Warroom election prediction thread!

[Quipling]

I put together a prediction form so we can make and then compare predictions for the upcoming US election. Predictions must be in by the midnight before election day, EST.

****Submit predictions here***

Check out predictions people have already made here


Only the first two questions are mandatory, but answering all the questions maximizes possible points. Bragging rights to the winner, though I encourage people to use this to make bets in the bet thread. This will close November 8. Edits are possible.

Useful sites

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Nate Silver's forecast. Detailed, adjusts polls based on past error and comparisons to national and internal trends. Illustrates the election in several useful ways.

Also check out the swing-o-matic.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/
if you want to make demographic based predictions.

http://www.270towin.com/2016-election-forecast-predictions/
This is a fun way to predict different paths, using a map instead of TheUpshot's trail method.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html?_r=0
This is the prediction page that the NYT set up after Nate Silver left. It's supposedly pretty solid. They have a paths-to-election tool that calculates electoral votes for you as you check off states in different elections.

http://election.princeton.edu/
This is one of the strongest rival models to 538. Sam Wang uses a broader amount of data (he is updating using early voting info, whereas Nate is building around ongoing polling only). He also makes some pretty different assumptions on how correlated state polling error will be.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2016-president/
I like reading Larry Sabato's analysis ever since I had the good fortune to meet him.

http://cookpolitical.com
Classic political analysis site.

 

[Sycho Sid]

I put together a prediction form so we can make and then compare predictions for the upcoming US election.
Submit predictions here

Only the first two questions are mandatory, but answering all the questions maximizes possible points. Bragging rights to the winner, though I encourage people to use this to make bets in the bet thread. This will close November 8. Edits are possible.

Useful sites
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2016-president/
http://cookpolitical.com
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html?_r=0
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Not that I am voting for him, but there was no option for picking Trump to win.

 

[EL CORINTHIAN]

Not that I am voting for him, but there was no option for picking Trump to win.

Yea me neither......So this is how they rig the polls. Interdasting

 

[Jack V Savage]

I like the idea, but the longer people wait to answer, the better their chances of getting a good score. Might take a while for the thread to take off.

 

[EL CORINTHIAN]

I like the idea, but the longer people wait to answer, the better their chances of getting a good score. Might take a while for the thread to take off.

Yea perhaps it wont take off because there is only one option to choose from.

 

[Quipling]

Yea perhaps it wont take off because there is only one option to choose from.

This has been fixed.

Edit: I shared the doc to a couple people for ideas. One of them accidentally changed some stuff.

 

[Jack V Savage]

This has been fixed. Somebody I shared a draft of the form to was being funny.

Oh, shit. If that was me, it was an accident. Sorry!

 

[Lead]

Google docs gate begins

 

[Fox by the Sea]

said hillary.

 

[AnGrYcRoW]

Google docs gate begins

Waits for Trump to mention this in a stump speech .....

 

[aitkenmike]

Looks fun. Was nicely laid out, and some interesting options. Didn't see the 'predict the margin' option so missed out on that, but i'll just say here that it will be 5.3 and add the points in my head ;-)

 

[Lead]

Waits for Trump to mention this in a stump speech .....

I call for the release of quiplings pms. The security of the docs have obviously been compromised. Russia may have this classified sherdog information now.

 

[AnGrYcRoW]

I call for the release of quiplings pms. The security of the docs have obviously been compromised. Russia may have this classified sherdog information now.

Were any of @Quipling s emails found on Hilarys secret server ?

 

[Quipling]

Were any of @Quipling s emails found on Hilarys secret server ?

No, but I've seen Anthony's Weiner.

 

[Lead]

Were any of @Quipling s emails found on Hilarys secret server ?

Unsure, give me a few months of investigation where I'll condemn but not dub quilling only to later reopen the case right before the climax of this thread.

 

[Quipling]

@ncordless , I clarified the question you asked about.

@Gandhi , you currently are saying Hillary will win, with an electoral margin favoring Trump.

Looks fun. Was nicely laid out, and some interesting options. Didn't see the 'predict the margin' option so missed out on that, but i'll just say here that it will be 5.3 and add the points in my head ;-)

I edited it in.

 

[Gandhi]

@ncordless , I clarified the question you asked about.

@Gandhi , you currently are saying Hillary will win, with an electoral margin favoring Trump.


I edited it in.

Lol did not hit the submit button thanks

 

[kpt018]

Cool idea, I put my picks in.

 

[Cubo de Sangre]

When will @Quipling become blue?

 

[KOQ24]

Both will die of a sudden heart attack.
#forthebetter