Your Official UFC 215 Bets

UFC 215 Risk $3103.30

Valentina Shevchenko (-116) vs Amanda Nunes $232.00 for $200.00
Valentina Shevchenko wins by TKO/KO (+709) $50.00 for $354.50
Amanda Nunes wins in round 1 (+500) $20.00 for $100.00
Amanda Nunes wins in round 2 (+750) $25.00 for $187.50
Valentina Shevchenko wins in round 3 (+925) $25.00 for $231.25
Valentina Shevchenko wins in round 3 (+1700) ~$26.10 for ~$443.70
Valentina Shevchenko wins in round 4 +(1225) $15.00 for $183.75
Valentina Shevchenko wins in round 4 (+2400) ~$26.10 for ~$626.40
Valentina Shevchenko wins in round 5 (+1700) $15.00 for $255.00
Valentina Shevchenko wins in round 5 (+3200) ~$26.10 for ~$835.20
Valentina Shevchenko/Amanda Nunes draw (+7000) $20.00 for $1,400.00

Neil Magny (+175) vs Rafael dos Anjos $100.00 for $175.00

Wilson Reis (+380) vs Henry Cejudo $50.00 for $190.00

Ilir Latifi (+110) vs Tyson Pedro $200.00 for $220.00
Ilir Latifi (-135) vs Tyson Pedro $270.00 for $200.00
Ilir Latifi wins in round 3 (+1200) $10.00 for $120.00

Jeremy Stephens (-115) vs Gilbert Melendez $345.00 for $300.00
Jeremy Stephens +3½ points (-270) $270.00 for $100.00

Ketlen Vieira (+190) vs Sara McMann $200.00 for $380.00
Ketlen Vieira wins by TKO/KO (+1090) $50.00 for $545.00
Sara McMann wins by submission (+549) $25.00 for $137.25
Sara McMann wins in round 2 (+750) $20.00 for $150.00
Sara McMann wins in round 3 (+1225) $15.00 for $183.75

Ashlee Evans-Smith wins by TKO/KO (+425) vs Sarah Moras $20.00 for $85.00
Ashlee Evans-Smith wins in round 3 (+1225) $15.00 for $183.75
Ashlee Evans-Smith/Sarah Moras Under 2½ (+220) $100.00 for $220.00

Gavin Tucker/Rick Glenn Under 2½ (+190) $100.00 for $190.00

Mitch Clarke (+175) vs Alex White $100.00 for $175.00

Luis Henrique (+185) vs Arjan Bhullar $100.00 for $185.00

Adriano Martins wins by TKO/KO (+115) vs Kajan Johnson $40.00 for $46.00
Adriano Martins wins inside distance (-120) $180.00 for $150.00

Fights to end in KO/TKO over 3½ (+169) $40.00 for $67.60
Fights to end in KO/TKO over 4½ (+483) $20.00 for $96.60
Fights to end in KO/TKO over 5½ (+1447) $15.00 for $217.05
Fights to end in KO/TKO over 6½ (+5725) $5.00 for $286.25
Fights to end in KO/TKO over 7½ (+32300) $3.00 for $969.00

Adriano Martins wins Fastest KO (+500) $20.00 for $100.00
Gavin Tucker/Rick Glenn FOTN award winner (+750) $10.00 for $75.00

Parlays:
Adriano Martins (-455) vs Kajan Johnson + Henry Cejudo/Wilson Reis Over 2½ (-270) + Jeremy Stephens/Gilbert Melendez Over 2½ (-225) $200.00 for $282.89
Adriano Martins (-455) vs Kajan Johnson + Ashlee Evans-Smith/Sarah Moras Over 2½ (-257) + Demetrious Johnson/Ray Borg Under 4½ (-120) $100.00 for $210.64
 
2.22u Nunes NSC -111 (Live betting Shev)
0.33u Shevchenko TKO/KO +709
1u Magny +175
0.5u Magny DEC +275
2.2u Magny/RDA o2.5 -220
1u Wilson Reis +325
3u Latifi +100
0.5u Gil DEC +200
1u Stephens NSC +110
1u Rick Glenn +250
0.66u Mitch Clarke +190
1u Henrique +170
1.13u RDA/Magny o2.0 + Tucker/Glenn o2.0 -113

TOTAL RISK: Around 15.5u, plus some small stabs and RRs. RDA win in u2.5 would be absolutely brutal, and I'm definitely overexposed to Latifi. Shev Sub R1 would suck too, as would Gil ITD. Far more dog action for me than any other card, and I'm likely to add a play on Viera too, so hopefully they're barking!
 
