My first winning UFC event after six or seven losing ones in a row. Lee 2U@1.87 Christensen 0.5U Tim Means R3 0.2U Lb -0.2U so about a unit up.
Didn't post my bet in here but i was pretty open about being on Means + Vettori in the chat. Not betting Vettori again that gas tank is a serious liability. I think Means felt Garcia's power in r1 so it made him hesitant. And damn Means' tdd was outstanding i thought he'd get taken down but he stuffed every td. Would have taken Reyes over Means if he was -200 certainly would have made me sweat less! Won over £800 on lb thanks to Guida +260 early r2 so should have gone bigger! The Barbarian @ -110 during r1 and +113 early r2 was free money much like Guida! Shame i threw some away betting on BJ after r2 lol! All good tho another massive night. Edit: How could i forget i got Herrig +225 end of r1!
1.75u Boetsch - 3.45 + 4.5u Hendricks - 1.62 2.25u Koch - 1.45 2u Means - 1.50 1.5u Penn - 2.60 1u Lee - 1.87 1u Kimball - 2.60 0.5u Hendricks/Boetsch o2.5 - 1.62 0.5u Means ITD - 1.83 0.5u Means ITD + Horcher - 2.30 0.5u Esparza DEC + Lee/Chiesa ends ITD - 2.59 0.25u Penn DEC - 5.00 0.25u Koch ITD - 2.37 0.25u Penn DEC + Hendricks/Boetsch o2.5 + Koch ITD - 22.62 0.25u Lee ITD - 2.70 0.25u Christensen - 3.83 0.1u Means R3 - 12.00 Total: -2,16u Putting money on BJ Penn in 2017, buying out of your Boetsch bet, going way to big on Koch despite a shitty line
.10u to win $284 Sonnen wins by 3 round decision +331 Bader / Davis goes 5 round distance -165 Means wins in round 2 +325 - Pending and .10u to win $561 Sonnen wins by 3 round decision +331 Bader / Davis goes 5 round distance -165 Means wins in round 3 +725 - Pending $15.00 to win $42.70 Pending 4 Team Parlay Pending 6/25/17 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1402 Tim Means -250* vs Alex Garcia Pending 6/25/17 8:30pm UFC Fighting 1602 Erik Koch -340* vs Clay Guida Pending 6/25/17 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1702 Marvin Vettori -365* vs Vitor Miranda Win 6/24/17 9:30pm MMA Props Fighting 3403 Bader / Davis goes 5 round distance -150* $40.00 to win $47.17 Pending 2 Team Parlay Pending 6/25/17 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1802 Carla Esparza -210* vs Maryna Moroz Pending 6/25/17 5:30pm UFC Fighting 9999 Marvin Vettori -210* vs Vitor Miranda $40.00 to win $40.52 Pending 2 Team Parlay Pending 6/25/17 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1302 Dominick Reyes -275* vs Joachim Christensen Pending 6/25/17 5:30pm UFC Fighting 9999 Marvin Vettori -210* vs Vitor Miranda $35.00 to win $69.00 Pending 3 Team Parlay Pending 6/25/17 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1302 Dominick Reyes -275* vs Joachim Christensen Pending 6/25/17 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1802 Carla Esparza -210* vs Maryna Moroz Pending 6/25/17 5:30pm UFC Fighting 9999 Marvin Vettori -210* vs Vitor Miranda 20.00 to win $35.45 Pending 3 Team Parlay Pending 6/25/17 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1302 Dominick Reyes -275* vs Joachim Christensen Pending 6/25/17 8:30pm UFC Fighting 1602 Erik Koch -265* vs Clay Guida Pending 6/25/17 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1802 Carla Esparza -210* vs Maryna Moroz $15.00 to win $46.25 Pending 4 Team Parlay Pending 6/25/17 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1302 Dominick Reyes -275* vs Joachim Christensen Pending 6/25/17 8:30pm UFC Fighting 1602 Erik Koch -215* vs Clay Guida Pending 6/25/17 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1802 Carla Esparza -210* vs Maryna Moroz Pending 6/25/17 7:30pm UFC Fighting 1902 Darrell Horcher -260* vs Devin Powell $25.00 to win $44.66 Pending 3 Team Parlay Pending 6/25/17 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1201 Justine Kish/Felice Herrig Over 2½ -270* Pending 6/25/17 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1801 Maryna Moroz/Carla Esparza Over 2½ -265* Pending 6/25/17 5:30pm UFC Fighting 9999 Marvin Vettori -210* vs Vitor Miranda $9.62 to win $26.70 Pending 3 Team Parlay Pending 6/25/17 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1201 Justine Kish/Felice Herrig Over 2½ -270* Pending 6/25/17 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1801 Maryna Moroz/Carla Esparza Over 2½ -265* Pending 6/25/17 7:00pm UFC Fighting 2001 Michel Quinones +100* vs Jared Gordon $13.75 to win $29.96 Pending 3 Team Parlay Pending 6/25/17 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1201 Justine Kish/Felice Herrig Over 2½ -270* Pending 6/25/17 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1801 Maryna Moroz/Carla Esparza Over 2½ -210* Pending 6/25/17 7:00pm UFC Fighting 2001 Michel Quinones/Jared Gordon Over 2½ -175* $10.00 to win $45.62 Pending 5 Team Parlay Pending 6/25/17 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1201 Justine Kish/Felice Herrig Over 2½ -280* Pending 6/25/17 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1302 Dominick Reyes -290* vs Joachim Christensen Pending 6/25/17 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1801 Maryna Moroz/Carla Esparza Over 2½ -245* Pending 6/25/17 7:30pm UFC Fighting 1902 