-1000 betting odds for Rousey? Value in betting on Holm?

Discussion in 'UFC Discussion' started by George Jetson, Aug 24, 2015.

  1. George Jetson

    George Jetson Orange Belt

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2015
    Messages:
    468
    Likes Received:
    8
    Holm is a great boxer and could easily out-point Ronda if she could last for 5 rounds on the feet.

    However, without one-punch KO power there's no other way to win except by points.

    So why the steep odds?

    Because a conservative guess would say that Ronda would force an 'exchange' with Holm at least 4 times per minute (since Ronda's an active fighter).

    Over 25 minutes, that means Holm would face a minimum of 100 different exchanges with Ronda (or more) where she'd have to carefully avoid clinching EVERY single time.

    ...And while she can theoretically use jabs and footwork to circle away successfully during a few of those exchanges, it's virtually impossible to think she can do it for all 100 exchanges.

    Therein lies the problem for Holly.

    History has taught us that guys like JDS can get away from Cain's clinches and TD's several times during a fight, but a bullrusher like Cain will eventually get a hold of you if he keeps trying (especially when you tire out).

    Some MMA analysts think Ronda may get tired or discouraged and give up on clinching altogether if she can be stuffed for a round or two.

    But if you watch the video below Ronda doesn't ever give up trying to clinch.



    Go to 3:07 on the above video.

    At the 3:07 mark, Ronda is exhausted and has just 30 seconds left before Edith Bosch beats her in the 2007 world championships.

    But if you look at Ronda's eyes, you'll see she has no quit in her. ...And in the final seconds of the match she throws Edith Bosch for Ippon and wins.

    But hasn't Holm avoided every clinch and TD in her previous UFC fights?

    Answer: Reneau and Pennington are 2 very crude grapplers with poor takedown skills. Reneau's a BJJ brown belt but has poor wrestling and takedowns. Pennington has even poorer grappling.

    Ronda is not just a step up.

    Ronda's grappling is 10 steps up from them.

    Sarah Kaufman was trained by Greg Jackson and had a brown belt in BJJ when she faced Ronda -- yet she got sub'd in less than a minute.

    Holm's grappling might be okay but she's not going to outgrapple Sarah Kaufman even.

    I just don't see any bets on Holm paying off. I don't see any value in Holm on this fight.

    Now Amanda Nunes would have value against Ronda, cuz she has 1 punch KO power and has a chance to KO Ronda when she tries to clinch. Holm doesn't.
     
  2. lifelessheap

    lifelessheap Gold Belt

    Joined:
    Jan 15, 2009
    Messages:
    15,218
    Likes Received:
    18,938
    Clinch.
    Toss.
    Sub.

    Odds makers aren't dumb.


    Ronda will stalk Holm like a T-800.
     
  3. RoryMacdonald

    RoryMacdonald Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Jan 31, 2015
    Messages:
    1,751
    Likes Received:
    28
    You expect Holm to win a decision? I want to know what the odds are that the fight is under 60 seconds.
     
  4. Peteyandjia

    Peteyandjia Winter Orchid Staff Member Forum Administrator

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2007
    Messages:
    77,898
    Likes Received:
    102,496
    Location:
    Mountain Bar
    I agree with your answer to yourself.
     
  5. SlowMotion

    SlowMotion Green Belt

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2010
    Messages:
    1,139
    Likes Received:
    0
    You will be shocked how quickly you go broke chasing those big payout odds. Yes, Ronda will lose eventually, but you won't have any money left by that point if you keep betting against her because you can't resist the chance of a huge payout.
     
  6. BJPenn2012

    BJPenn2012 Double Yellow Card Double Yellow Card

    Joined:
    Feb 27, 2012
    Messages:
    3,941
    Likes Received:
    654
    Location:
    Cananada
    They're obviously putting Holm in there before she develops any skills to be a true threat, wouldn't doubt it if Nunes never saw a fight with Rousey.. Too much KO power, too much risk she took out McMann without the help of ol Herb "best for business" Dean.
     
