Your Official UFC 215 Bets | Page 3

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Sep 2, 2017.

  1. JimGunn Red Belt

    JimGunn
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    UFC 215 Risk $3103.30

    Valentina Shevchenko (-116) vs Amanda Nunes $232.00 for $200.00
    Valentina Shevchenko wins by TKO/KO (+709) $50.00 for $354.50
    Amanda Nunes wins in round 1 (+500) $20.00 for $100.00
    Amanda Nunes wins in round 2 (+750) $25.00 for $187.50
    Valentina Shevchenko wins in round 3 (+925) $25.00 for $231.25
    Valentina Shevchenko wins in round 3 (+1700) ~$26.10 for ~$443.70
    Valentina Shevchenko wins in round 4 +(1225) $15.00 for $183.75
    Valentina Shevchenko wins in round 4 (+2400) ~$26.10 for ~$626.40
    Valentina Shevchenko wins in round 5 (+1700) $15.00 for $255.00
    Valentina Shevchenko wins in round 5 (+3200) ~$26.10 for ~$835.20
    Valentina Shevchenko/Amanda Nunes draw (+7000) $20.00 for $1,400.00

    Neil Magny (+175) vs Rafael dos Anjos $100.00 for $175.00

    Wilson Reis (+380) vs Henry Cejudo $50.00 for $190.00

    Ilir Latifi (+110) vs Tyson Pedro $200.00 for $220.00
    Ilir Latifi (-135) vs Tyson Pedro $270.00 for $200.00
    Ilir Latifi wins in round 3 (+1200) $10.00 for $120.00

    Jeremy Stephens (-115) vs Gilbert Melendez $345.00 for $300.00
    Jeremy Stephens +3½ points (-270) $270.00 for $100.00

    Ketlen Vieira (+190) vs Sara McMann $200.00 for $380.00
    Ketlen Vieira wins by TKO/KO (+1090) $50.00 for $545.00
    Sara McMann wins by submission (+549) $25.00 for $137.25
    Sara McMann wins in round 2 (+750) $20.00 for $150.00
    Sara McMann wins in round 3 (+1225) $15.00 for $183.75

    Ashlee Evans-Smith wins by TKO/KO (+425) vs Sarah Moras $20.00 for $85.00
    Ashlee Evans-Smith wins in round 3 (+1225) $15.00 for $183.75
    Ashlee Evans-Smith/Sarah Moras Under 2½ (+220) $100.00 for $220.00

    Gavin Tucker/Rick Glenn Under 2½ (+190) $100.00 for $190.00

    Mitch Clarke (+175) vs Alex White $100.00 for $175.00

    Luis Henrique (+185) vs Arjan Bhullar $100.00 for $185.00

    Adriano Martins wins by TKO/KO (+115) vs Kajan Johnson $40.00 for $46.00
    Adriano Martins wins inside distance (-120) $180.00 for $150.00

    Fights to end in KO/TKO over 3½ (+169) $40.00 for $67.60
    Fights to end in KO/TKO over 4½ (+483) $20.00 for $96.60
    Fights to end in KO/TKO over 5½ (+1447) $15.00 for $217.05
    Fights to end in KO/TKO over 6½ (+5725) $5.00 for $286.25
    Fights to end in KO/TKO over 7½ (+32300) $3.00 for $969.00

    Adriano Martins wins Fastest KO (+500) $20.00 for $100.00
    Gavin Tucker/Rick Glenn FOTN award winner (+750) $10.00 for $75.00

    Parlays:
    Adriano Martins (-455) vs Kajan Johnson + Henry Cejudo/Wilson Reis Over 2½ (-270) + Jeremy Stephens/Gilbert Melendez Over 2½ (-225) $200.00 for $282.89
    Adriano Martins (-455) vs Kajan Johnson + Ashlee Evans-Smith/Sarah Moras Over 2½ (-257) + Demetrious Johnson/Ray Borg Under 4½ (-120) $100.00 for $210.64
     
    #41
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  2. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

    MMA Goodfella
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  3. Antagonist88 Green Belt

