Your Official UFC 206 Bets

$40/$102
Mighty mouse points prop -5.5 win
packers win
cerrone -260
halloway -175

$31/$100
cerrone -270
pettis/halloway over 2.5 -225
(ufc 207) garbrandt/cruz over 2.5 -235
(ufc 207) cain -200

leans
cerrone -3.5 no line yet
ngannou inside distance -367
Andrew sanchez by dec
corey Anderson -410
derrick lewis -190
bad news dude that Packers pick is gonna bust the first parlay...Seahawks all day!
 
Semi-for fun I got 0.2u on every combination of Mein/Cirkunov/Cerrone and 0.15u on every combination of Holloway, Gastelum and Dober.

Mostly tailing, although I'm always a fan of Holloway and Dober.
 
I'm not listing all my plays here because...well I'm too lazy. I'll be posting during the PBP thread with a lot of them as they go. I do have a lot (a LOT) on Cowboy. About 7u total between ML, itd, -3.5. Pretty big on Mein and Mein KO too, like 3u total. Also really big on o2.5 for Ortiz/Fun Size at -265 which was an amazing line. Over 3u on that. Bets on Gastelum, Cub, Holloway, all 1u or less...so far.
 
2.66u Holloway ML -160
5u Holloway -5.5 +115

5u Ortiz/Makovsky GTD + Cerrone -3.5. +105
3u Ortiz/Makovsky GTD + Lewis ML. -106

2u Choi KO +134
.5u Swanson DEC +445

1u Vannata -3.5 +100

.5u Dober ML +158

.33u Saggo NSC +185

Too much on Ortiz/Makovsky GTD but I think it's worth the risk.
 
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1u Saggo (2.62)
3u Cirkunov (1.90)
2u Mein (1.62) (Closed after R1 for +0.33u)
1u Gastelum (2.25)
7u Holloway KO-DEC (1.90)
4u Holloway (1.67)
2u Holloway / Romero (2.33)

0.5u Makovski DEC (2.10)
0.33u Saggo DEC (4.33)
0.18u Dober DEC (4.50)
0.5u Mein-Meek u1.5 (2.00)
0.33u Gastelum DEC (3.20)
0.5u Ho Choi-Swanson u1.5 (2.37)
0.15u Swanson SUB (15.00)

parlays:

1u Khab-Saggo o2.5 / Cerrone (2.09)
1u Khab-Saggo o2.5 / Dober-OAM o2.5 (2.35)
1u Lewis KO-DEC / holloway KO-DEC (3.18)
1u Lewis / Cerrone (2.20)
0.5u Lewis / Brown / Holloway KO-DEC (4.50)
0.5u Mak-Ortiz o2.5 / Khab-Saggo o2.5 / Holloway KO-DEC / Lewis KO-DEC (6.27)
0.5u Khab-Saggo o2.5 / Dober-OAM o2.5 / Mein / Cerrone / Holloway KO-DEC (9.95)
0.25u HollowayKO-DEC / Cirkunov / Mein / Saggo / Dober-OAM o2.5 (23.97)
 
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1.09u Gastelum +280 (net odds after hedging +175 opener)
2.13u Choi ML +122 (net odds after hedging -110 opener)
2u Holloway ML -154
1.66u Mein -118
1.33u Krylov/Cirkunov O1.5 +100
1.33u Cerrone/Brown U2.5 +103
1.33u Vannata ML -118
1u Dober ML +220

1u Holloway KO or DEC -110
0.33u Krylov DEC +650

2.66u Lewis + Cerrone +120
2u Khabilov/Saggo O2.5 + Makovsky/Ortiz O2.5 -103
2u Benavidez/Cejudo O2.5 + Holloway/Pettis O2.5 +115
1u Jedrzejczyk KO or DEC + Holloway/Pettis O2.5 +121
1u Kennedy/Gastelum O2.5 + Makovsky/Ortiz O2.5 -107
 
