Your Official UFN 112 Bets | Page 3

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Jun 20, 2017.

  1. Shoulder #29 most average paid MMA bettor on Sherdog.

    Shoulder
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    My first winning UFC event after six or seven losing ones in a row.

    Lee 2U@1.87
    Christensen 0.5U
    Tim Means R3 0.2U
    Lb -0.2U so about a unit up.
     
    #41
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  2. Sham5916910 Yellow Card

    Sham5916910
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    Didn't post my bet in here but i was pretty open about being on Means + Vettori in the chat. Not betting Vettori again that gas tank is a serious liability. I think Means felt Garcia's power in r1 so it made him hesitant. And damn Means' tdd was outstanding i thought he'd get taken down but he stuffed every td. Would have taken Reyes over Means if he was -200 certainly would have made me sweat less! Won over £800 on lb thanks to Guida +260 early r2 so should have gone bigger! The Barbarian @ -110 during r1 and +113 early r2 was free money much like Guida! Shame i threw some away betting on BJ after r2 lol! All good tho another massive night.

    Edit: How could i forget i got Herrig +225 end of r1!
     
    #42
    Last edited: Jun 26, 2017
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  3. NorthernLights Orange Belt

    NorthernLights
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    1.75u Boetsch - 3.45 + 4.5u Hendricks - 1.62
    2.25u Koch - 1.45

    2u Means - 1.50
    1.5u Penn - 2.60
    1u Lee - 1.87
    1u Kimball - 2.60

    0.5u Hendricks/Boetsch o2.5 - 1.62
    0.5u Means ITD - 1.83
    0.5u Means ITD + Horcher - 2.30

    0.5u Esparza DEC + Lee/Chiesa ends ITD - 2.59
    0.25u Penn DEC - 5.00
    0.25u Koch ITD - 2.37
    0.25u Penn DEC + Hendricks/Boetsch o2.5 + Koch ITD - 22.62

    0.25u Lee ITD - 2.70
    0.25u Christensen - 3.83
    0.1u Means R3 - 12.00


    Total: -2,16u

    [​IMG]
    Putting money on BJ Penn in 2017, buying out of your Boetsch bet, going way to big on Koch despite a shitty line
     
    #43
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  4. Wiktoruspro Orange Belt

    Wiktoruspro
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  5. Polarize Green Belt

    Polarize
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    -6u, I barely recovered some losses livebetting and of course I ended losing a bit with Penn....
     
    #45
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  6. BigNick100 Blue Belt

    BigNick100
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    .10u to win $284
    Sonnen wins by 3 round decision +331
    Bader / Davis goes 5 round distance -165

    Means wins in round 2 +325 - Pending

    and

    .10u to win $561
    Sonnen wins by 3 round decision +331
    Bader / Davis goes 5 round distance -165

    Means wins in round 3 +725 - Pending


    $15.00 to win $42.70 Pending 4 Team Parlay
    Pending 6/25/17 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1402 Tim Means -250* vs Alex Garcia
    Pending 6/25/17 8:30pm UFC Fighting 1602 Erik Koch -340* vs Clay Guida
    Pending 6/25/17 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1702 Marvin Vettori -365* vs Vitor Miranda
    Win 6/24/17 9:30pm MMA Props Fighting
    3403 Bader / Davis goes 5 round distance -150*

    $40.00 to win $47.17 Pending 2 Team Parlay
    Pending 6/25/17 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1802 Carla Esparza -210* vs Maryna Moroz
    Pending 6/25/17 5:30pm UFC Fighting 9999 Marvin Vettori -210* vs Vitor Miranda

    $40.00 to win $40.52 Pending 2 Team Parlay
    Pending 6/25/17 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1302 Dominick Reyes -275* vs Joachim Christensen
    Pending 6/25/17 5:30pm UFC Fighting 9999 Marvin Vettori -210* vs Vitor Miranda

    $35.00 to win $69.00 Pending 3 Team Parlay
    Pending 6/25/17 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1302 Dominick Reyes -275* vs Joachim Christensen
    Pending 6/25/17 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1802 Carla Esparza -210* vs Maryna Moroz
    Pending 6/25/17 5:30pm UFC Fighting 9999 Marvin Vettori -210* vs Vitor Miranda


    20.00 to win $35.45 Pending 3 Team Parlay
    Pending 6/25/17 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1302 Dominick Reyes -275* vs Joachim Christensen
    Pending 6/25/17 8:30pm UFC Fighting 1602 Erik Koch -265* vs Clay Guida
    Pending 6/25/17 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1802 Carla Esparza -210* vs Maryna Moroz