Darrell Horcher -335* vs Devin Powell Win 6/24/17 9:30pm Bellator Fighting 3401 Ryan Bader/Phil Davis Over 4½ -150* $10.00 to win $19.32 Pending 4 Team Parlay Pending 6/25/17 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1302 Dominick Reyes -370* vs Joachim Christensen Pending 6/25/17 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1402 Tim Means -250* vs Alex Garcia Pending 6/25/17 8:30pm UFC Fighting 1602 Erik Koch -340* vs Clay Guida Pending 6/25/17 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1702 Marvin Vettori -365* vs Vitor Miranda $30.00 to win $37.36 Pending 4 Team Parlay Pending 6/25/17 9:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1537 Penn / Siver starts round 2 -332* vs Fight won’t start round 2 Pending 6/25/17 8:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1637 Guida / Koch starts round 2 -412* vs Fight won’t start round 2 Pending 6/25/17 7:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1837 Moroz / Esparza starts round 2 -680* vs Fight won’t start round 2 Pending 6/25/17 6:30pm MMA Props Fighting 2037 Quinones / Gordon starts round 2 -475* vs Fight won’t start round 2 $15.00 to win $40.16 Pending 6 Team Parlay Pending 6/25/17 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1302 Dominick Reyes -360* vs Joachim Christensen Pending 6/25/17 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1702 Marvin Vettori -355* vs Vitor Miranda Pending 6/25/17 9:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1537 Penn / Siver starts round 2 -332* vs Fight won’t start round 2 Pending 6/25/17 8:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1637 Guida / Koch starts round 2 -412* vs Fight won’t start round 2 Pending 6/25/17 7:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1837 Moroz / Esparza starts round 2 -680* vs Fight won’t start round 2 Pending 6/25/17 6:30pm MMA Props Fighting 2037 Quinones / Gordon starts round 2 -475* vs Fight won’t start round 2 $12.15 to win $86.19 Pending 8 Team Parlay Pending 6/25/17 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1302 Dominick Reyes -335* vs Joachim Christensen Win 6/24/17 9:30pm MMA Props Fighting 3403 Bader / Davis goes 5 round distance -165* vs Fight won’t go 5 round distance Pending 6/25/17 10:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1237 Kish / Herrig starts round 2 -790* vs Fight won’t start round 2 Pending 6/25/17 9:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1409 Means wins inside distance -150* vs Not Means inside distance Pending 6/25/17 9:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1537 Penn / Siver starts round 2 -370* vs Fight won’t start round 2 Pending 6/25/17 7:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1837 Moroz / Esparza starts round 2 -725* vs Fight won’t start round 2 Pending 6/25/17 6:30pm MMA Props Fighting 2037 Quinones / Gordon starts round 2 -491* vs Fight won’t start round 2 Pending 6/25/17 6:00pm MMA Props Fighting 2137 Martin / Case starts round 2 -532* vs Fight won’t start round 2 $10.00 to win $105.79 Pending 5 Team Parlay Pending 6/25/17 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1302 Dominick Reyes -360* vs Joachim Christensen Pending 6/25/17 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1501 BJ Penn +145* vs Dennis Siver Pending 6/25/17 8:30pm UFC Fighting 1602 Erik Koch -340* vs Clay Guida Pending 6/25/17 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1702 Marvin Vettori -370* vs Vitor Miranda Pending 6/25/17 6:30pm UFC Fighting 2001 Michel Quinones +125* vs Jared Gordon $10.00 to win $433.17 Pending 10 Team Parlay Pending 6/25/17 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1001 Mike Chiesa +110* vs Kevin Lee Pending 6/25/17 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1302 Dominick Reyes -360* vs Joachim Christensen Pending 6/25/17 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1501 BJ Penn +145* vs Dennis Siver Pending 6/25/17 8:30pm UFC Fighting 1602 Erik Koch -340* vs Clay Guida Pending 6/25/17 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1702 Marvin Vettori -370* vs Vitor Miranda Pending 6/25/17 6:30pm UFC Fighting 2001 Michel Quinones +125* vs Jared Gordon Pending 6/25/17 11:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1137 Boetsch / Hendricks starts round 2 -480* vs Fight won’t start round 2 Pending 6/25/17 10:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1237 Kish / Herrig starts round 2 -695* vs Fight won’t start round 2 Pending 6/25/17 7:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1837 Moroz / Esparza starts round 2 -776* vs Fight won’t start round 2 Pending 6/25/17 6:00pm MMA Props Fighting 2137 Martin / Case starts round 2 -595* vs Fight won’t start round 2 Straight bets $15.00 $19.50 Pending 6/25/17 6:30pm UFC Fighting 2001 Michel Quinones +130* vs Jared Gordon $31.25 $25.00 Pending 6/25/17 7:00pm UFC Fighting 2001 Michel Quinones -125* vs Jared Gordon $10.00 $33.00 Pending 6/25/17 6:30pm MMA Props Fighting 2007 Quinones wins by 3 round decision +330* vs Not Quinones by 3 round decision $15.00 $47.10 Pending 6/25/17 6:30pm MMA Props Fighting 2007 Quinones wins by 3 round decision +314* vs Not