Makovsky by decision
Rustam/Holloway parlay
Vannata
Valerie by decision
Gagnon
OAM by decision
Misha
Mein
Gastelum
Brown
Doo Hoi Choi/Holloway parlay
 
2.66u Holloway ML -160
5u Holloway -5.5 +115

5u Ortiz/Makovsky GTD + Cerrone -3.5. +105
3u Ortiz/Makovsky GTD + Lewis ML. -106

2u Choi KO +134
.5u Swanson DEC +445

1u Vannata -3.5 +100

.5u Dober ML +158

.33u Saggo NSC +185

Too much on Ortiz/Makovsky GTD but I think it's worth the risk.
Added:

.5u Vannata -3.5 + Lopez/Gagnon O2.5 + Pereira/Letourneau O2.5 + Dober/OAM O2.5 to win 2.9u
 
Adding

$25/$111
Ortiz makovsky over 2.5 -365
Dober/mercier over 2.5 -200
Gastelum/Kennedy over 2.5 -200
Cerrone -285
Halloway -245
 
UFC 206 Risk $3312.47

Max Holloway (-244) vs Anthony Pettis $244.00 for $100.00
Max Holloway wins by 5 round decision (+145) $50.00 for $72.50
Max Holloway wins by 5 round unanimous decision (+215) $25.00 for $53.75

Donald Cerrone (-275) vs Matt Brown $275.00 for $100.00
Donald Cerrone wins by submission (+314) $30.00 for $94.20
Donald Cerrone wins in round 2 (+500) $20.00 for $100.00
Donald Cerrone wins by submission in round 2 (+800) ~$11.64 for ~$93.12

Cub Swanson (+185) vs Doo Ho Choi $200.00 for $370.00
Cub Swanson wins by submission (+1155) $30.00 for $346.50
Not Doo Ho Choi inside distance (-120) $90.00 for $75.00
Cub Swanson/Doo Ho Choi Will End In For The First 60 Seconds Of 1st Round (+1000) ~$11.64 for ~$116.40

Tim Kennedy (-130) vs Kelvin Gastelum $260.00 for $200.00

Jordan Mein (-156) vs Emil Meek $156.00 for $100.00
Jordan Mein wins by TKO/KO (+190) $30.00 for $57.00

Misha Cirkunov (-120) vs Nikita Krylov $240.00 for $200.00
Misha Cirkunov wins by submission (+220) 30.00 for $66.00
Misha Cirkunov wins in round 3 (+1075) $10.00 for $107.50

Olivier Aubin-Mercier (-170) vs Drew Dober $127.50 for $75.00
Olivier Aubin-Mercier wins by submission (+365) $30.00 for $109.50

Valerie Letourneau/Viviane Pereira Over 2½ (-200) $100.00 for $50.00

Matthew Lopez/Mitch Gagnon Over 2½ (-145) $108.75 for $75.00

John Makdessi/Lando Vannata Over 2½ (-120) $90.00 for $75.00

Jason Saggo (+170) vs Rustam Khabilov $75.00 for $127.50
Jason Saggo scorecards = no action (+210) vs Rustam Khabilov $75.00 for $157.50

Zach Makovsky (-170) vs Dustin Ortiz $127.50 for $75.00

Fights to go distance over 6½ (+110) $40.00 for $44.00
Fights to go distance over 7½ (+305) $25.00 for $76.25
Fights to go distance over 8½ (+900) $10.00 for $90.00
Fights to go distance over 9½ (+2750) $4.00 for $110.00
Fights to go distance over 10½ (+20000) $1.00 for $200.00

Donald Cerrone wins Fastest Submission (+800) $10.00 for $80.00
Jordan Mein wins Fastest KO (+675) $10.00 for $67.50

Max Holloway/Anthony Pettis FOTN award winner (+325) $15.00 for $48.75
Max Holloway/Anthony Pettis FOTN award winner (+1100) ~$27.16 for ~$298.76