    $15.00 to win $46.25 Pending 4 Team Parlay
    Pending 6/25/17 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1302 Dominick Reyes -275* vs Joachim Christensen
    Pending 6/25/17 8:30pm UFC Fighting 1602 Erik Koch -215* vs Clay Guida
    Pending 6/25/17 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1802 Carla Esparza -210* vs Maryna Moroz
    Pending 6/25/17 7:30pm UFC Fighting 1902 Darrell Horcher -260* vs Devin Powell


    $25.00 to win $44.66 Pending 3 Team Parlay
    Pending 6/25/17 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1201 Justine Kish/Felice Herrig Over 2½ -270*
    Pending 6/25/17 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1801 Maryna Moroz/Carla Esparza Over 2½ -265*
    Pending 6/25/17 5:30pm UFC Fighting 9999 Marvin Vettori -210* vs Vitor Miranda


    $9.62 to win $26.70 Pending 3 Team Parlay
    Pending 6/25/17 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1201 Justine Kish/Felice Herrig Over 2½ -270*
    Pending 6/25/17 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1801 Maryna Moroz/Carla Esparza Over 2½ -265*

    Pending 6/25/17 7:00pm UFC Fighting 2001 Michel Quinones +100* vs Jared Gordon

    $13.75 to win $29.96 Pending 3 Team Parlay
    Pending 6/25/17 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1201 Justine Kish/Felice Herrig Over 2½ -270*
    Pending 6/25/17 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1801 Maryna Moroz/Carla Esparza Over 2½ -210*

    Pending 6/25/17 7:00pm UFC Fighting 2001 Michel Quinones/Jared Gordon Over 2½ -175*

    $10.00 to win $45.62 Pending 5 Team Parlay
    Pending 6/25/17 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1201 Justine Kish/Felice Herrig Over 2½ -280*
    Pending 6/25/17 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1302 Dominick Reyes -290* vs Joachim Christensen
    Pending 6/25/17 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1801 Maryna Moroz/Carla Esparza Over 2½ -245*
    Pending 6/25/17 7:30pm UFC Fighting 1902 Darrell Horcher -335* vs Devin Powell
    Win 6/24/17 9:30pm Bellator Fighting 3401 Ryan Bader/Phil Davis Over 4½ -150*


    $10.00 to win $19.32 Pending 4 Team Parlay

    Pending 6/25/17 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1302 Dominick Reyes -370* vs Joachim Christensen
    Pending 6/25/17 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1402 Tim Means -250* vs Alex Garcia

    Pending 6/25/17 8:30pm UFC Fighting 1602 Erik Koch -340* vs Clay Guida
    Pending 6/25/17 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1702 Marvin Vettori -365* vs Vitor Miranda

    $30.00 to win $37.36 Pending 4 Team Parlay
    Pending 6/25/17 9:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1537 Penn / Siver starts round 2 -332* vs Fight won’t start round 2
    Pending 6/25/17 8:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1637 Guida / Koch starts round 2 -412* vs Fight won’t start round 2
    Pending 6/25/17 7:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1837 Moroz / Esparza starts round 2 -680* vs Fight won’t start round 2
    Pending 6/25/17 6:30pm MMA Props Fighting 2037 Quinones / Gordon starts round 2 -475* vs Fight won’t start round 2


    $15.00 to win $40.16 Pending 6 Team Parlay
    Pending 6/25/17 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1302 Dominick Reyes -360* vs Joachim Christensen
    Pending 6/25/17 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1702 Marvin Vettori -355* vs Vitor Miranda
    Pending 6/25/17 9:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1537 Penn / Siver starts round 2 -332* vs Fight won’t start round 2
    Pending 6/25/17 8:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1637 Guida / Koch starts round 2 -412* vs Fight won’t start round 2
    Pending 6/25/17 7:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1837 Moroz / Esparza starts round 2 -680* vs Fight won’t start round 2
    Pending 6/25/17 6:30pm MMA Props Fighting 2037 Quinones / Gordon starts round 2 -475* vs Fight won’t start round 2


    $12.15 to win $86.19 Pending 8 Team Parlay
    Pending 6/25/17 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1302 Dominick Reyes -335* vs Joachim Christensen
    Win 6/24/17 9:30pm MMA Props Fighting 3403 Bader / Davis goes 5 round distance -165* vs Fight won’t go 5 round distance
    Pending 6/25/17 10:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1237 Kish / Herrig starts round 2 -790* vs Fight won’t start round 2

