International [Oil & Gas News] America Achieved Energy Independence As The World's Top Oil Producer (2018-2019)

[Arkain2K]

U.S. Oil Vanishing From Chinese Tariffs Reveals America's Clout
Bloomberg News August 9, 2018

​

The removal of U.S. crude from goods targeted by Chinese tariffs is a sign that America has become too big to ignore in the oil market.

Less than two months after threatening to impose levies on imports of U.S. crude, the world’s biggest oil buyer has now spared the commodity. Only fuels such as diesel, gasoline, propane will be hit with duties on Aug. 23, according to China’s commerce ministry. That’s after the nation’s buyers, including top refiner Sinopec, began shunning American supplies to avoid the risk of tariffs.

China’s original plan to target U.S. crude came at an inopportune time for the country’s buyers. Sinopec’s trading unit, Unipec, was embroiled in a dispute with Saudi Arabia, saying the producer’s prices were costly and cutting purchases just as it was boosting American imports. Two months on, refiners were faced with the risk of supply disruptions from Iran to Venezuela and paying more to take advantage of booming U.S. output.

“The U.S. has been and will remain the main source of incremental crude production globally,” said Den Syahril, an analyst at industry consultant FGE. “With several new refineries starting up over the next couple of years, China would thus be wary of taking a decision that could end up severely hurting its domestic refining industry.”

Before the tariff kerfuffle, U.S. crude exports to China had risen to 15 million barrels in June, the highest volume in data going back to 1996, according to U.S. Census Bureau and Energy Information Administration data. That made the Asian country the biggest buyer of American supply.

The shale boom, meanwhile, lifted U.S. output to an unprecedented 11 million barrels a day last month, establishing it in the ranks of other top producers Russia and Saudi Arabia. The increase has also weakened the cost of American supply relative to Middle East benchmark Dubai and Atlantic Basin marker Brent, raising the allure of U.S. shipments to Asia -- the world’s biggest oil consuming region.

Rival Purchases

While China’s Sinopec was avoiding purchases, regional rivals including Indian Oil Corp., Thailand’s PTT Pcl, Taiwan’s Formosa Petrochemical Corp., South Korea’s GS Caltex Corp. and SK Innovation Co. have been buying up American crude cargoes for delivery in the coming months.

Wednesday’s decision to omit crude will give Unipec the chance to bring crude cargoes loading from the U.S. in June and July into China without incurring additional costs, Michal Meidan, an analyst at industry consultant Energy Aspects Ltd., wrote in an emailed note on Aug. 8. However, she cautioned that refiners in the Asian nation may still be wary of boosting American oil purchases because it may yet be targeted with tariffs if tensions escalate.

The Chinese government decided to change the list of tariffs after consulting with industry associations and corporations to protect the interests of domestic consumers and companies, according to a statement posted on the Ministry of Finance’s website.

Rising Costs

A decline in operations at China’s independent refiners has raised prices of some fuels in the nation, according to Li Li, an analyst with Shanghai-based commodities researcher ICIS China. “If major refiners, who are U.S. oil buyers, incur a deficit, it’s possible the domestic market will face a fuel shortage as well as rising crude feedstock costs,” Li said.

American sanctions that will target oil exports from Iran starting in November are another risk. Concern is growing that U.S. President Donald Trump’s measures will curb the OPEC producer’s shipments at a time when production from another group member, Venezuela, is also dwindling in the midst of an economic meltdown. Both the producers are suppliers to China.

“With oil from Iran and Venezuela at risk, U.S. crude is offering Chinese refiners a good and abundant alternative,” said Sophie Shi, a Beijing-based analyst with consultant IHS Markit Ltd. “Imagine if this ideal resource was cut off. That would leave China solely dependent on Saudi Arabia, which seems too risky.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-from-chinese-tariffs-reveals-america-s-clout

 

[Arkain2K]

 

[Arkain2K]

US shale growth will offset global production problems over the coming months, analysts say
By Sam Meredith | August 15, 2018

A worker pauses while drilling for oil on a derrick in the Bakken shale formation outside Watford City, North Dakota.​

A sustained upswing in U.S. shale growth is likely to offset global production problems over the coming months, energy analysts told CNBC on Wednesday.