Donald Cerrone wins POTN Bonus (+205) ~$11.64 for ~$23.86
Misha Cirkunov wins POTN Bonus (+354) ~$11.64 for ~$41.21

Parlays:
Donald Cerrone (-275) vs Matt Brown + Max Holloway (-245) vs Anthony Pettis $500.00 for $460.11
Zach Makovsky/Dustin Ortiz Over 2½ (-375 ) + Jason Saggo/Rustam Khabilov Over 2½ (-212) $200.00 for $172.83
 
Love this card but not so much for betting:

1u Pettis NSC +165
0.5u Pettis +215
0.5u Pettis ITD +390
0.05u Pettis RD4 +2550
0.05u Pettis RD5 +3750

0.75u Cerrone ITD +135
0.25u Cerrone SUB +314

1u Choi ITD +100
0.1u Choi RD3 +900

1u Gastelum +140
0.25u Gastelum DEC +272

0.5u Mein KO +205

0.125u Cirkunov DEC +450

0.5u Saggo +170
0.25u Saggo DEC +325

0.5u Saggo-Khabilov o2.5/Cerrone +109
0.5u Dober-OAM o2.5/Cerrone +107
0.5u Letourneau-Pereira o2.5/Vannata +121
0.5u Vannata/Choi +122
0.25u Vannata/Choi/Cerrone ITD/Pettis NSC +1023
 
UFC 206 Risk: 2,454.50
holloway: 100 parlays / holloway -5.5: 30 parlays / NOT holloway ITD: 25 parlay / O2.5: 48 parlays / pettis
cerrone: 150 parlays / cerrone ITD: 30 parlays / cerrone SUB: 50 for 244.50 / brown
swanson +200: 150 for 300 - 10 parlays / swanson DEC: 35 for 154 / swanson SUB: 25 for 288.75 / swanson RD3: 5 for 91.25 / swanson +3.5: 30 parlays / NOT choi ITD: 115 for 100
gastelum +135: 200 for 270 - 40 parlays / gastelum DEC: 40 for 97.20 / DEC: 99 for 60 / O2.5: 48 parlays / NOT kennedy ITD: 75 parlays
mein-meek U1.5: 50 for 55
cirkunov +105: 200 for 210.45 - 40 parlays / cirkunov DEC: 25 for 143.75 / cirkunov KO: 25 for 140.25 / krylov
OAM SUB: 20 for 98 / O2.5: 170 for 100 - 48 parlays / dober
letourneau-pereira
lopez +128: 100 for 127.50 - 10 parlays / gagnon
makdessi: 10 parlays / makdessi DEC: 30 for 105.30 / O2.5: 58.50 for 50 / NOT vannata ITD: 25 parlay
saggo +170: 100 for 170 - 10 parlays / saggo DEC: 30 for 109.50 / saggo SUB: 10 for 101.50 / saggo NSC: 100 for 210 / O2.5: 185 for 100 - 48 parlays / NOT khabilov ITD: 75 parlays
makovsky: 30 parlays / O2.5: 248 parlays / ortiz
props
DEC O6.5: 65 for 100.75
DEC O7.5: 22 for 89.32
DEC O8.5: 9 for 105.75
DEC O9.5: 3 for 117
DEC O10.5: 1 for 244
FOTN: swanson-choi: 12 for 75
parlays
50 for 43.46 makovsky-ortiz O2.5 -265 & cerrone -265
100 for 97.62 makovsky-ortiz O2.5 -265 & lima-aldrich O2.5 -230 (ufn 102)
50 for 51.66 makovsky-ortiz O2.5 -265 & kish-yoder O2.5 -210 (ufn 102)
100 for 106.08 holloway -200 & cerrone -268
50 for 62.79 NOT kennedy ITD -357, NOT khabilov ITD -410 & lima-aldrich O2.5 -240 (ufn 102)
25 for 70.29 NOT kennedy ITD -337, NOT khabilov ITD -332, NOT holloway ITD -246 & NOT vannata ITD -165
80 RR for 168.81: holloway-pettisO2.5/ gastelum-kennedyO2.5/ OAM-doberO2.5/ khabilov-saggoO2.5/ makovsky-ortizO2.5
20 RR for 249.31: swanson/ gastelum/ cirkunov/ makdessi/ saggo/ lopez
45 RR for 605.06 holloway-5.5/ cerroneITD/ swanson+3.5/ gastelum/ cirkunov/ makovsky
---

about set. might bet makovsky in next couple mins if he keeps dipping to evens. same with letourneau later.