Parlay
Stephens to win
RDA to win
AES to win
Shev to win
Latifi to win
McMann to win
Cejudo to win
Henrique to win
$5 to win $322.92
Lose: $5

Henrique/Latifi to win
$10 to win $50
Lose: $10

Henrique to win
$15 to win $35
Lose: $15

Latifi to win
$20 to win $38
Win: $38

RDA to win
$15 to win $22.14
Win: $22.14

Reis to win
$10 to win $37.50
Lose: $10

Stephens to win
$10 to win $18
Win: $18

Stephens/Shevchenko to win
$10 to win $34.36
Lose: $10

Nunes to win in Round 1
$2.50 to win $16.20
Lose: $2.50

Nunes to win in Round 2
$2.50 to win $20
Lose: $2.50

Shev to win in Round 3
$2.50 to win $27.50
Lose: $2.50

Shev to win in Round 4
$3.40 to win $64.60
Lose: $2.50

Shev/Nunes Draw
$2 to win $102
Lose: $2.50

Shevchenko to win
$10 to win $19.09
Lose: $2.50

Total Bet: $120

Net: $13.14
 
Antagonist88 said:
2.22u Nunes NSC -111 (Live betting Shev)
0.33u Shevchenko TKO/KO +709
1u Magny +175 -1u
0.5u Magny DEC +275 -0.5u
2.2u Magny/RDA o2.5 -220 -2.2u
1u Wilson Reis +325
3u Latifi +100 +3u
0.5u Gil DEC +200 -0.5u
1u Stephens NSC +110
1u Rick Glenn +250 +2.5u
0.66u Mitch Clarke +190 -0.66u
1u Henrique +170 -1u
1.13u RDA/Magny o2.0 + Tucker/Glenn o2.0 -113 -1.13u

TOTAL RISK: Around 15.5u, plus some small stabs and RRs. RDA win in u2.5 would be absolutely brutal, and I'm definitely overexposed to Latifi. Shev Sub R1 would suck too, as would Gil ITD. Far more dog action for me than any other card, and I'm likely to add a play on Viera too, so hopefully they're barking!

ADDED LIVE:
0.5u Henrique +3.5 +100 +0.5u
0.66u Ketlen +195 +1.29u
0.33u Ketlen/McMann ends ITD LIVE after R1 +260 +0.86u
0.33u Pedro +330 -0.33u
1.33u Nunes ITD +165
0.5u Nunes +220
1.33u Shev +135
1.2u Shev -180
0.85u Shev -130
1u Nunes/Shev goes 5 +155
Click to expand...

-3u. Was a little overexposed to Magny and underexposed to Nunes DEC, and the latter was due to tilt from the former. Also let bias get in the way on Stephens/Gil. But man, real turn for the worst after I got the Latifi win. Really didn't do enough tape study this week so I was asking for it

Welp, on to the Pittsburgh card
 
Sadistics said:
Shevchenko KO +709 .3u
Shevchenko RD4 +2500 .1u
Shevchenko RD5 +3300 .1u

Cejudo -315 3u
Cejudo/Reis O2.5 -220 2u
Cejudo DEC -143 1u

RDA -180 5u

Latifi -111 1u

Stephens -115 1u

Vieira +225 1u

Tucker -140 4.2u
Tucker/Glenn O2.5 -210 2.1u
Glenn RD3 +2050 .2u

White/Clarke O2.5 -115 2u

Henrique +150 1u

Martins -182 5.5u


MM + Cejudo + AES -103 2u

Cutting it off here, way too exposed with about 30u risked
Click to expand...

Amazed I came out alive here, was down about 14u after the first 5 fights but rallied back to end up with a -1u night. Couldn't believe I was lbing Nunes in RD4 and 5

LBs:
Nunes +120 2u
Latifi -125 4u
Latifi/Pedro GTD +165 .5u
Cejudo ITD +162 .5u
 
Martins ITD $135 to get $100
shevchenko $1150 to get $1000
stephens $115 to get $100
Reis/Cejudo will go to dec $97.50 to get $50
Glenn $100 to get $175
McMann $275 to get $100
McMann and Martins $75 to get $53
McMann and Shevchenko $75 to get $112
Martins and Shevchenko $75 to get $98
Martins and Mcmann and Shevchenko $75 to get $161
Lusi Henrique $42 to get $68
Rafael Dos Anjos $185 to get $100

added more on shev not gonna add insult to injury by adding those here but my total loss was $1900. Bad, Bad night lol. Next week can not come soon enough.
 
