Elections 2020 Democratic Primary Thread: All Candidate's Plans to End Gun Violence

Discussion in 'The War Room' started by Lead, Apr 27, 2019.

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2019 WR Democratic Straw Poll (Pick Up to 3)

Poll closed May 7, 2019.
  1. Joe Biden (Former Vice President)

    13.8%
  2. Bernie Sanders (Senator VT)

    58.6%
  3. Elizabeth Warren (Senator MA)

    27.6%
  4. Kamala Harris (Senator CA)

    4.6%
  5. Corey Booker (Senator NJ)

    1.1%
  6. Amy Klobuchar (Senator MN)

    2.3%
  7. Kirsten Gillibrand (Senator NY)

    1.1%
  8. Julian Castro (Former Secretary of HUD)

    4.6%
  9. Tim Ryan (US Congressman OH)

    4.6%
  10. Tulsi Gabbard (US Congresswoman HI)

    40.2%
  11. John Delaney (US Congressman MD)

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  12. Eric Swalwell (US Congressman CA)

    1.1%
  13. Pete Buttigieg (Mayor South Bend, IN)

    21.8%
  14. Mike Gravel (Former Senator AK)

    2.3%
  15. John Hickenlooper (Former Governor CO)

    1.1%
  16. Jay Islee (Former Governor WA)

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  17. Beto O'Rourke (Former US Congressman TX)

    2.3%
  18. Andrew Yang (Entrepreneur)

    25.3%
  19. Marianne Williamson (Entrepreneur)

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  20. Wayne Messam (Mayor Miramar, FL)

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  21. Steve Bullock (Governor MT) *Hasn't decided yet*

    1.1%
  22. Michael Bennet (Senator CO) *Hasn't decided yet*

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  23. Bill DeBlasio (Mayor New York, NY) *Hasn't decided yet*

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  24. Other (Please Post)

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  25. I do not like any of the option in the 2020 Democratic Primary

    10.3%
Multiple votes are allowed.
  1. Fawlty

    Fawlty a fond farewell

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    A bigger thing than this specific instance with Sanders is that his rhetoric is just generally sloppy and outdated. It's a negative for me, I want somebody who is on the ball and cares more about being factual. Sanders cares more about the populist message, but our country has already taken on too much water on that side. That tendency is maybe the biggest reason he's down in the pack with Biden and Klobuchar for me, in that #3-5 spot below Warren and Pete.
     
    kpt018 likes this.
  2. Jack V Savage

    Jack V Savage Secretary of Keepin' It Real/Nicest Guy on Sherdog

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    The WHO has nine other countries being an exception. I agree that if you change his statement to fix the (very large) errors, it is not inaccurate, though. There are many other potential fixes you could have offered, also. I don't agree that trying to spin or mislead about inaccurate statements made by politicians is a productive activity, though.
     
    Last edited: Aug 12, 2019 at 12:45 PM
  3. waiguoren

    waiguoren Silver Belt

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    There were no "very large errors". By the standards of normal political discourse, his statement was accurate. Claiming that nine other countries are exceptions is also misleading as the data aren't precise and six of nine are almost certainly within the margin of error. Willful misunderstanding won't get you far in life. Nitpicking a minor discrepancy to attack the position of a candidate you don't like makes you appear petty.
     
  4. Jack V Savage

    Jack V Savage Secretary of Keepin' It Real/Nicest Guy on Sherdog

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    He said that we paid more than double per-capita for healthcare what any other country pays, which is very inaccurate.

    QUOTE="waiguoren, post: 154202481, member: 232154"]By the standards of normal political discourse, his statement was accurate. Claiming that nine other countries are exceptions is also misleading as the data aren't precise and six of nine are almost certainly within the margin of error. Willful misunderstanding won't get you far in life. Nitpicking a minor discrepancy to attack the position of a candidate you don't like makes you appear petty.[/QUOTE]

    If you're positing such a large margin, it's possibly more than nine. Maybe the claim that we pay more than double the developed-country median is wrong, too. You're again denying the possibility of objective knowledge and arguing, essentially, that if you don't like the facts, you should just be allowed to make up new ones. Also, I don't dislike Bernie. You're assuming I must because you don't seem to be able to get your head around anyone genuinely carrying about accuracy. This is the exact sort of barbarism I mentioned in the Lounge.
     
  5. waiguoren

    waiguoren Silver Belt

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    It was a vague statement, which means that multiple interpretations are possible. I offered two reasonable interpretations under which it's true or very likely true. In your preferred interpretation, it's false but very close to true. You're nitpicking. We could find statements of Elizabeth, your favorite candidate, that are very nearly true but not quite and I think it's unlikely you would put so much time into pointing out that she was wrong.
     
  6. Jack V Savage

    Jack V Savage Secretary of Keepin' It Real/Nicest Guy on Sherdog

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    It actually isn't, though. There's zero ambiguity in it, though I understand that the campaign later "clarified" that he meant something other than what he has been saying consistently over the past decade.

    It doesn't take any time, and the statement is simply false by a big margin. If Warren says something false, I don't try to deny it, and no one else does either.
     
  7. waiguoren

    waiguoren Silver Belt

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    This is your best argument. The campaign "clarified" the statement to mean something completely different, assuming CNN's reporting is accurate (important disclaimer). On this, we agree.

    Wrong.