  7. slyslickNwicked

    slyslickNwicked Brown Belt Platinum Member

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2014
    Messages:
    3,399
    Likes Received:
    13
    Cause Jack Slack and a lot of sherbros said its one of the best way to challenge or beat Ronda, is to use teh Jab and Footwork: Stick and Move

    Meisha(not the most athletic BW) was able to close distance and got some takedowns on Eye(moves ver well), and people believe Holms can do that for 25 mins.

    Holms can use the jab and footwork and still lose a decision, hard to win when your jabbing the air( Aish Aish)

    Holms can give Cybro a way more challenging fight.
     
  8. MilesAbove

    MilesAbove Gold Belt

    Joined:
    Aug 13, 2013
    Messages:
    22,239
    Likes Received:
    9,003
    Way to fall for Vegas' ploy, TS. The reason it's set at such a number is to entice you to bet Holm.... so the number can fall, and then others will find value in the certainty of Rousey... and Vegas wins again.
     
  9. Post 2 Decision

    Post 2 Decision Red Belt

    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2014
    Messages:
    9,463
    Likes Received:
    19,423
    Location:
    604
    Opening bell sounds
    Ronda rushes forward
    Walks through some punches
    Clinches
    Tosses
    And then....


    IT'S ALLLLLL OVER!
     
  10. slyslickNwicked

    slyslickNwicked Brown Belt Platinum Member

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2014
    Messages:
    3,399
    Likes Received:
    13
    Also Ronda seems to be in better shape now then when she had to gain weight for the Olympics
     
  11. Shwartz

    Shwartz Green Belt

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    1,472
    Likes Received:
    5
    I'm sorry, TS, I've stopped reading your post right here. You should definitely bet on Holm because Ronda fans really need to get some better odds.
     
  12. Jermei

    Jermei Steel Belt Platinum Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2008
    Messages:
    25,389
    Likes Received:
    23,495
    Ronda by armbar, sorry Rickson.
     
  13. TheLuckiest

    TheLuckiest Black Belt

    Joined:
    Jun 20, 2010
    Messages:
    6,774
    Likes Received:
    3,018
    Location:
    Podunk, Tennessee
    I first read this trying to figure out what the question that needed answering is.

    This explains my confusion.

    TY, Petey.
     
  14. garwoc

    garwoc Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Jun 7, 2010
    Messages:
    4,424
    Likes Received:
    297
    Location:
    Mallorca
    You should read his full post before commenting.

    He's saying how it would be pretty much impossible for Holm to win by outpointing her on the feet.
     
  15. JayElectra

    JayElectra Paper Belt Banned

    Joined:
    Feb 9, 2010
    Messages:
    33,383
    Likes Received:
    2,189
    I was expecting something closer to -2500.
     
  16. cakemuncher

    cakemuncher Black Belt

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2013
    Messages:
    6,078
    Likes Received:
    9,444
    This is some deep sh1t analysis. Only on sherdog.
     
  17. Mixedfights

    Mixedfights Silver Belt

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2014
    Messages:
    14,678
    Likes Received:
    14,267
    -1000 go for it dude. Its all you.

    The odds are so big because the fight is a joke, just like the last one.
     
  18. mikenason

    mikenason TOUGH GUY

    Joined:
    Jul 8, 2007
    Messages:
    3,846
    Likes Received:
    995
    Location:
    Pasadena
    Even though Ronda was -1000 against Beth.. I still picked Ronda and won $1,000
     
  19. cungfu

    cungfu Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Dec 6, 2012
    Messages:
    1,791
    Likes Received:
    1,038
    Even though Holm is a good boxer, Ronda will just walk through her pillow punches. Holm's best bet is a high kick KO.
     
  20. Singlelegsweep

    Singlelegsweep Blue Belt

    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2015
    Messages:
    519
    Likes Received:
    7
    Location:
    Arizona
    If you're looking for this type of bet PVS is a -1600 favorite for some reason in her next fight which I'd only give her a slight edge in.

    WMMA is like female Tennis, there are no safe bets, And Ronda is Williams... The only one I wouldn't really bet against.

    $9 on Valerie Letourneau just got me $18
    $10 on Nunes just got me $22.50

    Betting on female underdogs isn't a bad idea, I just wouldn't do it against Ronda
     

Share This Page

  1. This site uses cookies to help personalise content, tailor your experience and to keep you logged in if you register.
    By continuing to use this site, you are consenting to our use of cookies.