    Pending 6/25/17 9:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1409 Means wins inside distance -150* vs Not Means inside distance
    Pending 6/25/17 9:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1537 Penn / Siver starts round 2 -370* vs Fight won’t start round 2
    Pending 6/25/17 7:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1837 Moroz / Esparza starts round 2 -725* vs Fight won’t start round 2
    Pending 6/25/17 6:30pm MMA Props Fighting 2037 Quinones / Gordon starts round 2 -491* vs Fight won’t start round 2
    Pending 6/25/17 6:00pm MMA Props Fighting 2137 Martin / Case starts round 2 -532* vs Fight won’t start round 2


    $10.00 to win $105.79 Pending 5 Team Parlay
    Pending 6/25/17 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1302 Dominick Reyes -360* vs Joachim Christensen
    Pending 6/25/17 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1501 BJ Penn +145* vs Dennis Siver
    Pending 6/25/17 8:30pm UFC Fighting 1602 Erik Koch -340* vs Clay Guida

    Pending 6/25/17 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1702 Marvin Vettori -370* vs Vitor Miranda
    Pending 6/25/17 6:30pm UFC Fighting 2001 Michel Quinones +125* vs Jared Gordon

    $10.00 to win $433.17 Pending 10 Team Parlay
    Pending 6/25/17 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1001 Mike Chiesa +110* vs Kevin Lee
    Pending 6/25/17 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1302 Dominick Reyes -360* vs Joachim Christensen
    Pending 6/25/17 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1501 BJ Penn +145* vs Dennis Siver
    Pending 6/25/17 8:30pm UFC Fighting 1602 Erik Koch -340* vs Clay Guida

    Pending 6/25/17 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1702 Marvin Vettori -370* vs Vitor Miranda
    Pending 6/25/17 6:30pm UFC Fighting 2001 Michel Quinones +125* vs Jared Gordon
    Pending 6/25/17 11:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1137 Boetsch / Hendricks starts round 2 -480* vs Fight won’t start round 2
    Pending 6/25/17 10:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1237 Kish / Herrig starts round 2 -695* vs Fight won’t start round 2
    Pending 6/25/17 7:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1837 Moroz / Esparza starts round 2 -776* vs Fight won’t start round 2
    Pending 6/25/17 6:00pm MMA Props Fighting 2137 Martin / Case starts round 2 -595* vs Fight won’t start round 2


    Straight bets

    $15.00 $19.50 Pending 6/25/17 6:30pm UFC Fighting 2001 Michel Quinones +130* vs Jared Gordon
    $31.25 $25.00 Pending 6/25/17 7:00pm UFC Fighting 2001 Michel Quinones -125* vs Jared Gordon
    $10.00 $33.00 Pending 6/25/17 6:30pm MMA Props Fighting 2007 Quinones wins by 3 round decision +330* vs Not Quinones by 3 round decision
    $15.00 $47.10 Pending 6/25/17 6:30pm MMA Props Fighting 2007 Quinones wins by 3 round decision +314* vs Not Quinones by 3 round decision


    $25.00 $43.75 Pending 6/25/17 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1501 BJ Penn +175* vs Dennis Siver
    $15.97 $26.35 Pending 6/25/17 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1501 BJ Penn +165* vs Dennis Siver

    $20.00 $95.00 Pending 6/25/17 9:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1423 Means wins in round 2 +475* vs Any other result
    $15.00 $127.50 Pending 6/25/17 9:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1425 Means wins in round 3 +850* vs Any other result


    I got a lot riding on Means in round 2/3. I had a good night last night with Bellator and with some other bets some went a little happy with the parlays again, good luck all.


    Live bets -

    $15.00 to win $24.00 Win 6/25/17 8:30pm Live In-Play Fighting 1601 Clay Guida +160*

    $20.00 to win $220.00 $0.00 Loss 6/25/17 8:00pm Live In-Play Fighting 1701 Vitor Miranda +1100*

    $10.00 to win $25.00 $0.00 Loss 6/25/17 5:30pm MMA Props Fighting 2207 Stansbury wins by 3 round decision +250


    Total = Plus 35.75
     
    #46
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  7. timmyclax22 Blue Belt

    timmyclax22
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    +1.5U.

    Should've been on Timmy Boetsch too. SMFH.
     
    #47
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  8. 2bet Yellow Belt

    2bet
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    Assuming that Mayweather will beat Conor, I made +1,51u on UFC Fight Night 112.
    Somehow this feels like a loss to me.

    my regrets:
    - my unit size management was so fucking random this time, I really have to improve on that. I should have won way more units on this card.

