Your Official Fox 25 Bets

Bet Gastelum early, now I've hedged it off because Weidman's price got so high . Looking to live bet Gastelum after round 1 or 2 depending on how the fight is going.

Currently in for 0.3U Gastelum over Weidman @ $2.15 = $11.75 to win $13.50
 
1u more on Weidman @ +150
2u Laflare/Villante @ +200
2u Timmy/Albini o2.5 rounds @ -110
1u Rivera DEC @ +100
2u Sherman/Rivera @ +110
1u Elkins @ +200

Rest of my bets will be LBing.
 
Weidman 1.2u +158
Bermudez 3.7u -185
Burgos 5u -310

Parlay .5u +988
Bermudez
Sherman
Rivera
Burgos
Wade/Perez Over 2.5
Kelleher/Vera over 2.5
 
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ok, updated.. bunch of plays now:

1.5u weidman +143
0.35u weidman DEC +450
0.15u weidman SPLIT/MAJ DEC +1595
0.873u gastelum NSC +229

1.85u bermudez -185
0.1u elkins RD3 +1725

1.1u cummins -108 (bad price, meh)
0.33u cummins DEC +301
0.1u cummins RD3 +1350
0.3u villante RD1 +350

0.6u rivera DEC +174

0.875u zaleski-good O2.5 -175

0.75u anders -125
0.25u anders DEC +363

0.505u laflare DEC -101
0.925u laflare-cowboy O2.5 -185

0.525u kennedy DEC -105

0.5u wade DEC +100

1u laflare+Wade +121 (idk why i did this parlay)
 
Weidman +160 .5u
Gastelum RD4 +1500 .2u
Gastelum RD5 +2100 .3u

Bermudez -189 5u

Villante RD1 +316 1u
Villante KO +180 .5u

Almeida +175 .5u

Zaleski +170 2u

Bochniak +185 2u

Vera/Kelleher O2.5 -115 1u


Burgos -300 + Wade -230 3u for 2.75u

Kelleher -190 + Bochniak/Kennedy O2.5 -245 1u for 1.1u

Wade/Perez O2.5 -200 + Laflare -170 1u for 1.4u

Wade/Perez O2.5 -200 + Laflare/Oliveira O2.5 -245 1u for 1.1u

Unless we get some major line movement this should be it. Not watching live so no lbing for me, sad as this looks like a great card for it
 
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4u on Weidman +140 to win 5.6u.

Added:
Weidman Round 1 (+900) .5u to win 4.5u.
Weidman Round 2 (+1050) .5u to win 5.25u.
 
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Monster Meat said:
$20/$76.81
Joey Chestnut -680 win
Whittaker/Rom over 1.5 -190 win
Kelvin Gastelum -145
Jon Jones -275
Mayweather ko un dec or dq -500

$18/$69.13
Kelvin Gastelum -140
Jon Jones -265
Floyd/Conor under 9.5 +105
Click to expand...

added
$21/$50
Wade by decision -109
Laflare/Oliviera starts round 3 -297
Bermudez/Elkins starts round 3 -310
 
Sadistics said:
Weidman +160 .5u
Gastelum RD4 +1500 .2u
Gastelum RD5 +2100 .3u

Bermudez -189 5u

Villante RD1 +316 1u
Villante KO +180 .5u

Almeida +175 .5u

Zaleski +170 2u

Bochniak +185 2u

Vera/Kelleher O2.5 -115 1u


Burgos -300 + Wade -230 3u for 2.75u

Kelleher -190 + Bochniak/Kennedy O2.5 -245 1u for 1.1u

Wade/Perez O2.5 -200 + Laflare -170 1u for 1.4u

Wade/Perez O2.5 -200 + Laflare/Oliveira O2.5 -245 1u for 1.1u

Unless we get some major line movement this should be it. Not watching live so no lbing for me, sad as this looks like a great card for it
Click to expand...

Added Gastelum -160 + Bochniak/Kennedy O2.5 -275 3u for 3.65u, and Anders -117 1u. Seriously considering adding more to that over
 
5u Bermudez @1.53
1u Villante @2.00
1u Rivera+Burgos @1.95
1u Burgos+Laflare @2.00

props: 0.1u Weidman SUB r1 @23.00 , 0.1u Weidman SUB r2 @26.00
*I'll livebet gastelum at some point
 
Tim + Rivera .50u
Tim + Dennis .50
Tim + burgos + Wade .30.u
Tim + kelleher + Rivera + Dennis .25u

Tim + kelleher + burgos + Wade .25u

Tim dec + Rivera dec + Wade dec .20u

Tim Dec .15u

Hail Mary -

Burgos + Wade + Weidman/has starts round 2 + boch/Kennedy goes the dis + kelleher wins by dec + Johnson wins by dec .25u

.50u Rivera + Kelleher
.25u burgos + Kelleher
.25u Wade + kelleher
.50u Dennis + Rivera + kelleher
.25u Dennis + Rivera + burgos
.25u Dennis + river + Wade
.25u Dennis + burgos
 
fuck dammit! can't believe I didn't load up on 2.6+ on weidman, down to 2.5 now. still adding more at that price, I think it shortens from here.

anyone know roughly how big the weight difference is btw?

edit: whoops wrong thread..
 