The mood music in the energy market has been heavily influenced by a flurry of demand-side developments of late, with investors continuing to monitor an escalating trade war between the U.S. and China, the financial crisis in Turkey and a resurgent U.S. dollar.

Yet, industry analysts point out the U.S. shale boom is perhaps the most notable supply consideration not currently receiving the attention it deserves.

"The explosion in U.S. tight oil production has long been the dominant supply catalyst within the energy complex but now finds itself at the tail end of concerns. Even so, its ascent continues apace," Stephen Brennock, oil analyst at PVM Oil Associates, said in a research note published Wednesday.

'Better financial shape than ever' before

On Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported U.S. crude stocks rose by almost 4 million barrels per day in the week to August 10 — climbing to levels of 410.8 million barrels.

Alongside a weakening global economic outlook, the API report appeared to weigh on oil prices on Wednesday afternoon, with international benchmark Brent crude trading at around $71.97 — down almost 0.7 percent. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at $66.38, off nearly 1 percent.

"U.S. shale doom-mongers should not get ahead of themselves. They ought to remember that the U.S. shale patch is in better financial shape than ever … When it comes to U.S. shale, it is still very much a case of the only way is up," Brennock said.

Official U.S. oil inventory data is due to be published by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) later on Wednesday.

The price of oil collapsed from near $120 a barrel in June 2014 due to weak demand, a strong dollar and booming U.S. shale production. OPEC's reluctance to cut output was also seen as a key reason behind the fall. But, the oil cartel soon moved to curb production — along with other oil producing nations in late 2016.

Supply disruptions

Investors are currently seen weighing bullish factors that include potential supply disruptions to Iranian crude exports against more bearish indicators, such as broad greenback strength and a ramp-up in production by OPEC and its allied partners.

"The key medium-term question for the supply side of the oil market is: How much longer can rapid U.S. oil supply growth continue to offset poor production outcomes in the rest of the world?" Harry Colvin, director and senior economist at Longview Economics, said in a research note published Wednesday.

He estimated that without U.S crude production, the world's supply deficit would likely increase by around 5.3 million barrels per day over the next five years.

But, Longview Economics' Colvin forecast that because America's crude supply is not determined by politics or ageing oil fields — unlike other major producers — it "could, and will, fill in most of that gap."

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/15/us-...obal-production-problems-over-the-coming.html

 

[surrealworlds]

What happened to fracking poisoning water tables? There was a documentary where a guy could light the fumes on fire coming out of his waterhose.
Did they fix those problems, brush them under the rug or just say fuck it, more money?

 

[JohnnySagebrush]

Something is rotten in US shale production. Despite rising productivity, companies still aren’t making money. The last I’ve heard, the average return on asset is 0.8. That’s pretty horrible for something that is in no way a nascent industry.

Sounds crazy, right? Especially given everything we hear about increasing production and efficiency. Injections of capital driven by speculation are what have always kept shale afloat. But you can only rob Peter to pay Paul for so long; eventually there must be a correction. When will it pay off? When Wall Street stops throwing cash at fracking companies, we are set to see a big shake-up.

For anyone interested in this, look up Art Berman as a start.

 

[Rod1]

What happened to fracking poisoning water tables? There was a documentary where a guy could light the fumes on fire coming out of his waterhose.
Did they fix those problems, brush them under the rug or just say fuck it, more money?

Of course they fixed it, Oil companies care about nothing else but the enviroment.

 

[Arkain2K]

Is Deepwater Drilling More Profitable Than Shale?
By Nick Cunningham - Aug 14, 2018

Just as the U.S. shale patch is starting to look a little crowded, deepwater drilling could see a comeback.​

Royal Dutch Shell says that offshore drilling is now more competitive than onshore shale drilling, upending what has become conventional wisdom since the 2014 oil market meltdown. The downturn was thought to place a premium on short-cycle shale drilling, dramatically reducing the risk companies face by allowing them to quickly earn their money back in a matter of months or even weeks on individual shale wells.

