Who has the grappling advantage in Tony vs Khabib?

Who has the better ground game


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Threetrees

He/Him
@plutonium
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Tony Ferguson is a tenth planet blackbelt, with a college wrestling pedigree who has a style that works perfectly in MMA
He has an active highguard, loves to threaten submissions from mission control, and has talked about seeing the guard as a "reverse mount" when he thinks about striking from the bottom
But despite his comfort level off his back, he rarely ever settles there, often to choose to work sweeps, butterfly guard, deep half and wrestling style scrambles to constantly make his opponents work to hold him down.
Lastly even when he's not slowly setting up traps and submissions, he has killer instinct and will jump on the neck when sprawled almost instantly, and will do the same when working to his feet as well. His front headlock series is quick, effectively and creative.

It's worth mentioning that his elbows and upkicks constantly create a maze of offense for his opponents to work through, and will probably be extra dangerous against Khabib who works a lot from tripod (knees off the ground) leaving him a legal target for kicks



On the other side we have Khabib who is a master of sport in Sambo, a blackbelt in Judo, and a godly wrestler as well. I think Khabib's freestyle wrestling tactics are underrated (and underused) and his clinch might be a bit overrated but against Tony who doesn't seem to care much about TDD at all this probably won't matter and I don't expect him to struggle to take Tony down early and often

Khabib has top control that along with Maia is probably the best the sport has ever seen, he can strike effectively while stacking an opponent in guard, but still completely control their hips at the same time - it's wild as fuck to watch. His GnP is ruthless, and fighters visibly break when he starts hitting shots. HIs passing game is amazing as well, and he likes to get to half guard or side control before taking the back and wrist-riding his way to more GnP. He transitions from punching, to passing, to striking better than anyone else in the sport and while he rarely goes for them his submission game is nothing to fuck with


Who has the advantage on the ground in this one?
My gut says Khabib will dominate on the mat early, but if he can't wear Tony down form the top he'll run out of steam over 25 minutes and find himself at a disadvantage. Still though, I think his GnP will be too much and even if he loses late rounds he'll at least win a decision
 
Not sure if serious. Tony has the striking advantage. Khabib has a massive grappling advantage. Tony doesn't want this to be a grappling match.
 
When you try to question Khabib's ground game.

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Position over submission i guess

Khabib
 
Not sure if serious. Tony has the striking advantage. Khabib has a massive grappling advantage. Tony doesn't want this to be a grappling match.
Yet Tony will probably engage him in one and has openly spoken about doing so

So even if you think the answer is obvious (which j agree with if they're fresh) you could just answer. Because you could be wrong.
 
Tony can work from his back but the last guy you want on top of you is Khabib.
 
Look at their record to see whose style "works perfectly"
 
Khabib looked great beating up Johnson and Barboza on the ground. However he could not maintain side control on RDA, who constantly re-guarded. Khabib style depends on the open guard and you can shut down most of his offense in the closed guard. Pat Healy also prevented Khabib from passing or maintaining side control in the first two rounds. If Tony wanted to play just a defensive game he could lock up the closed guard, and use his length to make it difficult for Khabib to get off gnp. I don't see that happening. Tony is too offensively minded and will be giving Khabib opportunities to pass, but will also create scrambles to get back up. I believe Tony has the skills to re-guard, but that will be determined in the fight.
 
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in before snooze fest because Khabib won't be able to hurt Ferg.
 
Khabib looked great beating up Johnson and Barboza on the ground. However he could not maintain side control on RDA, who constantly re-guarded. Khabib style depends on the open guard and you can shut down most of his offense in the closed guard. Pat Healy also prevented Khabib from passing or maintaining side control in the first two rounds. If Tony wanted to play just a defensive game he could lock up the closed guard, and use his length to make it difficult for Khabib to get off gnp. I don't see that happening. Tony is too offensively minded and will be giving Khabib opportunities to pass, but will also create scrambles to get back up. I believe Tony has the skills to re-guard, but that will be determined in the fight.
That's a good point
Do you think Khabib can finish Tony on the mat? And do you think that one guy is likely to tire before the other?

I go back and forth on the second question, I think Khabib can go for a full 25, but I think Tony scrambling and diving on leglocks every 15 seconds could tire anyone out trying to defend that
 
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