MT6ix said:
RDA 1u @ -185
Lafiti 0.5u @ +115
Click to expand...

Didn't watch the fights but did watch some tape beforehand and kept it simple.

Won both bets, up just over 1.5 units.
 
UFC 215 Net: -169.46
DJ RD4: 6 parlays
nunes +176: 184 for 324 - 25 parlays / nunes SUB: 9 parlays / nunes RD1: 30 for 150 - 6 parlays / nunes RD2: 20 for 150 / nunes SPLIT: 10 for 100.80 / nunes +5.5: 77.50 for 50 / draw: 4 for 280 / shevchenko DEC: 50 for 167.50 - 12 parlays / shev SPLIT: 10 for 87.70 / shev RD4: 10 for 130 - 6 parlays / shev RD5: 10 for 160
magny DEC: 30 for 101.40 - 12 parlays / magny RD3: 10 for 210 / DEC: 90 for 50 / RDA ITD: 9 parlays
reis +672: 59 for 396.50 / reis SUB: 9 parlays / DEC: 92.50 for 50 / O2.5: 90 for 50
latifi -128: 341.70 for 266 - 25 parlays / latifi DEC: 16 parlays / latifi RD2: 15 for 105 / latifi RD3: 15 for 175 - 6 parlays / DEC: 12 parlays / U1.5: 54 for 50
stephens -127: 190 for 150 - 25 parlays / stephens ITD: 28 parlays / stephens RD3: 10 for 130 - 6 parlays / stephens NSC: 120 for 100 / DEC: 87.50 for 50
mcmann -190: 95 for 50 / mcmann ITD: 22 parlays / mcmann SUB: 50 for 285.50 - 15 parlays / mcmann RD3: 10 for 155
evans-smith ITD: 31 parlays / evans-smith RD2: 35 for 299.75 / evans-smith RD3: 35 for 485 - 6 parlays / evans-smith -3.5: 25 parlays
glenn +173: 250 for 431.25 / glenn DEC: 6 parlays / glenn +3.5: 25 parlays / glenn NSC: 10 parlays / ITD: 40 for 104
white +220: 20.50 for 45 / clarke SUB: 25 for 106.25 - 9 parlays / clarke NSC: 10 parlays
henrique +160: 100 for 172.50 / henrique DEC: 6 parlays / bhullar DEC: 30 for 67.50 / bhullar RD3: 31 for 259 - 6 parlays
martins -194: 387.50 for 200 / martins ITD: 25 parlays / martins SUB: 30 for 203.10 - 9 parlays / martins RD2: 12 parlays / martins RD3: 12 parlays
props
DEC O5.5: 123 for 100
DEC O6.5: 20 for 51.40
DEC O7.5: 8 for 63.92
DEC O8.5: 2 for 66
DEC O9.5: 1 for 330
Fastest SUB: nunes: 5 for 75
Fastest SUB: mcmann: 5 for 100
FOTN: glenn-tucker: 10 for 75
parlays
21 RR for 2,958.03: DJRD4/ shevRD4/ latifiRD3/ stephensRD3/ evanssmithRD3/ bhullarRD3/ martinsRD3
21 RR for 3,651.10: nunesSUB/ rdaITD/ reisSUB/ mcmannSUB/ evanssmithITD/ clarkeSUB/ martinsSUB
50 RR for (paid +30.15) 336.60: nunes/ latifi/ stephens/ evanssmith-3.5/ glenn+3.5/ martinsITD
28 RR for 2,327.31: shevDEC/ magnyDEC/ padrolatifiDEC/ stephensITD/ mcmannITD/ evanssmithITD/ martinsRD2
21 RR for (paid +16.44) 811.90: nunesRD1/ latifiDEC/ stephensITD/ mcmannSUB/ glennDEC/ henriqueDEC/ martinsRD3
30 RR for (paid -18.60) 502.41: latifiDEC/ stephensITD/ mcmannITD/ evanssmithITD/ glennNSC/ clarkeNSC
---

-left more than i felt comfortable leaving on martins, but maybe that's just me lamenting the loss to start the card off, idk
-wishing i went w/my gut on RDA & even RDA rd 1 stab when his line dropped thursday night

miscapped a few favorites. most notably the two girls early, mcmann and evans-smith. not big losses but just bad job by me, i guess. moreso mcmann.

nunes got me almost back even to close it, just wish it didn't cost some of you $ on the other side, but that's the way this goes
 
maxim814 said:
Parlay
Stephens to win
RDA to win
AES to win
Shev to win
Latifi to win
McMann to win
Cejudo to win
Henrique to win
$5 to win $322.92
Lose: $5