In sharp contrast, deepwater drilling requires huge upfront outlays, and promises returns that extend over years or even decades, not a particularly desirable place to be in the “lower for longer” environment or in a world in which peak oil demand looms.

But Shell argues that the earnings are much better offshore. “The most excitement at the moment is from the deepwater,” Andy Brown, Shell’s head of exploration and production, told the Financial Times in an interview. Shell has prioritized projects in Brazil (aided by the $50 billion acquisition of BG Group), the Gulf of Mexico and the North Sea.

The reason why deepwater drilling is so exciting to Shell is that the cost of new projects has fallen significantly in recent years. “Deepwater can compete if not demonstrate higher returns because of fundamental cost reduction,” Brown said. “Break-even prices in deepwater — we are now talking $30 per barrel.”

That compares favorably to a lot of onshore shale plays, and in fact, it would beat out just about everywhere that shale companies are drilling. For instance, the SCOOP in Oklahoma has a breakeven price in the mid-$60s per barrel, according to data from Bloomberg New Energy Finance from earlier this year. That is on the upper end, but even more competitive areas are much costlier than the figures that Shell is citing. The Eagle Ford breaks even at between $48 and $61 per barrel, the Bakken at $53 to $56, the Niobrara at $63 and the Delaware basin (Permian) at $57 per barrel. Even the Midland Permian, arguably the most prized shale region in the country, breaks even at about $37 per barrel, BNEF says.

With those figures in mind, the oil industry is going back into deepwater. According to Rystad Energy, there have already been 45 offshore projects that have received final investment decisions this year, more than all of 2016 combined. Moreover, offshore FIDs this year are on track to exceed the 2017 total by more than 50 percent.

Next year and the year after could see even more action. A new report from Wood Mackenzie estimates that the oil industry will approve about $300 billion in spending between 2019 and 2020.

Shell is aiming to generate between $6 and $7 billion in annual organic free cash flow by 2020 from its upstream unit. “It’s great to have both in the portfolio and we are growing our shales business . . . but in terms of sheer cash flow delivery our deepwater has significantly more cash flow potential,” Shell’s Andy Brown told the FT.

Shell has ambitious plans for Mexico’s offshore sector, and the Anglo-Dutch oil major scooped up 19 blocks across several auctions. Shell is also one of the largest oil producers in Brazil and secured a foothold in the country before the government liberalized energy laws a few years ago. The Gulf of Mexico in U.S. waters is also a key part of Shell’s portfolio.

Not all of the oil majors are following in Shell’s footsteps. Many of them are pursuing a somewhat mixed approach, moving forward on some major offshore projects while also substantially beefing up their shale business. For example, BP just bought the shale assets from BHP Billiton for over $10 billion, making it a major producer in the Permian. Still, the British oil major has also given the greenlight to a few offshore projects including the Mad Dog phase 2.

ExxonMobil is also pursuing this dual-track approach. Exxon spent more than $6 billion in early 2017 to expand its presence in the Permian, but the supermajor is also prioritizing the development of its offshore discoveries in Guyana. Meanwhile, ConocoPhillips swore off offshore drilling during the oil market downturn and instead promised to focus increasingly on shale.

In other words, there isn’t a consensus approach going forward in this era in which shale is growing quickly and long-term demand growth remains questionable. The oil majors are going about it different ways. But unlike the doldrums that the offshore sector found itself in during the 2014-2016 bust, offshore drilling is no longer playing second fiddle to onshore shale in terms of attracting scarce investment dollars.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Is-Deepwater-Drilling-More-Profitable-Than-Shale.html

 

[Arkain2K]

 

[Prutfis]

So maybe the US could stop bending the knee and get tough on S.A. The number 1 exporter of terrorism in the world.

 

[NoDak]

So maybe the US could stop bending the knee and get tough on S.A. The number 1 exporter of terrorism in the world.

