War Room OT Discussion v3

Discussion in 'The War Room' started by Fawlty, Nov 24, 2017.

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  1. Fawlty

    Fawlty Legitimate Vice President of the WR

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    It would be nice to read some analysis though. So far, what you've shown us is no more than a second-year math major with very little political science could show us, and yet you seem to be a lot more educated than that.

    It's always strange when people are reticent about their abilities when discussing topics within their apparent expertise.
     
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  2. waiguoren

    waiguoren Silver Belt

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    It's essential that people continue to underestimate me. If they knew my true abilities, they would no longer be willing to bet with me. I must bet to survive.
     
  3. Fawlty

    Fawlty Legitimate Vice President of the WR

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    It's too much affect dude. You have zero reason to be insecure about your intellect. You're 89th percentile, absolutely nothing to be ashamed about.
     
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  4. Fawlty

    Fawlty Legitimate Vice President of the WR

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    Fuck me though, 89th percentile is like a silver medal in the olympics. Really heartbreaking for the recipient, though still commendable.
     
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  5. waiguoren

    waiguoren Silver Belt

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    The SAT score report said 98th (still salty about that TBH), but who keeps track of these things anyway?
     
  6. Fawlty

    Fawlty Legitimate Vice President of the WR

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    Dyslexia is a motherfucker. I leef your naip.
     
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  7. JudoThrowFiasco

    JudoThrowFiasco Charming Quark Platinum Member

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    Jeezus, you phags still bickering about this shit?
     
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  8. Tobacco

    Tobacco --------------------------------------------------

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    I don't even understand what's going on.
     
  9. Jack V Savage

    Jack V Savage Secretary of Keepin' It Real/Nicest Guy on Sherdog

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    What do you mean you "beat him"? Are you running with "there is a 51% chance X will happen" is a solid prediction that X will happen, and so if someone else says "there is a 49% chance X will happen" and X doesn't happen, that's a "win"? Please tell me I'm wrong there because I think that would mean that Fawlty and I both are overestimating you. And you know Silver would never make that mistake.
     
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  10. HomerThompson

    HomerThompson Titanium Belt Platinum Member

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    <{you!}>
     
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  11. Fawlty

    Fawlty Legitimate Vice President of the WR

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    You know what man, I used to have some impressive numbers but then everything inexplicably went to shit. It happens. You've peaked, we all do. Hell, I'd bet that I'm only barely a genius now. Frankly, it's embarrassing. If I'm not rocking high double 9's I feel like I'm letting down the species. It's a burden!







    <Gordonhat>
     
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  12. waiguoren

    waiguoren Silver Belt

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    In what way did everything go to shit for you?
     
  13. Limbo Pete

    Limbo Pete Hot Ham Water

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    This got pretty good imo
     
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  14. Fawlty

    Fawlty Legitimate Vice President of the WR

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    lol just having some fun man. The burden of the smart kid, oh, the burden!

    It's the state of being when being 89th percentile is a horrifying thought. People who can relate will relate. It's hilarious really. Lots of people like that post in the WR, and a lot have questionable social skills.
     
  15. Fawlty

    Fawlty Legitimate Vice President of the WR

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    Right now, somewhere in China, there are 88 people looking up at waiguoren in awe. But not 89.
     
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  16. waiguoren

    waiguoren Silver Belt

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    You lost me a long time ago. I believe I know what you have been trying to do, but the execution has been off just a bit.

    A+ for effort, though, nearing 89th percentile for sure
     
  17. waiguoren

    waiguoren Silver Belt

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    Let Xi be the event that my model's vote discrepancy would be more accurate than Silver's in state i. Let us assume these are independent events.

    According to you,
    P(Xi) <= .5

    Thus P(X1 ∩ X2 ∩ X3) <= .125

    Nevertheless, event X1 ∩ X2 ∩ X3 did occur. This is good Bayesian evidence that my model is superior.

    Further evidence is forthcoming.
     
  18. Fawlty

    Fawlty Legitimate Vice President of the WR

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    The 89th percentile is full of people who think winning three coin flips in a row is evidence of skill.

    Nice notation though.
     
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  19. waiguoren

    waiguoren Silver Belt

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    If anyone here actually understood Bayesian probability, they would mock you for this comment.

    The response from the peanut gallery will be predictable, however.
     
  20. Fawlty

    Fawlty Legitimate Vice President of the WR

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    .5^3=.125

    [​IMG]
     
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