    Antagonist88
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    2.22u Nunes NSC -111 (Live betting Shev)
    0.33u Shevchenko TKO/KO +709
    1u Magny +175
    0.5u Magny DEC +275
    2.2u Magny/RDA o2.5 -220
    1u Wilson Reis +325
    3u Latifi +100
    0.5u Gil DEC +200
    1u Stephens NSC +110
    1u Rick Glenn +250
    0.66u Mitch Clarke +190
    1u Henrique +170
    1.13u RDA/Magny o2.0 + Tucker/Glenn o2.0 -113

    TOTAL RISK: Around 15.5u, plus some small stabs and RRs. RDA win in u2.5 would be absolutely brutal, and I'm definitely overexposed to Latifi. Shev Sub R1 would suck too, as would Gil ITD. Far more dog action for me than any other card, and I'm likely to add a play on Viera too, so hopefully they're barking!
     
    #43
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  4. hugdeeznuts Purple Belt

    hugdeeznuts
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    cejudo by decision
     
    #44
  5. hugdeeznuts Purple Belt

    hugdeeznuts
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    magny/dos anjos completes 2 rounds
     
    #45
  6. hugdeeznuts Purple Belt

    hugdeeznuts
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    nunes itd
     
    #46
  7. maxim814 White Belt

    maxim814
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    Parlay
    Stephens to win
    RDA to win
    AES to win
    Shev to win
    Latifi to win
    McMann to win
    Cejudo to win
    Henrique to win
    $5 to win $322.92
    Lose: $5

    Henrique/Latifi to win
    $10 to win $50
    Lose: $10

    Henrique to win
    $15 to win $35
    Lose: $15

    Latifi to win
    $20 to win $38
    Win: $38

    RDA to win
    $15 to win $22.14
    Win: $22.14

    Reis to win
    $10 to win $37.50
    Lose: $10

    Stephens to win
    $10 to win $18
    Win: $18

    Stephens/Shevchenko to win
    $10 to win $34.36
    Lose: $10

    Nunes to win in Round 1
    $2.50 to win $16.20
    Lose: $2.50

    Nunes to win in Round 2
    $2.50 to win $20
    Lose: $2.50

    Shev to win in Round 3
    $2.50 to win $27.50
    Lose: $2.50

    Shev to win in Round 4
    $3.40 to win $64.60
    Lose: $2.50

    Shev/Nunes Draw
    $2 to win $102
    Lose: $2.50

    Shevchenko to win
    $10 to win $19.09
    Lose: $2.50

    Total Bet: $120

    Net: $13.14
     
    #47
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  8. Antagonist88 Green Belt

    Antagonist88
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    -3u. Was a little overexposed to Magny and underexposed to Nunes DEC, and the latter was due to tilt from the former. Also let bias get in the way on Stephens/Gil. But man, real turn for the worst after I got the Latifi win. Really didn't do enough tape study this week so I was asking for it

    Welp, on to the Pittsburgh card
     
    #48
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  9. Sadistics Blue Belt

    Sadistics
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    Amazed I came out alive here, was down about 14u after the first 5 fights but rallied back to end up with a -1u night. Couldn't believe I was lbing Nunes in RD4 and 5

    LBs:
    Nunes +120 2u
    Latifi -125 4u
    Latifi/Pedro GTD +165 .5u
    Cejudo ITD +162 .5u
     
    #49
  10. AxeMurderer Orange Belt

    AxeMurderer
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    Martins ITD $135 to get $100
    shevchenko $1150 to get $1000
    stephens $115 to get $100
    Reis/Cejudo will go to dec $97.50 to get $50
    Glenn $100 to get $175
    McMann $275 to get $100
    McMann and Martins $75 to get $53
    McMann and Shevchenko $75 to get $112
    Martins and Shevchenko $75 to get $98
    Martins and Mcmann and Shevchenko $75 to get $161
    Lusi Henrique $42 to get $68
    Rafael Dos Anjos $185 to get $100

    added more on shev not gonna add insult to injury by adding those here but my total loss was $1900. Bad, Bad night lol. Next week can not come soon enough.
     
    #50
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  11. lifeisgood12345 Orange Belt

    lifeisgood12345
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    #51
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  12. MT6ix Yellow Belt

    MT6ix
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    Didn't watch the fights but did watch some tape beforehand and kept it simple.

    Won both bets, up just over 1.5 units.
     
