Why do some fighters start declining (e.g., Ellenberger) at even young ages?

[DOMMA]

You're using a picture of him hulking out after a win compared to weigh in pics

Here is a weigh in against Diego Sanchez, prior to his losing streak:

Jake's downslide started happening before USADA. Since then he's also spent some time with GOAT Edmund.

I am not saying the guy is for sure 100% clean or anything but to use those pictures is pretty silly. He had 25 professional MMA fights in a 5ish year span BEFORE the UFC. He also was a collegiate wrestler despite having no wrestling experience meaning he did this as an adult. A lot of wear and tear is a better explanation than straight up saying it's all because of USADA. Again, he started losing BEFORE USADA. And how he loses his fights now is typical to how he has always lost them (drops/hurts the other fighter but can't finish then gets dropped/hurt himself, inability to pull the trigger)

I did not say his fall off was 100% due to USADA testing, I acknowledged there are other factors. I respect your intelligent reply but in my view, there is a significant reduction in mass /strength in the pics I presented, and the the timing of Jake's decline did coincide with enhanced testing. He was competitive in his loses before testing.

He is 1-5 since enhanced testing began, he is smaller, softer, and has not been competitive. He has been KO/TKO in 3 of the 5 losses.

 

[bad seed]

I subscribe to the 9 year rule theory.

Ellenberger started to decline around the 8-9 year mark (his first losing streak), and this was pre-USADA.

that's a really informative article. Deserves it's own thread if one wasn't already made.


also, Cormier reaches his 9 year mark this September.

 

[Rikishii]

Although most people in here attribute this to wear n tear, I believe this is a confidence thing. We’ve seen it happen over n over again, where fighters start losing, and once their confidence waivers, they become a completely different fighter.

Anthony Pettis has spoke about this, but he calls it his “swag”. We saw it happen with barao after the TJ fights. There’s a reason why fighters say this game is 90% mental. Once you lose the “I’m the best in the world” mentality, and start allowing doubt n fear to creep into your head, it’s the beginning of the end unless you find a way to turn it around.

CTE plays a huge factor in this as well. Guys literally go backwards in skill.

 

[Kwik Kick]

Although most people in here attribute this to wear n tear, I believe this is a confidence thing. We’ve seen it happen over n over again, where fighters start losing, and once their confidence waivers, they become a completely different fighter.

Anthony Pettis has spoke about this, but he calls it his “swag”. We saw it happen with barao after the TJ fights. There’s a reason why fighters say this game is 90% mental. Once you lose the “I’m the best in the world” mentality, and start allowing doubt n fear to creep into your head, it’s the beginning of the end unless you find a way to turn it around.

I think that definitely plays a part, too, along with probably physical factors.

 

[Minnja]

I did not say his fall off was 100% due to USADA testing, I acknowledged there are other factors. I respect your intelligent reply but in my view, there is a significant reduction in mass /strength in the pics I presented, and the the timing of Jake's decline did coincide with enhanced testing. He was competitive in his loses before testing.

He is 1-5 since enhanced testing began, he is smaller, softer, and has not been competitive. He has been KO/TKO in 3 of the 5 losses.

I agree he appears to have lost some mass but I don't think it's that extreme. Generally speaking he still physically appears to be in good shape and has retained his general physique although I do think a little smaller. I know it's often a copout when guys lose mass and say it's due to working on "cardio" but I think in his case it might actually play some factor as he did make some major changes in terms of where he trains as well as how he approached his fights once he started losing. And even now when he loses he has moments where he is looking good but similar to the Kampmann fight if he doesn't get the finish his opponent rallies back. IIRC he dropped/wobbled Tarec and Wonderboy and he even looked alright against Gastelum until he seemingly mentally collapsed and got his back taken. All three guys proved to overall be the better fighter that night and I'm not sure even "prime" Jake would have beaten them. I did not actually see the Masvidal or PErry losses when they happened live so I can't talk about those. He had his moments where he tried to be a much more technical fighter like against Rory and it did not work out for him. If USADA is playing a factor I do not think it's the main issue compared to wear and tear as well as a lack of fight IQ/improving his weaknesses.

 

[SteveColdStone]

He looks mentally broken more than anything to me. Combine that with the fact that he is hittable and has a chin that has been cracked multiple times, plus a long career and an extremely tough list of opponents.

 

[mxer31]

Ellenberger has faced some very very good competition as of late, much harder opponents that when he was rising up the UFC

If he was facing fighters like Diego Sanchez, John Howard, Mike Pyle, Sean Pearson now, hed probably also be winning

Give him someone like James Krause, Josh Burkman, Court McGee and see how he does

krause smashes him with ease. hed have a shot at burkman or mcgee though

 

[SteveColdStone]

I agree he appears to have lost some mass but I don't think it's that extreme. Generally speaking he still physically appears to be in good shape and has retained his general physique although I do think a little smaller. I know it's often a copout when guys lose mass and say it's due to working on "cardio" but I think in his case it might actually play some factor as he did make some major changes in terms of where he trains as well as how he approached his fights once he started losing. And even now when he loses he has moments where he is looking good but similar to the Kampmann fight if he doesn't get the finish his opponent rallies back. IIRC he dropped/wobbled Tarec and Wonderboy and he even looked alright against Gastelum until he seemingly mentally collapsed and got his back taken. All three guys proved to overall be the better fighter that night and I'm not sure even "prime" Jake would have beaten them. I did not actually see the Masvidal or PErry losses when they happened live so I can't talk about those. He had his moments where he tried to be a much more technical fighter like against Rory and it did not work out for him. If USADA is playing a factor I do not think it's the main issue compared to wear and tear as well as a lack of fight IQ/improving his weaknesses.