Just became world's largest producer last week.

http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/america-just-reclaimed-the-title-of-1-global-oil-producer.3825359/

 

[Arkain2K]

U.S. has taken over as the world's top oil producer
Country has leapfrogged past Saudis and now Russians too, preliminary numbers suggest
The Associated Press · Posted: Sep 12, 2018

The United States may have reclaimed the title of the world's biggest oil producer sooner than expected.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said Wednesday that America "likely surpassed" Russia in June and August after jumping over Saudi Arabia earlier this year.

The agency says that conclusion is based on preliminary estimates.

If those estimates are right, it would mark the first time since 1973 that the U.S. has led the world in output, according to government figures.

U.S. production jumped in recent years because of techniques including hydraulic fracturing, or "fracking," which is the use of chemicals, sand, water and high pressure to crack rock formations deep below ground, releasing more oil and natural gas.

Fracking is driving a drilling boom in the Permian Basin under Texas and New Mexico. The practice is controversial, however. Opponents say that fracking results in toxic contamination of groundwater and increases the number of earthquakes in places like Oklahoma and Texas.

The U.S. energy agency estimated that the United States produced an average of 10.9 million barrels a day in August, compared with about 10.8 million barrels a day by Russia and around 10.4 million from Saudi Arabia. It said the U.S. passed Saudi Arabia in February for the first time in more than two decades, and this summer it topped Russia for the first time since 1999.

The agency expects the U.S. will continue to top Russia and Saudi Arabia for the rest of this year and through 2019.

U.S. production has soared since 2011, led by output from the Permian Basin, North Dakota and the Gulf of Mexico. The pace of drilling slowed after oil prices tumbled starting in 2014, but roared back as operators learned to produce oil more efficiently and crude prices rebounded.

Production has been relatively steady in Russia and Saudi Arabia, both of which took part in an OPEC agreement to limit output beginning in 2016 to drive up prices.

The U.S. agency said its data on Russian production comes mainly from the Russian Ministry of Oil but also oil companies and industry publications. The agency said figures on Saudi output are based on its own internal estimates.

The U.S. led the world in oil production for much of the last century until the Soviet Union and later Saudi Arabia passed it during the 1970s. Until the last few years, it seemed far-fetched that the U.S. would ever regain the No. 1 spot.

Daniel Yergin, author of "The Prize," a history of the oil industry, said the rebound of U.S. production helped avert a severe shortage of world oil that would have sent prices far higher.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration and the International Energy Agency, a global group of oil-consuming nations, had predicted that the U.S. would eventually pass Russia and Saudi Arabia but possibly not until 2019.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/u-s-oil-production-1.4820857

 

[Arkain2K]

Record U.S., Russia and Saudi oil production means supply well outstrips global demand
By Rachel Koning Beals | Nov 14, 2018

The U.S., Russia and Saudi Arabia are pumping crude at record levels, causing global supply to significantly outrun demand, a monthly update from the International Energy Agency showed Wednesday.

The IEA said oil output from the world’s three biggest producers is holding global supply steady, at around 100.7 million barrels a day last month. That’s 2.6 million barrels a day higher than the same period last year.

Since May, global oil output has climbed by 1.8 million barrels a day. The U.S. has provided 1 million barrels a day of growth and Saudi Arabia and Russia added 620,000 barrels a day and 445,000 barrels a day, respectively, the agency said.

Earlier this week, in its annual World Energy Outlook, the IEA said its main projection scenario through to 2040 foresees the U.S. accounting for nearly 75% and 40% of global oil and gas growth, respectively, over the next six years. Growth is expected to be driven primarily by shale fracking. U.S. shale oil supply is expected to more than double, reaching 9.2 million barrels a day by the mid-2020s, the agency said.

The IEA’s update comes as crude prices CLF9, +1.89% LCOF9, +1.22% have fallen into bear-market territory, with prices down more than 20% since four-year highs reached at the start of October. The U.S. benchmark has already logged a record-setting 12 straight session drops before Wednesday’s action. A supply build has driven that market move, as has weakening global economic growth and the decision by the Trump administration to grant waivers to major buyers of Iranian crude following the enactment of sanctions, a factor that had been expected to keep most Iranian oil off the market.

