War Room OT Discussion v3

Discussion in 'The War Room' started by Fawlty, Nov 24, 2017.

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  1. Fawlty

    Fawlty radical centrist

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    It would be nice to read some analysis though. So far, what you've shown us is no more than a second-year math major with very little political science could show us, and yet you seem to be a lot more educated than that.

    It's always strange when people are reticent about their abilities when discussing topics within their apparent expertise.
     
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  2. waiguoren

    waiguoren Black Belt

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    It's essential that people continue to underestimate me. If they knew my true abilities, they would no longer be willing to bet with me. I must bet to survive.
     
  3. Fawlty

    Fawlty radical centrist

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    It's too much affect dude. You have zero reason to be insecure about your intellect. You're 89th percentile, absolutely nothing to be ashamed about.
     
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  4. Fawlty

    Fawlty radical centrist

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    Fuck me though, 89th percentile is like a silver medal in the olympics. Really heartbreaking for the recipient, though still commendable.
     
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  5. waiguoren

    waiguoren Black Belt

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    The SAT score report said 98th (still salty about that TBH), but who keeps track of these things anyway?
     
  6. Fawlty

    Fawlty radical centrist

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    Dyslexia is a motherfucker. I leef your naip.
     
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  7. JudoThrowFiasco

    JudoThrowFiasco Charming Quark Platinum Member

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    Jeezus, you phags still bickering about this shit?
     
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  8. Tobacco

    Tobacco --------------------------------------------------

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    I don't even understand what's going on.
     
  9. Jack V Savage

    Jack V Savage Secretary of Keepin' It Real/Nicest Guy on Sherdog

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    What do you mean you "beat him"? Are you running with "there is a 51% chance X will happen" is a solid prediction that X will happen, and so if someone else says "there is a 49% chance X will happen" and X doesn't happen, that's a "win"? Please tell me I'm wrong there because I think that would mean that Fawlty and I both are overestimating you. And you know Silver would never make that mistake.
     
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  10. HomerThompson

    HomerThompson President of the War Room Platinum Member

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    <{you!}>
     
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  11. Fawlty

    Fawlty radical centrist

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    You know what man, I used to have some impressive numbers but then everything inexplicably went to shit. It happens. You've peaked, we all do. Hell, I'd bet that I'm only barely a genius now. Frankly, it's embarrassing. If I'm not rocking high double 9's I feel like I'm letting down the species. It's a burden!







    <Gordonhat>
     
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  12. waiguoren

    waiguoren Black Belt

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    In what way did everything go to shit for you?
     
  13. Limbo Pete

    Limbo Pete Super Samoderator Belt Staff Member Senior Moderator

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    This got pretty good imo
     
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  14. Fawlty

    Fawlty radical centrist

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    lol just having some fun man. The burden of the smart kid, oh, the burden!

    It's the state of being when being 89th percentile is a horrifying thought. People who can relate will relate. It's hilarious really. Lots of people like that post in the WR, and a lot have questionable social skills.
     
  15. Fawlty

    Fawlty radical centrist

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    Right now, somewhere in China, there are 88 people looking up at waiguoren in awe. But not 89.
     
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  16. waiguoren

    waiguoren Black Belt

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    You lost me a long time ago. I believe I know what you have been trying to do, but the execution has been off just a bit.

    A+ for effort, though, nearing 89th percentile for sure
     
  17. waiguoren

    waiguoren Black Belt

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    Let Xi be the event that my model's vote discrepancy would be more accurate than Silver's in state i. Let us assume these are independent events.

    According to you,
    P(Xi) <= .5

    Thus P(X1 ∩ X2 ∩ X3) <= .125

    Nevertheless, event X1 ∩ X2 ∩ X3 did occur. This is good Bayesian evidence that my model is superior.

    Further evidence is forthcoming.
     
  18. Fawlty

    Fawlty radical centrist

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    The 89th percentile is full of people who think winning three coin flips in a row is evidence of skill.

    Nice notation though.
     
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  19. waiguoren

    waiguoren Black Belt

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    If anyone here actually understood Bayesian probability, they would mock you for this comment.

    The response from the peanut gallery will be predictable, however.
     
  20. Fawlty

    Fawlty radical centrist

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    .5^3=.125

    [​IMG]
     
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