    #52
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  13. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
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    UFC 215 Net: -169.46
    DJ RD4: 6 parlays
    nunes +176: 184 for 324 - 25 parlays / nunes SUB: 9 parlays / nunes RD1: 30 for 150 - 6 parlays / nunes RD2: 20 for 150 / nunes SPLIT: 10 for 100.80 / nunes +5.5: 77.50 for 50 / draw: 4 for 280 / shevchenko DEC: 50 for 167.50 - 12 parlays / shev SPLIT: 10 for 87.70 / shev RD4: 10 for 130 - 6 parlays / shev RD5: 10 for 160
    magny DEC: 30 for 101.40 - 12 parlays / magny RD3: 10 for 210 / DEC: 90 for 50
    / RDA ITD: 9 parlays
    reis +672: 59 for 396.50 / reis SUB: 9 parlays / DEC: 92.50 for 50 / O2.5: 90 for 50
    latifi -128: 341.70 for 266 - 25 parlays / latifi DEC: 16 parlays / latifi RD2: 15 for 105 / latifi RD3: 15 for 175 - 6 parlays / DEC: 12 parlays / U1.5: 54 for 50
    stephens -127: 190 for 150 - 25 parlays / stephens ITD: 28 parlays / stephens RD3: 10 for 130 - 6 parlays / stephens NSC: 120 for 100 / DEC: 87.50 for 50
    mcmann -190: 95 for 50 / mcmann ITD: 22 parlays / mcmann SUB: 50 for 285.50 - 15 parlays / mcmann RD3: 10 for 155
    evans-smith ITD: 31 parlays / evans-smith RD2: 35 for 299.75 / evans-smith RD3: 35 for 485 - 6 parlays / evans-smith -3.5: 25 parlays

    glenn +173: 250 for 431.25 / glenn DEC: 6 parlays / glenn +3.5: 25 parlays / glenn NSC: 10 parlays / ITD: 40 for 104
    white +220: 20.50 for 45 / clarke SUB: 25 for 106.25 - 9 parlays / clarke NSC: 10 parlays
    henrique +160: 100 for 172.50 / henrique DEC: 6 parlays
    / bhullar DEC: 30 for 67.50 / bhullar RD3: 31 for 259 - 6 parlays
    martins -194: 387.50 for 200 / martins ITD: 25 parlays / martins SUB: 30 for 203.10 - 9 parlays / martins RD2: 12 parlays / martins RD3: 12 parlays

    props
    DEC O5.5: 123 for 100
    DEC O6.5: 20 for 51.40
    DEC O7.5: 8 for 63.92
    DEC O8.5: 2 for 66
    DEC O9.5: 1 for 330
    Fastest SUB: nunes: 5 for 75
    Fastest SUB: mcmann: 5 for 100
    FOTN: glenn-tucker: 10 for 75

    parlays
    21 RR for 2,958.03: DJRD4/ shevRD4/ latifiRD3/ stephensRD3/ evanssmithRD3/ bhullarRD3/ martinsRD3
    21 RR for 3,651.10: nunesSUB/ rdaITD/ reisSUB/ mcmannSUB/ evanssmithITD/ clarkeSUB/ martinsSUB

    50 RR for (paid +30.15) 336.60: nunes/ latifi/ stephens/ evanssmith-3.5/ glenn+3.5/ martinsITD
    28 RR for 2,327.31: shevDEC/ magnyDEC/ padrolatifiDEC/ stephensITD/ mcmannITD/ evanssmithITD/ martinsRD2
    21 RR for (paid +16.44) 811.90: nunesRD1/ latifiDEC/ stephensITD/ mcmannSUB/ glennDEC/ henriqueDEC/ martinsRD3
    30 RR for (paid -18.60) 502.41: latifiDEC/ stephensITD/ mcmannITD/ evanssmithITD/ glennNSC/ clarkeNSC
    ---

    -left more than i felt comfortable leaving on martins, but maybe that's just me lamenting the loss to start the card off, idk
    -wishing i went w/my gut on RDA & even RDA rd 1 stab when his line dropped thursday night

    miscapped a few favorites. most notably the two girls early, mcmann and evans-smith. not big losses but just bad job by me, i guess. moreso mcmann.

    nunes got me almost back even to close it, just wish it didn't cost some of you $ on the other side, but that's the way this goes
     
    #53
  14. stretcharmstrong Blue Belt

    stretcharmstrong
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    Without sounding troll like, isn't your net like -$32?
     