PLZ GOD no finish for khabilov or kennedy or choi. (i'm aware the last one is risky.)
 
1u on Doo Ho Choi ITD @ +130
.66u on Max Holloway ITD @ +350
1u on Tim Kennedy @ -139
.66u on Dober + Krylov + Mein @ +756
2u on Cejudo/Benavidez O 2.5 + Holloway @ +148
Yankee totaling 2.2u on Makovsky DEC (+110) + Khabilov DEC (+110) + Mein/Meek U 1.5 (+100) + Aubin-Mercier/Dober GTD (-190)
 
Gonna be sweating during Ortiz/Makovsky with 20.5 units riding on the over. Same with the Cerrone/Brown fight with 17.5 units on Cowboy. I've been waiting for a card to go balls to the walls on and this seems to be it.

Holloway -185 1.85u
Holloway DEC +132 .5u

Cerrone ITD +125 1u
Cerrone SUB +300 .3u

Choi RD1 +225 .3u

Gastelum SUB +752 .2u

Mein -130 2.6u

Cirkunov -120 2u
Cirkunov SUB +215 .5u

Dober +145 1u
Dober/OAM O2.5 -195 2u

Saggo +180 1u
Saggo RD3 +2200 .1u

Ortiz +165 .5u
Ortiz/Makovsky O2.5 -230 11.5u


RR Parlay: Lewis + Ngannou + Anderson + Holloway + Cerrone + Choi 16u for 20.6u

Cerrone + Ortiz/Makovsky O2.5 8u for 7.1u

Cerrone + Lewis 2.5u for 2.7u

Villante + Ngannou + Ortiz/Makovsky O2.5 1u for 1.3u

+13.5 units between last night and tonight. Going heavy paid off this week, but it was stressful
 
1u Pettis NSC +165 -1u
0.5u Pettis +215 -0.5u
0.5u Pettis ITD +390 -0.5u
0.05u Pettis RD4 +2550 -0.05u
0.05u Pettis RD5 +3750 -0.05u

0.75u Cerrone ITD +135 +1.01u
0.25u Cerrone SUB +314 -0.25u

1u Choi ITD +100 -1u
0.1u Choi RD3 +900 -0.1u

1u Gastelum +140 +1.4u
0.25u Gastelum DEC +272 -0.25u

0.5u Mein KO +205 -0.5u

0.125u Cirkunov DEC +450 -0.125u

0.5u Saggo +170 -0.5u
0.25u Saggo DEC +325 -0.25u

0.5u Saggo-Khabilov o2.5/Cerrone +109 +0.55u
0.5u Dober-OAM o2.5/Cerrone +107 -0.5u
0.5u Letourneau-Pereira o2.5/Vannata +121 +0.60u
0.5u Vannata/Choi +122 -0.5u
0.25u Vannata/Choi/Cerrone ITD/Pettis NSC +1023 -0.25u

NET: -2.77u

This was a case of betting with my heart more than my head, the Pettis and Choi fights specifically. Before odds were released I said I would bet Choi if he was around evens. With the line the way it was all the value was on Cub but I went with my guy anyway. Not at all mad about it though because of how epic that fight was.

As far as Pettis, I never expected him to get stopped. I don't know how much the hand injury played into that, but regardless all the credit goes to Max. Great performance and really looking forward to seeing him fight Aldo. Anyway, still very slightly up for the weekend and this card was insane so no complaints. I know the majority here were on Max so congrats to all the Max bettors.
 
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