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2u Gastelum -111
2u Bermudez -200
1.5u Wade/Perez O2.5 -200
1u Bochniak +220
1u Zaleski +162

1u Natal/Anders GTD +138
0.33u Bermudez ITD +450

2u Bermudez + Rivera +113
2u Bochniak/Kennedy O2.5 + Oliveira/Laflare O2.5 -105

Won't be able to watch this live so GL all.
 
3.5u Weidman +159
0.7u Weidman NSC +173

2u Bermudez -185
0.35u Bermudez -3,5 +165

1.5u Rivera -185

0.55u Zaleski +170

0.5u Bochniak +220

0.15u Pepey R1 +875
 
2u Weidman +135
1u Weidman +165
1u Weidman ITD +319 (Planning to live bet Kelvin and got a tad carried away. 1st round finish from The Chris would be pretty sweet now)
1u VIllante ITD +160
2u Rivera -140 (May flip to Almeida, but this price feels too good)
1u Oliveira +175 (Don't want this; lines didn't move like I hoped and I feel stuck)
2u Burgos + Tim Johnson +100
0.58u Cummins +185 (Freeroll VIllante ITD)
0.66u Bochniak/Kennedy GTD + Sherman/Grabowski ITD + Elkins/Bermudez Starts R3 + Oliveira/Laflare Starts R3 +200 (Not sure why I added this)

TOTAL RISK: ~11u

Overboard on Weidman, and on Rivera and Oliveira when I don't really want to be. Throw in a parlay and a 1u prop play and we've got what feels like a real losing recipe, haha. I'm definitely pessimistic, but I'm so due to get crushed.
 
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UFC Fox 25 Risk: 2,399.30
weidman +145: 200 for 289.50 - 20 parlays / weidman DEC: 35 for 157.50 - 12.50 parlays / weidman SPLIT: 15 for 239.25 / gastelum RD3: 5 parlays
/ gastelum NSC: 87.30 for 200
bermudez -194: 387.50 for 200 / bermudez DEC: 40 parlays / bermudez -3.5: 30 for 49.50 - 35 parlays / elkins RD3: 10 for 172.50
cummins +117: 150 for for 175.50 - 20 parlays / cummins DEC: 33 for 99.33 - 12.50 parlays / cummins RD3: 10 for 135 - 5 parlays / villante RD1: 30 for 105 - 7.50 parlays
rivera DEC: 90 for 149.50 - 20 parlays / rivera -3.5: 15 parlays / DEC: 40 parlays / almeida
zaleski +145i: 100 for 145 - 35 parlays / zaleski DEC: 7.50 parlays / zaleski RD3: 10 for 185 - 5 parlays / O2.5: 87.50 for 50 / good
anders -125: 75 for 60 / anders DEC: 25 for 90.75 - 7.50 parlays / anders RD1: 12.50 parlays / anders RD3: 5 parlays / anders NSC: 68.50 for 50 / natal
laflare: 100 parlay / laflare DEC: 50.50 for 50 - 40 parlays / laflare -3.5: 15 parlays / O2.5: 92.50 for 50 / oliveira
sherman RD2: 12.50 parlays / grabowski SUB: 5 parlays
kennedy DEC: 52.50 for 50 - 40 parlays / kennedy -3.5: 15 parlays / bochniak
vera ITD: 7.50 parlays / vera SUB: 25 for 203.75 / vera RD3: 5 parlays / vera NSC: 55 for 99 - 20 parlays / kelleher RD1: 20 for 75 - 5 parlays
johnson ITD: 15 parlays / johnson RD2: 25 for 131.25 - 17.50 parlays / johnson RD3: 15 for 142.50 - 5 parlays / albini
burgos RD2: 40 for 185.50 - 15 parlays / burgos RD3: 30 for 257.50 - 5 parlays / pepey SUB: 10 for 78.90 / pepey NSC: 15 for 62.40 - 5 parlays
wade: 100 parlay / wade DEC: 50 for 50 - 40 parlays / wade SUB: 12.50 parlays / wade RD3: 10 for 130 - 5 parlays / wade -3.5: 15 parlays / perez
props
DEC O6.5: 53 for 50
DEC O7.5: 21 for 51.66
DEC O8.5: 10 for 61.40
DEC O9.5: 5 for 91.10
DEC O10.5: 1 for 74
FOTN: rivera-almeida: 10 for 70
parlays
100 for 121.03: laflare -185 & wade -230
100 RR for 261.87: bermudezDEC/ almeidariveraDEC/ laflareDEC/ kennedyDEC/ wadeDEC
40 RR for 615.17: weidman/ bermudez-3.5/ cummins/ riveraDEC/ zaleski/ veraNSC
15 RR for 3,592: cumminsRD3/ zaleskiRD3/ andersRD3/ veraRD3/ johnsonRD3/ wadeRD3
22.50 for 468.17: weidmanDEC/ cumminsDEC/ zaleskiDEC/ andersDEC/ veraITD/ burgosRD2
22.50 for 643.06: villanteRD1/ andersRD1/ shermanRD2/ johnsonRD2/ burgosRD2/ wadeSUB
15 RR for 542.53: weidmanDEC/ cumminsDEC/ andersRD1/ sherman RD2/ johnsonRD2/ burgosRD3
15 RR for 520.69: gastelumRD3/ grabowskiSUB/ kelleherRD1/ johnsonRD2/ pepeyNSC/ wadeSUB
35 RR for 455.32: bermudez-3.5/ rivera-3.5/ zaleski/ laflare-3.5/ kennedy-3.5/ johnsonITD/ wade-3.5
---