The price drop prompted the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia, to signal on Sunday that it could enact a joint production cut. Such a move would come just months after the group decided to ramp up production after more than a year of holding back output.

Plus, President Donald Trump has been consistently advocating for lower oil prices and on Monday issued another tweet urging for even lower prices.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/r...y-well-outstrips-global-demand-iea-2018-11-14

 

[Arkain2K]

US: From largest oil consumer to biggest producer
By Sonny Atumah | November 24, 2018​

The United States oil nudged in the 11 million barrels per day mark to position it as the world’s biggest producer of crude oil in September 2018. From the Short Term Energy Outlook, STEO, records of the United States Energy Information Administration, EIA, it appeared technology and resilient policies of the United States have given a soared domestic production of about 11.6 million barrels of crude oil per day.

Rapid technological advances in drilling through hydrofracking, gave rise to the shale revolution that beat the Peak Oil syndrome of the 70s and unlocked new sources of vast oil and natural gas that had been trapped underground.

With declining production costs the EIA expects the US oil production to stay ahead of Russia and Saudi Arabia to reclaim its lost crown in August 2018. The EIA expects the U.S. crude oil production to remain through 2018 and 2019.

In 2017, China surpassed the U.S. in annual gross crude oil imports by importing 8.4 million barrels per day, bpd compared with 7.9 million bpd of U.S. crude oil imports. Would it be an uphill struggle for America to maintain its acquired new status? It appears the crude oil outlook in 2019 would be a defining moment if the United States light sweet crude continues to exceed Russian and Saudi Arabian crude oil production.

The International Energy Agency, IEA also strongly believes that the American shale revolution would continue to have effect on the global oil industry that oil producers would continue to have shifts in policies and strategies. The IEA latest World Energy Outlook strong view is that the United States will be the biggest contributor to global oil production growth to 2040, accounting for 75 percent of the total world oil production. According to the IEA, “The shale revolution continues to shake up oil and gas supply, enabling the United States to pull away from the rest of the field as the world’s largest oil and gas producer.”
​

By 2025, nearly every fifth barrel of oil and every fourth cubic metre of gas in the world would come from the United States. The United States Secretary of Energy, Rick Perry in a testimonial said: “For the first time in 60 years, the United States is now the world’s largest producer of oil and natural gas, and we are now exporting natural gas to 30 nations on five continents.

Approving short-term LNG exports from projects like Corpus Christi is just one example of how the Administration is pursuing energy dominance and boosting our economy.” America’s technology indeed, moved so quickly that the resource constraint was more like a blip. But America’s assumed dominance in energy did not come by fiat and flight. It came through diligent prosecution of bipartisan energy policies by successive administrations.

By 2015, the US unconventional crude oil output was nearing 9.5 million barrels per day, a level not seen since 1972, when production went into decline. The shale oil revolution of the United States is indeed, changing crude oil outlook as America has doubled its output in the last decade. Ten years ago, Nigeria was a major buyer of Nigeria’s Bonny light sweet crude oil; importing over 1 million bpd. The American shale oil has now replaced that of Nigeria that it now has a capability of producing and exporting crude as Congress approved in 2015.

The S&P Global Platts Analytics predicts that the US crude oil exports will hit nearly 4 million barrels per day in 2020. If indeed, the rise of the United States shale oil does not plateau in the 2020s and decline in the 2030s, oil dependent nations including OPEC may be in for it. By 1973, America faced one of its greatest energy challenges when the Middle East members in OPEC slammed an embargo from October 1973 to November 1974. The call by President Richard Nixon for “Independence” in energy in his address to the nation about National Energy Policy on November 25, 1973 was what was followed through till the American shale that appeared to be invulnerable to high production costs.

