Elections 2020 Democratic Primary Thread: Inslee and Hickenlooper out

[waiguoren]

like Bernie did when he said that we pay more than double on a per-capita basis for healthcare than any other country

At least we have located our disagreement.

I think that "we spend 2x any other country per capita on health care" can be reasonably be interpreted as "our people's median OOP health care spending is 2x any other nation's" or "our private spending on health care is 2x as much as any other nation", while you take a very narrow interpretation.

Even though I find your position here ridiculous, I won't attribute your taking that position to malice.

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New Politico/Morning Consult poll, Sanders +1, Warren -1, Buttigieg -1, Harris even, Biden even


2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination | Politico/Morning Consult | Biden 33, Warren 14, Sanders 20, Harris 9, Buttigieg 5, O'Rourke 3, Booker 3, Yang 2, Gabbard 1, Klobuchar 1, Castro 1, Steyer 1, Bullock 1 Biden +13

 

[superpunch]

The forgive all student loan debt ideas have me disgusted. It sounds good if you live in a bubble only with other people that went to college. I'm usually like that. I recently went back and lived in my hometown for 6 months. I worked in restaurants for a little bit. There were a lot of people I grew up with that didn't take out loans to go to college and struggle working low wage jobs. There were immigrants working as chefs. Stealing from these people to pay for your debts for an education they never got is just wrong.

 

[method115]

The forgive all student loan debt ideas have me disgusted. It sounds good if you live in a bubble only with other people that went to college. I'm usually like that. I recently went back and lived in my hometown for 6 months. I worked in restaurants for a little bit. There were a lot of people I grew up with that didn't take out loans to go to college and struggle working low wage jobs. There were immigrants working as chefs. Stealing from these people to pay for your debts for an education they never got is just wrong.

Agreed but is the money going to come from these people? I haven't heard how they plan on paying for it. If they take it from the MIC then I'm ok with it.

 

[Trotsky]

The forgive all student loan debt ideas have me disgusted. It sounds good if you live in a bubble only with other people that went to college. I'm usually like that. I recently went back and lived in my hometown for 6 months. I worked in restaurants for a little bit. There were a lot of people I grew up with that didn't take out loans to go to college and struggle working low wage jobs. There were immigrants working as chefs. Stealing from these people to pay for your debts for an education they never got is just wrong.

It's more about unlocking the labor force and economy than instituting social equity. Odious student loan debt locks people into jobs, prevents them from buying houses and cars, and transfers billions of dollars a year in interest payments to loan processors. Personally, I would be more comfortable with partial forgiveness of a certain percentage (so that there are still disincentives to borrowing more than is needed) along with the complete abolition of student loan interest. The fact that someone with $100,000 in debt is going to pay $7,000 a year just in interest while trying to pay it down is absurd.

However, regardless, persons working low-paying jobs won't be the ones subsidizing loan forgiveness, obviously.

 

[Trotsky]

Also, I bought a Julian Castro campaign shirt just so I could have a "Castro 2020" shirt as a novelty.

#FidelVive

 

[PEB]

 

[waiguoren]

Biden has led in every major New Hampshire poll since early April. That's four months of polling.

In one poll, he even led by 18%!

Today, a new Gravis poll is out showing Sanders leading in New Hampshire, and Gabbard has almost caught up to Harris:

Sanders 21
Biden 15
Warren 12
Buttigieg 8
Harris 7
Gabbard 5
Steyer 4
Yang 4
Klobuchar 4
O'Rourke 2
Castro 2
Gillibrand 1
Booker 0

 

[Trotsky]

Biden has led in every major New Hampshire poll since early April. That's four months of polling.

In one poll, he even led by 18%!

Today, a new Gravis poll is out showing Sanders leading in New Hampshire, and Gabbard has almost caught up to Harris:

Sanders 21
Biden 15
Warren 12
Buttigieg 8
Harris 7
Gabbard 5
Steyer 4
Yang 4
Klobuchar 4
O'Rourke 2
Castro 2
Gillibrand 1
Booker 0

There are a lot of things I question about this poll.