    - in some way or another I was putting money on every single fight, except Horcher/Powell.
    Putting money on Stansbury wasn't smart, I should have just stayed with the ITD prop.
    Putting money on Vettori was also dumb, at least at the odds that I got. There was zero value on him.

    - I had 2,5u on the U2.5 in the Boetsch/Hendricks fight and was super confident, and for whatever reason I cash out, and do 1,25u on the under + Means/Garcia ITD instead. The under odds were GODDAMN 2.4, there was no need at all to do a parlay with this :(

    what I did good:
    While I barely won any units I won most of my bets, my leans are seldom wrong.
    I don't regret betting BJ on those odds, Means/Garcia ITD wasn't a bad bet (I just shouldn't have parlayed this with Boetsch/Hendricks ITD), tacking a stab at Case was justified, and trusting Hendricks until the bitter end... no regrets on that.
    I should have just kept Stansbury and Vettori out of my bets (I know that Vettori won, but still).
    All the others hit.

    how do I plan to improve:
    - for the next event I will put zero money on at least 3 fights (the ones where I am the least confident at in regards to capping)
    - I will thouroughly overthink my unit size management.
     
    #48
  9. Sadistics Blue Belt

    Sadistics
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    I know you're always looking for value in underdogs but don't forget there can be value in favourites as well. For example after watching Esparza/Moroz tape I capped her -300ish and saw value in her line around -200. You were running hot for a while earlier this year and this may just be a cold streak, but something to think about.
     
    #49
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  10. Shoulder #29 most average paid MMA bettor on Sherdog.

    Shoulder
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    Ive had a gruesome cold streak due to this, just looking for dogs to bark instead of also looking at the favorites.
     
    #50
  11. Sadistics Blue Belt

    Sadistics
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    I used to be the same way, I still like a couple dogs per card but am focusing more on finding very strong leans and playing them hard. I only started tracking through bettin.gs June 11th when they introduced American odds and am up 37 units since with this strategy
     
    #51
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  12. Yotsuya Orange Belt

    Yotsuya
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    Somehow it's very hard for me to bet on favourites. When odds are below 2 there just seems to be much less room for error and feels like one has more to lose than to gain. I figured a way to practice favourites betting: I've been making a bunch of tiny parlays with the first leg at favourite odds and the second leg is Nunes, who I really want to bet, but don't feel comfortable at 1.8. So far 5/6 parlays are still alive and I have 0.7u on Nunes at 2.7, so I'm doing well with them and gaining confidence, that there might be profit for me on favourite odds.
     
    #52
    Last edited: Jun 26, 2017
  13. Sadistics Blue Belt

    Sadistics
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    I get the thought process there, but if you cap someone -500 and he's -220, is that not amazing value?
     
    #53
  14. Yotsuya Orange Belt

    Yotsuya
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    Yes, absolutely, and that's exactly what I'm trying to practice. I just need that kind of carrot at the moment to get rid of some bad instincts.
     
    #54
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  15. NinjaCat456 Blue Belt

    NinjaCat456
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    [​IMG]

    That's a typo surely..? You didn't put 8 units on BJ??
     
    #55
  16. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
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    See above

    I wouldn't have gone as big as I did on a couple of the late fights if i didn't do it, so it didn't affect the bottom line so to speak... but still just broke like a 6-7 year streak of rational betting shit.
     
    #56
  17. quincy k Purple Belt

    quincy k
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    its my theory that the casuals bet up favorites straight and in parlays skewing the value to the dogs.

    i rarely bet over -200, if ever
     
    #57
  18. weedreference Green Belt

    weedreference
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    I've reached the same conclusion as Sadistics recently. After betting dogs 66% of the time last year, I now believe there is more value on favorites overall (though I still bet more dogs for the sake of action). Granted, this does not include hyped favorites. You always want your favorite to be underrated by the market. A perfect instance of this was Prazeres at -250 against Burkman.
     
    #58
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  19. quincy k Purple Belt

    quincy k
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    i generally only bet dogs on unit plays when live betting is being offered and i think that the favorite will be offered at even money sometime during the fight for a middle or free roll. i will bet a dog with no live betting offered if the fighter has ko power

    +600 adrian broner is a good example of this as mikey garcia can sometimes start slow and has been kd and hurt early in fights.
     
    #59
  20. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
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    Value is perceived chance of success vs price offered.

    Favorite or dog makes no difference
     
    #60
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