The shale technology is the result of over 40 years of research and development that increased global glut which ignited the great price of crude crash of 2014. The shale boom is however, not full proof for America. The United States refineries require the heavy sour crudes imported mostly from the Middle East. Revenue generated from its light sweet crude will mitigate crude imports of nearly US$500 billion annually.

https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/11/us-from-largest-oil-consumer-to-biggest-producer-2/

 

[Arkain2K]

U.S. shale output forecast to hit record 8.46 million bpd in May
Devika Krishna Kumar, Scott DiSavino | April 15, 2019

U.S. crude oil output from seven major shale formations is expected to rise by about 80,000 barrels per day (bpd) in May to a record 8.46 million bpd, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its monthly drilling productivity report on Monday.

The largest change is forecast in the Permian Basin of Texas and New Mexico, where output is expected to climb by 42,000 bpd to a fresh peak of about 4.14 million bpd in May.

In North Dakota’s Bakken region, shale production is estimated to rise by about 11,000 bpd to about 1.39 million bpd, easing from a record 1.41 million bpd hit in January. In the Eagle Ford region, output is expected to edge higher by 7,000 bpd to about 1.43 million bpd, which would be the highest monthly output since January 2016.

Production growth in the Permian and other key shale basins have slowed as oil prices fell in the fourth quarter and many shale companies cut spending in the face of investor pressure to focus on earnings growth instead of increased output.

Prices have rebounded this year, but drillers are expected to remain cautious. Some shale producers are turning to workforce cuts as investors step up demands for returns.

However, major oil companies are boosting their presence, particularly in the Permian, the largest U.S. shale oil field.

The U.S. rig count, an early indicator of future output, remains higher than a year ago.

The EIA said producers drilled 1,388 wells and completed 1,392, the most since January 2015, in the biggest shale basins in March, leaving total drilled but uncompleted (DUC) wells down 4 at 8,500, according to data going back to December 2013.

That was the first decline in DUCs since March 2018. The DUCs hit a record high 8,504 in February.

Separately, U.S. natural gas output was projected to increase to a record 79.8 billion cubic feet per day in May, the EIA. That would be up 0.9 bcfd over the April forecast and mark the 16th consecutive monthly increase.

A year ago in May, output was 67.4 bcfd.

The EIA projected gas output would increase in all the big shale basins in May, except Anadarko in Oklahoma and Texas.

Output in the Appalachia region in Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia, the nation’s biggest shale gas play, was set to rise almost 0.4 bcfd to a record 32.2 bcfd in May. Appalachia production was 27.1 bcfd in May a year ago.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...cord-846-million-bpd-in-may-eia-idUSKCN1RR20S

 

[Vitor CroCop]

A damn rock flies right through a piece of paper. Lets put that myth to rest, right now. Paper wrecks rock.

this post makes no sense

 

[Seano]

this post makes no sense

Should have had a question mark at the end to express contempt.

 

[Scerpi]

U.S. shale output forecast to hit record 8.46 million bpd in May
Devika Krishna Kumar, Scott DiSavino | April 15, 2019

U.S. crude oil output from seven major shale formations is expected to rise by about 80,000 barrels per day (bpd) in May to a record 8.46 million bpd, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its monthly drilling productivity report on Monday.

The largest change is forecast in the Permian Basin of Texas and New Mexico, where output is expected to climb by 42,000 bpd to a fresh peak of about 4.14 million bpd in May.

In North Dakota’s Bakken region, shale production is estimated to rise by about 11,000 bpd to about 1.39 million bpd, easing from a record 1.41 million bpd hit in January. In the Eagle Ford region, output is expected to edge higher by 7,000 bpd to about 1.43 million bpd, which would be the highest monthly output since January 2016.

Production growth in the Permian and other key shale basins have slowed as oil prices fell in the fourth quarter and many shale companies cut spending in the face of investor pressure to focus on earnings growth instead of increased output.

Prices have rebounded this year, but drillers are expected to remain cautious. Some shale producers are turning to workforce cuts as investors step up demands for returns.

However, major oil companies are boosting their presence, particularly in the Permian, the largest U.S. shale oil field.

