other major issues, his outsider status and skilled obfuscation/grandstanding allowed him to muddy the waters.

People who think the Republicans were just hungry for a promiscuous reality TV host are sadly mistaken. The primary was largely about policy and primary voters's dissatisfaction with the so-called "RINO"s. One would have had to monitor sites like Breitbart, Daily Caller and listen to talk shows like Rush Limbaugh's in order to understand.

I would have expected a little more sophistication from you here. Surely you acknowledge that the large field combined with name recognition played a role in his success (and more generally that there were many factors in the result, or any political result). Further, I'd expect you to be aware that the kind of polls you reference in the first paragraph have dubious value, given that voters tend to rationalize their emotionally chosen picks. If Trump were to insist that eliminating the Corrodium 3 deduction was absolutely necessary, a significant portion of voters would cite that as their top issue, and polls would show that voters who had it as their top issue overwhelmingly favored Trump. Now that's surely not the only factor here--racial panic was a real thing, and Trump did benefit from it. But the issue is more complicated than you're acknowledging.

 

[Happy Man]

DNC will push Warren. Bernie hasn't a prayer

They know bernie is the real deal. A die hard that can make life miserable for them.

Warren is a opportunist, who i think doesn’t really believe the shit she says.

She just wants power. The powers that be know it.

Her claiming Native American heritage was all the proof they needed that she will do anything to get ahead.

She’s shameless. And notice that the establishment goons on this forum prefer warren to Bernie as well. They understand this. She’s no threat to the system.

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

Anyone seen updated 2nd choice polling?

 

[Javelina]

i'd support seeing tulsi all oiled up again

 

[BarryDillon]

Beat Trump in 2020 or we’re permafucked. We’re already fairly fucked.

Interesting. I wasn't aware of this totally new information, and viewpoint, until just now. Thank you for opening my eyes to the fact that we need to beat Trump.

I truly appreciate it.

 

[waiguoren]

Surely you acknowledge that the large field combined with name recognition played a role in his success

Name recognition cannot be decoupled from the brash "outsider, successful businessman" perception.

I don't think the large field mattered under most configurations. Which specific smaller field do you think Trump would have struggled with? Do you think Rubio would have beaten Trump head-to-head? If so, I think you're badly out of touch with the talk radio/Breitbart base.

there were many factors in the result, or any political result

Of course yes.

Further, I'd expect you to be aware that the kind of polls you reference in the first paragraph have dubious value, given that voters tend to rationalize their emotionally chosen picks.

Trump got 35% of the vote in NH but 53% of the vote among those for whom illegal immigration was the top issue. I agree that there is a serious extent to which voters pick candidate X for superficial/tribal or other reasons and then decide that candidate X's top issue is the most important (I also note that you appear to see yourself as different from others in this respect, reversing the direction.)

However, here is why I think the immigration policy-->candidate direction was powerful in that race. I kept tabs on the most popular anti-Democratic Party voices (e.g., Levin, Limbaugh, Coulter, Breitbart, Hannity, Beck, Gallagher, Hewitt) during that cycle before Trump's entrance and noticed that most of them were attacking "RINOs" and looking for an "outsider" who would keep with their vision on the illegal immigration issue. These people and their listeners expressed disgust consistently with candidates like Rubio for joining with the Democrats on the Gang of Eight bill.

racial panic was a real thing, and Trump did benefit from it

Explain.

the issue is more complicated than you're acknowledging.

No, I acknowledge it's very complicated. My point is that policy was a giant factor and most people who are out of touch with Republican voters are unaware of that.