Yes, the Gastelum fight was crazy. He just fell apart there.

 

[eon001]

Gym wars will age you. And some young fighters burn out. Melvin Guillard springs to mine.

 

[europe1]

Ellenberger was also a fighter that relied a lot on his strength, athleticism, and aggression. He didn't really have much technique to fall back on. So when his physical decline started happening, it hit him worse than other fighters.

 

[That209]

He peaked early in his career and has had a lot of fights. He already had a lot of experience when he was finally signed to the UFC. Aldo is the same way. I believe he’s on the decline now. Aldo was a monster as soon as he started at a young age. Same with shogun. Some fighters peak earlier than others. Then you have guys like Hendo who have so much longevity. It wasn’t just hendos body, though, it was his style. He was never the fastest guy. A lot of fast fighters go straight down if they can’t adapt after they lose those reflexes.

Speed is the first thing to go. Hendo relied on good timing and that’s pretty much it. Even at an older age he did so well landing that right hand. Bisping is another good example of a guy who has longevity. His style is part of the reason for it. Some hit their prime much earlier than others and leave it at what is considered not old in the fight game. Everybody’s different, that’s really all there is to it.

 

[Sansnom]

Jake Ellenberger is 2-8 is last 10 fights and has been finished in his last three. I believe he was only around 29 or 30 yrs old when this losing streak started. What generates this sort of decline in a fighter? Is it just wear and tear makes their bodies slower, less reactive in there? Or there chin typically just goes? Or some guys just can't keep their skills at a high enough level?

Ellenberger is an odd case because he was a contender at one point and then just fell off. I know he had a lot of fights pre-UFC, so perhaps he's worn more than most. But I think you see this with some other guys around his age (e.g., Michael Johnson), so just curious what is typically the explanation to this.

It's not about age, it's about mileage.

 

[superpunch]

30 is pretty old for a professional athlete. It's crazy that we see so many 30+ year old guys in MMA. If the sport ever starts attracting higher level athletes and more talent, you won't see that anymore.

 

[Deleted member 385619]

You're using a picture of him hulking out after a win compared to weigh in pics

Here is a weigh in against Diego Sanchez, prior to his losing streak:

Jake's downslide started happening before USADA. Since then he's also spent some time with GOAT Edmund.

I am not saying the guy is for sure 100% clean or anything but to use those pictures is pretty silly. He had 25 professional MMA fights in a 5ish year span BEFORE the UFC. He also was a collegiate wrestler despite having no wrestling experience meaning he did this as an adult. A lot of wear and tear is a better explanation than straight up saying it's all because of USADA. Again, he started losing BEFORE USADA. And how he loses his fights now is typical to how he has always lost them (drops/hurts the other fighter but can't finish then gets dropped/hurt himself, inability to pull the trigger)

EXACTLY

 

[cmw43]

There are obviously a lot of variables; injuries, confidence, head trauma, diminished drive..... but many fighters, including Ellenberger fell off significantly since enhanced testing began. USADA seems to be the consistent factor in nearly all of the fighters whose performance suddenly diminished.

Jakes had 45 fights.

As a comparison Cain was done in 17 fights, GSP has had 28 fights - how do you think he'll be performing in 17 fights time? Stipe has had 21 fights no way he makes it to the 40 fight mark, Fedor started falling off around the 30 fight mark.

Guys can only take so much.

 

[Jon Stark]

Combination of factors but I believe him and Hendricks wer using lots of PEDS pre USADA.

 

[DeformedGravy]

1. The 'Berger has had a lot of fights. Can't get punched/kicked/knee'd forever.

2. Kampmann stole his soul. Dude had him hurt then proceeds to get KO'd, when he was on the doorstep of contention. Never was the same after that fight. Imo, its a lot like Maynard with the 3rd Edgar fight.

3. Training with Edmund. Nuff said.

4. USADA. But I think its the least negative impact on him compared to the top 3.

I think its mental with Jake. Dude had nasty power, I don't know why he doesn't just blitz people. He would certainly have a better record in his slump than he does. His fight with Lawler where he just caved, or where he was shut down by Rory mesmerizing him are prime examples.

 

[Minnja]

Jakes had 45 fights.

As a comparison Cain was done in 17 fights, GSP has had 28 fights - how do you think he'll be performing in 17 fights time? Stipe has had 21 fights no way he makes it to the 40 fight mark, Fedor started falling off around the 30 fight mark.

Guys can only take so much.

Condit is similar- 34 years old and over 40 fights. Last time he was on a strong winning streak was back in 2011/2012. He did look really good against Lawler somewhat recently though. 27 fights before even starting his UFC career.

 

[10mm]

USADA....he looked like hammered shit at the weigh in. His opponent looked fat, happy and bigger.

 

[MassDebater]

In many cases it is a difference in their level of motivation...when one fighter is thinking "I need a paycheck" and the other is thinking "OMG this the biggest moment of my life" it often shows in the result of the fight.