The U.S. rig count, an early indicator of future output, remains higher than a year ago.

The EIA said producers drilled 1,388 wells and completed 1,392, the most since January 2015, in the biggest shale basins in March, leaving total drilled but uncompleted (DUC) wells down 4 at 8,500, according to data going back to December 2013.

That was the first decline in DUCs since March 2018. The DUCs hit a record high 8,504 in February.

Separately, U.S. natural gas output was projected to increase to a record 79.8 billion cubic feet per day in May, the EIA. That would be up 0.9 bcfd over the April forecast and mark the 16th consecutive monthly increase.

A year ago in May, output was 67.4 bcfd.

The EIA projected gas output would increase in all the big shale basins in May, except Anadarko in Oklahoma and Texas.

Output in the Appalachia region in Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia, the nation’s biggest shale gas play, was set to rise almost 0.4 bcfd to a record 32.2 bcfd in May. Appalachia production was 27.1 bcfd in May a year ago.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...cord-846-million-bpd-in-may-eia-idUSKCN1RR20S

It's all fun and games until OPEC decides the flood the market crater Oil prices again.

Venezuala had to be begging countries to let prices go over $100/barrel at this point. Though I doubt they've kept on maintenance on their equipment if you go by the state of their Electrical Grid.

 

[Happy Man]

So maybe the US could stop bending the knee and get tough on S.A. The number 1 exporter of terrorism in the world.

There is no way isreal allows that. They want everyone focused on Iran.

Which by the way is NOT a state sponsor of terror. But some people would have you believe defending Lebanon is terrorism.

 

[Arkain2K]

With the U.S flushing with oil, $100/barrel of Middle East crude is a thing of the past. Once all the kinks are worked out, my guess is global prices will stabilize at the $60-$70 range, no matter what OPEC and Russia does, because the United States will soon be the world's top oil exporter.

If they ever think about cutting production, American oil would simply swoop in and take their market share right under them.

Well, that happened exactly as predicted, and now Russia is having second thoughts about the production cap they agreed with OPEC.

The conundrum that OPEC+ found themselves in is that if worldwide oil prices does drop, some U.S shale producers will go on hiatus for sure, but their petroleum-reliance Treasury will soon be empty.

Russian Finance Minister:
Russia, OPEC may ditch oil deal to fight for market share
April 13, 2019​

​

Russia and OPEC may decide to boost production to fight for market share with the United States but this would push oil prices as low as $40 per barrel, TASS news agency сited Russia's Finance Minister Anton Siluanov as saying on Saturday.

"There is a dilemma. What should we do with OPEC: should we lose the market, which is being occupied by the Americans, or quit the deal?" Anton Siluanov, speaking in Washington, said, TASS reported.

"(If the deal is abandoned) the oil prices will go down, then the new investments will shrink, American output will be lower, because the production cost for shale oil is higher than for traditional output."

Siluanov said oil prices could drop to $40 per barrel or even less for up to one year.

The minister said there had been no decision on the deal yet and he did not know whether OPEC countries would be happy with this scenario.

OPEC, Russia and other producers, an alliance known as OPEC+, are reducing output by 1.2 million bpd from Jan. 1 for six months. They meet on June 25-26 to decide whether to extend the pact.

The combined supply cuts have helped to drive a 32 percent rally in crude prices this year to nearly $72 a barrel, prompting U.S. President Donald Trump to call on OPEC to ease its market-supporting efforts. OPEC has said the curbs must remain, but there are signs that stance is now softening.

Earlier this week, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters that OPEC could raise oil output from July if Venezuelan and Iranian supply drops further and prices keep rallying, because extending production cuts with Russia and other allies could overtighten the market.

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1RP0CM

 

[Gregolian]

So maybe the US could stop bending the knee and get tough on S.A. The number 1 exporter of terrorism in the world.

To be fair, I think imported oil Canada tops the US's list.

I think the SA cowtowing has more to do with wanting an Arab ran country as an ally in the region at this stage and less to do with oil.