Quinones by 3 round decision $25.00 $43.75 Pending 6/25/17 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1501 BJ Penn +175* vs Dennis Siver $15.97 $26.35 Pending 6/25/17 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1501 BJ Penn +165* vs Dennis Siver $20.00 $95.00 Pending 6/25/17 9:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1423 Means wins in round 2 +475* vs Any other result $15.00 $127.50 Pending 6/25/17 9:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1425 Means wins in round 3 +850* vs Any other result I got a lot riding on Means in round 2/3. I had a good night last night with Bellator and with some other bets some went a little happy with the parlays again, good luck all. Live bets - $15.00 to win $24.00 Win 6/25/17 8:30pm Live In-Play Fighting 1601 Clay Guida +160* $20.00 to win $220.00 $0.00 Loss 6/25/17 8:00pm Live In-Play Fighting 1701 Vitor Miranda +1100* $10.00 to win $25.00 $0.00 Loss 6/25/17 5:30pm MMA Props Fighting 2207 Stansbury wins by 3 round decision +250 Total = Plus 35.75
Assuming that Mayweather will beat Conor, I made +1,51u on UFC Fight Night 112. Somehow this feels like a loss to me. my regrets: - my unit size management was so fucking random this time, I really have to improve on that. I should have won way more units on this card. - in some way or another I was putting money on every single fight, except Horcher/Powell. Putting money on Stansbury wasn't smart, I should have just stayed with the ITD prop. Putting money on Vettori was also dumb, at least at the odds that I got. There was zero value on him. - I had 2,5u on the U2.5 in the Boetsch/Hendricks fight and was super confident, and for whatever reason I cash out, and do 1,25u on the under + Means/Garcia ITD instead. The under odds were GODDAMN 2.4, there was no need at all to do a parlay with this what I did good: While I barely won any units I won most of my bets, my leans are seldom wrong. I don't regret betting BJ on those odds, Means/Garcia ITD wasn't a bad bet (I just shouldn't have parlayed this with Boetsch/Hendricks ITD), tacking a stab at Case was justified, and trusting Hendricks until the bitter end... no regrets on that. I should have just kept Stansbury and Vettori out of my bets (I know that Vettori won, but still). All the others hit. how do I plan to improve: - for the next event I will put zero money on at least 3 fights (the ones where I am the least confident at in regards to capping) - I will thouroughly overthink my unit size management.
I know you're always looking for value in underdogs but don't forget there can be value in favourites as well. For example after watching Esparza/Moroz tape I capped her -300ish and saw value in her line around -200. You were running hot for a while earlier this year and this may just be a cold streak, but something to think about.
Ive had a gruesome cold streak due to this, just looking for dogs to bark instead of also looking at the favorites.
I used to be the same way, I still like a couple dogs per card but am focusing more on finding very strong leans and playing them hard. I only started tracking through bettin.gs June 11th when they introduced American odds and am up 37 units since with this strategy
Somehow it's very hard for me to bet on favourites. When odds are below 2 there just seems to be much less room for error and feels like one has more to lose than to gain. I figured a way to practice favourites betting: I've been making a bunch of tiny parlays with the first leg at favourite odds and the second leg is Nunes, who I really want to bet, but don't feel comfortable at 1.8. So far 5/6 parlays are still alive and I have 0.7u on Nunes at 2.7, so I'm doing well with them and gaining confidence, that there might be profit for me on favourite odds.
I get the thought process there, but if you cap someone -500 and he's -220, is that not amazing value?
Yes, absolutely, and that's exactly what I'm trying to practice. I just need that kind of carrot at the moment to get rid of some bad instincts.
See above I wouldn't have gone as big as I did on a couple of the late fights if i didn't do it, so it didn't affect the bottom line so to speak... but still just broke like a 6-7 year streak of rational betting shit.
its my theory that the casuals bet up favorites straight and in parlays skewing the value to the dogs. i rarely bet over -200, if ever
I've reached the same conclusion as Sadistics recently. After betting dogs 66% of the time last year, I now believe there is more value on favorites overall (though I still bet more dogs for the sake of action). Granted, this does not include hyped favorites. You always want your favorite to be underrated by the market. A perfect instance of this was Prazeres at -250 against Burkman.
i generally only bet dogs on unit plays when live betting is being offered and i think that the favorite will be offered at even money sometime during the fight for a middle or free roll. i will bet a dog with no live betting offered if the fighter has ko power +600 adrian broner is a good example of this as mikey garcia can sometimes start slow and has been kd and hurt early in fights.