 

[waiguoren]

There are a lot of things I question about this poll.

Like what?

 

[Trotsky]

Like what?

Tom Steyer being ahead of Castro, O'Rourke, Gillibrand, and Booker. Gabbard polling at three times her national average. The overall underperformance of Gillibrand in a state that should be tailor made for her.

 

[waiguoren]

Tom Steyer being ahead of Castro, O'Rourke, Gillibrand, and Booker. Gabbard polling at three times her national average. The overall underperformance of Gillibrand in a state that should be tailor made for her.

Castro hit 2% in this poll. That's his best performance in any of the 18 polls this entire cycle! His mode across all polls is 0% and his mean performance is .222...%.

O'Rourke is also at 2% in this poll. He polled at 0% in a poll from last week (Boston Globe poll). O'Rourke's polling average across five polls from the last two months is 1.2%, so this poll is generous to him.

This is Gabbard's best performance (5%) in any New Hampshire poll of the cycle, but she hit 3% in last week's Boston Globe poll. Also, it's not surprising at all that Gabbard performs better in NH than she does nation-wide.

Gillibrand? She has been at 1% in all of the last five polls. Nothing strange here.

Booker at 0% is a bit low, but his polling average over the last five polls is 1.2%. We aren't talking about anything shocking.

Finally, Steyer's performance is definitely surprising. There's something we can agree on.

 

[waiguoren]

Boom. Steyer hits the donor threshold for the September debate. Now he only needs to hit 2% in four national polls for us to see him on the debate stage.

 

[waiguoren]

Now offering bet:

Bernard Sanders will pass Elizabeth Warren in national polling average within the next three weeks.

 

[Trotsky]

Now offering bet:

Bernard Sanders will pass Elizabeth Warren in national polling average within the next three weeks.

@Rational Poster might be interested.

 

[ObamaPhoneLady]

Seriously. These gaffs are not needle movers. It's a funny one, but he ain't gonna lose any support over it.

The problem he will run into is President Trump has already coined a perfect moniker for Biden and Biden is playing right into it.

He just comes off as a sleepy old man.

If Biden gets the nomination, people will be embarrassed to vote for him as Trump will hammer him mercilessly for that kind of shit.

He will be neutered like Jeb Bush was.

 

[waiguoren]

Bullock: DNC Rules Have Allowed Billionaire Tom Steyer To Buy A Spot On Presidential Debate Stage


Democratic governor of Montana and 2020 hopeful Steve Bullock joined MSNBC's Andrea Mitchell Tuesday to discuss reports that billionaire environmental activist Tom Steyer has qualified for the upcoming presidential primary debate.

"I'm working it every day and I have a ways to go," Bullock said about qualifying. "I think the DNC rules were well-intentioned, but what it really has done is allowed a billionaire to buy a spot on the debate stage. Tom Steyer just spent ten million dollars to get 130,000 donors. We're getting to the point where we're spending money online as opposed to actually talking to voters. The Republican Party all throughout 2015 had a 1% threshold. It is a rough day when Democrats are less inclusive than Republicans."

"Grassroots support and elections are about people to talking to people," he said. "Not billionaires being able to spend a whole lot of money to buy Facebook ads, and that's what all the campaigns are starting to do. As well-intentioned as this might be, it is not too late for the DNC... to say, 'let's make sure that it is the early state voters who take a large field and winnow it down.'"

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/v...y_his_way_onto_presidential_debate_stage.html

 

[Trotsky]

Bullock: DNC Rules Have Allowed Billionaire Tom Steyer To Buy A Spot On Presidential Debate Stage


Democratic governor of Montana and 2020 hopeful Steve Bullock joined MSNBC's Andrea Mitchell Tuesday to discuss reports that billionaire environmental activist Tom Steyer has qualified for the upcoming presidential primary debate.