    If Warren said something which was vague but true under many interpretations, and some website accused her of telling falsehoods, I do think you would defend her. I hope you would.
     
  8. Jack V Savage

    Jack V Savage Secretary of Keepin' It Real/Nicest Guy on Sherdog

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    Sure. But if she said something that was actually false, like Bernie did when he said that we pay more than double on a per-capita basis for healthcare what any other country pays, I would not defend her. I can say straight up that I think she made a false statement about Michael Brown. I linked to an analysis showing that her analysis in the Two-Income Trap was flawed to the point that it can simply be said to be false. You're wrong when you assume that I wouldn't acknowledge factual errors she makes.
     
    Last edited: Aug 12, 2019 at 5:34 PM
    Fawlty likes this.
  9. waiguoren

    waiguoren Silver Belt

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    At least we have located our disagreement.

    I think that "we spend 2x any other country per capita on health care" can be reasonably be interpreted as "our people's median OOP health care spending is 2x any other nation's" or "our private spending on health care is 2x as much as any other nation", while you take a very narrow interpretation.

    Even though I find your position here ridiculous, I won't attribute your taking that position to malice.

    ---------------------

    New Politico/Morning Consult poll, Sanders +1, Warren -1, Buttigieg -1, Harris even, Biden even


    2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination | Politico/Morning Consult | Biden 33, Warren 14, Sanders 20, Harris 9, Buttigieg 5, O'Rourke 3, Booker 3, Yang 2, Gabbard 1, Klobuchar 1, Castro 1, Steyer 1, Bullock 1 Biden +13
     
    Last edited: Aug 13, 2019 at 10:00 AM
  10. superpunch

    superpunch Silver Belt

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    The forgive all student loan debt ideas have me disgusted. It sounds good if you live in a bubble only with other people that went to college. I'm usually like that. I recently went back and lived in my hometown for 6 months. I worked in restaurants for a little bit. There were a lot of people I grew up with that didn't take out loans to go to college and struggle working low wage jobs. There were immigrants working as chefs. Stealing from these people to pay for your debts for an education they never got is just wrong.
     
  11. method115

    method115 Titanium Belt

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    Agreed but is the money going to come from these people? I haven't heard how they plan on paying for it. If they take it from the MIC then I'm ok with it.
     
  12. Trotsky

    Trotsky Yellow Card Yellow Card

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    It's more about unlocking the labor force and economy than instituting social equity. Odious student loan debt locks people into jobs, prevents them from buying houses and cars, and transfers billions of dollars a year in interest payments to loan processors. Personally, I would be more comfortable with partial forgiveness of a certain percentage (so that there are still disincentives to borrowing more than is needed) along with the complete abolition of student loan interest. The fact that someone with $100,000 in debt is going to pay $7,000 a year just in interest while trying to pay it down is absurd.

    However, regardless, persons working low-paying jobs won't be the ones subsidizing loan forgiveness, obviously.
     
  13. Trotsky

    Trotsky Yellow Card Yellow Card

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    Also, I bought a Julian Castro campaign shirt just so I could have a "Castro 2020" shirt as a novelty.

    #FidelVive
     
  14. PEB

    PEB Atomic Butt Drop Champ :)

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    SPACE THE FINAL FRONTIER :)
  15. waiguoren

    waiguoren Silver Belt

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    Biden has led in every major New Hampshire poll since early April. That's four months of polling.

    In one poll, he even led by 18%!

    Today, a new Gravis poll is out showing Sanders leading in New Hampshire, and Gabbard has almost caught up to Harris:

    Sanders 21
    Biden 15
    Warren 12
    Buttigieg 8
    Harris 7
    Gabbard 5
    Steyer 4
    Yang 4
    Klobuchar 4
    O'Rourke 2
    Castro 2
    Gillibrand 1
    Booker 0
     
  16. Trotsky

    Trotsky Yellow Card Yellow Card

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    There are a lot of things I question about this poll.
     
  17. waiguoren

    waiguoren Silver Belt

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    Like what?
     
  18. Trotsky

    Trotsky Yellow Card Yellow Card

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    Tom Steyer being ahead of Castro, O'Rourke, Gillibrand, and Booker. Gabbard polling at three times her national average. The overall underperformance of Gillibrand in a state that should be tailor made for her.
     
  19. waiguoren

    waiguoren Silver Belt

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    Castro hit 2% in this poll. That's his best performance in any of the 18 polls this entire cycle! His mode across all polls is 0% and his mean performance is .222...%.

    O'Rourke is also at 2% in this poll. He polled at 0% in a poll from last week (Boston Globe poll). O'Rourke's polling average across five polls from the last two months is 1.2%, so this poll is generous to him.

    This is Gabbard's best performance (5%) in any New Hampshire poll of the cycle, but she hit 3% in last week's Boston Globe poll. Also, it's not surprising at all that Gabbard performs better in NH than she does nation-wide.

    Gillibrand? She has been at 1% in all of the last five polls. Nothing strange here.

    Booker at 0% is a bit low, but his polling average over the last five polls is 1.2%. We aren't talking about anything shocking.

    Finally, Steyer's performance is definitely surprising. There's something we can agree on.
     
    Last edited: Aug 13, 2019 at 11:48 AM
  20. waiguoren

    waiguoren Silver Belt

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    Boom. Steyer hits the donor threshold for the September debate. Now he only needs to hit 2% in four national polls for us to see him on the debate stage.

     

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