pretty much ready for tomorrow, barring big line shifts
 
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2u Weidman 2,30
2u Villante 1,90
2u Rivera + Perez/Wade O2,5 2,25
2u Rivera + Johnson 2,18
2u Johnson/Albini U2.5 1,90
2u Bermudez + Wade 1,93
2u Bermudez + Natal 2,90
1,5u Natal/Anders O1.5 + Grabowski/Sherman ITD 2,04
1u Laflare/Oliveira O2.5 + Rivera/Almeida O1.5 2,10
1u Johnson + Cummins/Villante O1.5 2,21
1u Johnson + Weidman/Gastelum O1.5 + Rivera/Almeida O1.5 2,81
0,5u Weidman + Grabowski + Natal/Anders O1.5 11,43
0,5u Burgos/Pepey O1.5 + Perez/Wade O2.5 + Rivera/Almeida O1.5 4,29
0,5u Kennedy DEC + Wade DEC 3,64

If Rivera and Bermudez both lose I will most likely have a terrible night.
Got no money on Good/Zaleski and Kelleher/Vera.

I like Weidman and Natal as dogs, and I got Villante at evens. Very small on Grabowski.
I also give Zaleski, Black Cowboy and Pepey a shot at making an upset happen, but I don't feel like putting money on them.

For the next event I decided to do no parlays at all, gotta try something new {<tongue}
 
1u Weidman +150
1u Weidman NSC +155
0.1u Weidman SUB +861
0.1u Weidman RD1 +925
0.1u Weidman RD2 +1075

1.85u Bermudez -185

0.5u Villante ITD +165
0.3u Villante RD1 +310
0.25u Cummins DEC +313
0.05u Cummins RD3 +1475

3.5u Rivera -140

1u Oliveira +175
0.05u Oliveira RD3 +1800

0.5u Zaleski +145
0.05u Zaleski RD3 +1850

0.85u Anders-Natal o1.5 -170
0.6u Anders -120

0.5u Bochniak +248
0.5u Bochniak DEC +335

0.5u Burgos-Pepey u1.5 +105
0.2u Pepey SUB +856

0.545u Wade DEC -109

1u Burgos/Bermudez -112
0.5u Oliveria-LaFlare o2.5/Bermudez +108
0.5u Wade-Perez o2.5/Burgos -103
0.5u Wade/Bermudez +101
0.2u Burgos/Rivera/Bermudez/Weidman +571
0.1u Wade/Burgos/Johnson/Kelleher/Bochniak/Zaleski/Rivera/Villante/Bermudez/Weidman +23337

0.8u RR (3s,4s,5) Wade DEC/Burgos-Pepey u1.5/Kelleher DEC/Villante ITD/Bermudez -3.5
0.8u RR (2s,6) Bochniak DEC/Oliveira ITD/Anders DEC/Zaleski DEC/Rivera KO/Weidman DEC

Got a little carried away since I'm going to this event. Hopefully I don't get burned too badly. Best of luck everyone.
 
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added .50 weidman ml,
.10u gas round 3
.5u gas round 4
.5u gas round 5

.10u kelleher by dec

.10u vill in round 1

.5u sherman by dec

hail mary

.15u weid/gas starts round 2 + Dennis/elkins starts round 2 + rivera/alemida starts round 2 + santos/good starts round 2 + olveria/laflare starts round 2 + boch/kenn starts round 3 + vera/kelleher starts round 2 + johnson/albini starts round 2 + perez/wade starts round 2
 
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