Henrique/Latifi to win
$10 to win $50
Lose: $10

Henrique to win
$15 to win $35
Lose: $15

Latifi to win
$20 to win $38
Win: $38

RDA to win
$15 to win $22.14
Win: $22.14

Reis to win
$10 to win $37.50
Lose: $10

Stephens to win
$10 to win $18
Win: $18

Stephens/Shevchenko to win
$10 to win $34.36
Lose: $10

Nunes to win in Round 1
$2.50 to win $16.20
Lose: $2.50

Nunes to win in Round 2
$2.50 to win $20
Lose: $2.50

Shev to win in Round 3
$2.50 to win $27.50
Lose: $2.50

Shev to win in Round 4
$3.40 to win $64.60
Lose: $2.50

Shev/Nunes Draw
$2 to win $102
Lose: $2.50

Shevchenko to win
$10 to win $19.09
Lose: $2.50

Total Bet: $120

Net: $13.14
Click to expand...

Without sounding troll like, isn't your net like -$32?
 
2.5u RDA - 1.53
2u Latifi - 1.90
1.5u Tucker - 1.40
1u Magny/RDA o2.5 + Martins - 1.81
0.75u Cejudo/Reis o2.5 + Tucker/Glenn o2.5 - 1.97
0.05u x 3 Shevy Chase R3/R4/R5

Added:
0.1u Henrique sub - 11.00
0.25u Cejudo DEC - 1.80
0.5u Tucker DEC - 1.90

Did a last minute RR for 0.3 too which lost


Livebets:
1u Glenn - 1.28
0.5u Cejudo ITD - 3.00
0.25u Glenn DEC - 3.10
0.25u Kajan - 7.00
0.25u Latifi - 2.10
0.25u Latifi/Pedro FGTD - 2.20
0.1u Latifi DEC - 7.50
0.1u Henrique - 2.85
0.1u Vieira ITD - 7.50
0.5u Shev DEC - 2.37

Total: +3.25u

I wasn't drinking anything last night which I believe helped my livebetting a lot. Not that I normally drink a lot during these events but with the lack of sleep involved it usually takes very little to mess with my judgement. But still...I should have hit a lot of those harder. Not sure why I even livebet Shev/Nunes since I was asleep for most of the fight. I kept waking up every couple of minutes and felt super confused trying to figure out what was going on.

Still don't know what the hell happened with the Tucker/Glenn fight. The guy had a full training camp for this fight and somehow shows up looking worse than in his debut? Glenn is obviously better than Sicilia but I knew that before the fight, I still think it was weird. Genuinely hope Tucker's alright after that beatdown. Dana White seemed pretty pissed about the ref on twitter too.
 
Last edited:
2u Tucker + Cejudo @1.86

0.8u Magny @2.62
0.8u Latifi @2.10
0.7u Vieira @3.25
0.5u Clarke @2.75

0.5u Nunes sub props

Lb: 0.5u Vieira @3.20
0.3u Cejudo ITD @3.00
0.6u Shevchenko @2.35

-0.16u , Second event in a row that I end up almost even. Tucker looked terrible, and I thought that Shevchenko won, but whatever, I'll try to do better next event.
 
0.2u Shevchenko KO +694 -0.2u
0.1u Shevchenko RD3 +1150 -0.1u
0.1u Shevchenko RD4 +1300 -0.1u
0.1u Shevchenko RD5 +1550 -0.1u

3.69u RDA -143 +2.58u

1.8u Reis-Cejudo o2.5 -180 -1.8u
0.5u Reis NSC +187 -0.5u -0.5u
0.1u Reis SUB +850 -0.1u

2.25u Latifi -107 +2.1u

0.5u Henrique +185 -0.5u

0.1u Latifi/Stephens/Cejudo DEC/RDA DEC/Shevchenko +2499 -0.1u

Live bet: 2.6u Shevchenko -130 -2.6u

NET: -1.42u

I originally bet 5u on RDA when the line opened at -150, he was my strongest lean of the card. Pretty annoyed with myself for arbing some of that off. Other than that I think my plays were solid even though the results weren't great.

I thought Cejudo looked very good against Joe B. (I also thought he was robbed in that fight), but I never would have predicted him stopping Wilson like that.

I don't agree with the decision in the main event, but it certainly wasn't a robbery. I knew I should have taken Nunes +200 after the 4th, but I was rooting for Shev and not thinking clearly.
 
Strong night for me, dug myself out of a hole and my BR now sits at a record high.
 
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