    #54
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  15. NorthernLights Orange Belt

    NorthernLights
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    2.5u RDA - 1.53
    2u Latifi - 1.90

    1.5u Tucker - 1.40
    1u Magny/RDA o2.5 + Martins - 1.81
    0.75u Cejudo/Reis o2.5 + Tucker/Glenn o2.5 - 1.97
    0.05u x 3 Shevy Chase R3/R4/R5


    Added:
    0.1u Henrique sub - 11.00
    0.25u Cejudo DEC - 1.80
    0.5u Tucker DEC - 1.90


    Did a last minute RR for 0.3 too which lost


    Livebets:
    1u Glenn - 1.28
    0.5u Cejudo ITD - 3.00
    0.25u Glenn DEC - 3.10
    0.25u Kajan - 7.00
    0.25u Latifi - 2.10
    0.25u Latifi/Pedro FGTD - 2.20
    0.1u Latifi DEC - 7.50

    0.1u Henrique - 2.85
    0.1u Vieira ITD - 7.50
    0.5u Shev DEC - 2.37

    Total: +3.25u

    I wasn't drinking anything last night which I believe helped my livebetting a lot. Not that I normally drink a lot during these events but with the lack of sleep involved it usually takes very little to mess with my judgement. But still...I should have hit a lot of those harder. Not sure why I even livebet Shev/Nunes since I was asleep for most of the fight. I kept waking up every couple of minutes and felt super confused trying to figure out what was going on.

    Still don't know what the hell happened with the Tucker/Glenn fight. The guy had a full training camp for this fight and somehow shows up looking worse than in his debut? Glenn is obviously better than Sicilia but I knew that before the fight, I still think it was weird. Genuinely hope Tucker's alright after that beatdown. Dana White seemed pretty pissed about the ref on twitter too.
     
    #55
    Last edited: Sep 10, 2017
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  16. Jamah Green Belt

    Jamah
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    2u Tucker + Cejudo @1.86

    0.8u Magny @2.62
    0.8u Latifi @2.10
    0.7u Vieira @3.25

    0.5u Clarke @2.75

    0.5u Nunes sub props

    Lb: 0.5u Vieira @3.20
    0.3u Cejudo ITD @3.00

    0.6u Shevchenko @2.35

    -0.16u , Second event in a row that I end up almost even. Tucker looked terrible, and I thought that Shevchenko won, but whatever, I'll try to do better next event.
     
    #56
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  17. ChoKuRei Blue Belt

    ChoKuRei
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    +$470 minus about a dozen parlays that didnt land so profit of +$400 tonight. Ill take it
     
    #57
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  18. t6p Purple Belt

    t6p
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    0.2u Shevchenko KO +694 -0.2u
    0.1u Shevchenko RD3 +1150 -0.1u
    0.1u Shevchenko RD4 +1300 -0.1u
    0.1u Shevchenko RD5 +1550 -0.1u

    3.69u RDA -143 +2.58u

    1.8u Reis-Cejudo o2.5 -180 -1.8u
    0.5u Reis NSC +187 -0.5u -0.5u
    0.1u Reis SUB +850 -0.1u

    2.25u Latifi -107 +2.1u

    0.5u Henrique +185 -0.5u

    0.1u Latifi/Stephens/Cejudo DEC/RDA DEC/Shevchenko +2499 -0.1u

    Live bet: 2.6u Shevchenko -130 -2.6u

    NET: -1.42u

    I originally bet 5u on RDA when the line opened at -150, he was my strongest lean of the card. Pretty annoyed with myself for arbing some of that off. Other than that I think my plays were solid even though the results weren't great.

    I thought Cejudo looked very good against Joe B. (I also thought he was robbed in that fight), but I never would have predicted him stopping Wilson like that.

    I don't agree with the decision in the main event, but it certainly wasn't a robbery. I knew I should have taken Nunes +200 after the 4th, but I was rooting for Shev and not thinking clearly.
     
    #58
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  19. Thunderflash500 Double Yellow Card

    Thunderflash500
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    Lost $100 on the RDA fight, my only bet of the night.
     
    #59
  20. waiguoren Black Belt

    waiguoren
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    Strong night for me, dug myself out of a hole and my BR now sits at a record high.
     
    #60

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