"I'm working it every day and I have a ways to go," Bullock said about qualifying. "I think the DNC rules were well-intentioned, but what it really has done is allowed a billionaire to buy a spot on the debate stage. Tom Steyer just spent ten million dollars to get 130,000 donors. We're getting to the point where we're spending money online as opposed to actually talking to voters. The Republican Party all throughout 2015 had a 1% threshold. It is a rough day when Democrats are less inclusive than Republicans."

"Grassroots support and elections are about people to talking to people," he said. "Not billionaires being able to spend a whole lot of money to buy Facebook ads, and that's what all the campaigns are starting to do. As well-intentioned as this might be, it is not too late for the DNC... to say, 'let's make sure that it is the early state voters who take a large field and winnow it down.'"

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/v...y_his_way_onto_presidential_debate_stage.html

God, Bullock is such a whiny bitch. Some thresholds are necessary and good for both the party and the electorate. And the thresholds didn't "allow" Steyer to do that. They just kept Bullock from doing it as well. The alternative is letting not only Steyer, but also Bullock and all of the 18 other wannabes into every debate right up until the nomination.

 

[waiguoren]

God, Bullock is such a whiny bitch. Some thresholds are necessary and good for both the party and the electorate. And the thresholds didn't "allow" Steyer to do that. They just kept Bullock from doing it as well. The alternative is letting not only Steyer, but also Bullock and all of the 18 other wannabes into every debate right up until the nomination.

I think Bullock has a point about the donor threshold. That part allows a rich man to "buy" donors online, as it appears Steyer has done.

I agree with you that it would be silly to keep the polling threshold at 1% the entire time. Assuming Bullock is correct about the Republicans in 2016, well, is that what the Democrats really want to re-create? Too many candidates on stage prevents depth of discussion and drives the "debate" more toward 'gotcha' moments and "zingers".

I also agree with you that Bullock is pretty much doomed to "wannabe" status regardless of what he does. There are too many candidates and he just doesn't stand out.

 

[Trotsky]

I think Bullock has a point about the donor threshold. That part allows a rich man to "buy" donors online, as it appears Steyer has done.

I agree with you that it would be silly to keep the polling threshold at 1% the entire time. Assuming Bullock is correct about the Republicans in 2016, well, is that what the Democrats really want to re-create? Too many candidates on stage prevents depth of discussion and drives the "debate" more toward 'gotcha' moments and "zingers".

I also agree with you that Bullock is pretty much doomed to "wannabe" status regardless of what he does. There are too many candidates and he just doesn't stand out.

But that threshold is just a minimum for entry. It doesn't allow him to do anything: it just keeps him off the stage unless he does it. If it were just the donor requirement that propelled candidates to the stage, then Bullock would have a point. But Steyer has to satisfy both the donor requirement and the polling requirement, neither of which Bullock has satisfied iirc. Bullock isn't asking for criteria which excludes billionaires: he's asking for criteria which includes billionaires but also includes him as well.

Imo it's pure sour grapes by Bullock and that's been his story this entire primary: bitching and moaning and blaming the DNC for him not being popular at the national level. That video he released about being screwed over by the DNC because he couldn't break the top 20 was mega-cringe.

 

[waiguoren]

But that threshold is just a minimum for entry. It doesn't allow him to do anything: it just keeps him off the stage unless he does it. If it were just the donor requirement that propelled candidates to the stage, then Bullock would have a point. But Steyer has to satisfy both the donor requirement and the polling requirement, neither of which Bullock has satisfied iirc. Bullock isn't asking for criteria which excludes billionaires: he's asking for criteria which includes billionaires but also includes him as well.

I think the sensible version of Bullock's point is: Steyer just bought his way through the donor threshold and can probably also meet the polling threshold through massive ad buys. Less-rich candidates like me with low name recognition can't compete with that.

Of course, I think he overestimates his chances to gain momentum via "debating" with nine other candidates on stage and through campaign events, but I can't blame a guy for believing in himself.

That video he released about being screwed over by the DNC because he couldn't break the top 20 was mega-cringe.

Didn't see that one.