War Room OT Discussion v3

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waiguoren said:
If you ever find the balls to challenge me to a mutually agreeable bet, you will discover my true place in the hierarchy.
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"Mutually Agreeable". You're the biggest angle shooter I've ever seen on here.
 
waiguoren said:
Meaning: if he and I ever go head-to-head, he will lose. Only then will he have an opportunity to reach the nexus @senri.
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I've got a sig bet on the Russia investigation, and I'm willing to give you my sig on the same bet for 3 months after the other guy get sit for the first month. But, I won't lose. I hope you don't puss out like usual.

Trump will be removed from office on or before December 31st, 2019. I'm taking the affirmative position.
 
waiguoren said:
By the way, I'm quite sure I would have beaten him regardless. I facepalm when I see people talk Silver up. His election work is little more than poll aggregation + weighting.
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What do you think would be a better basis for predictions? The point isn't to impress with fancy approaches as much as to get stuff right, I think, and I'm not aware of better approaches.

waiguoren said:
Maybe he was some kind of brilliant baseball analyst, but he's nothing special when it comes to politics.
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Silver was solid as a baseball analyst (and made a living playing poker for a while), but his real success came from applying the kind of thinking that (a hardcore base of) baseball fans expect from baseball analysts to the media and politics. Seems backwards, but that's how it is. The state of the two fields are really far apart.
 
waiguoren said:
If you ever find the balls to challenge me to a mutually agreeable bet, you will discover my true place in the hierarchy.
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Tribalistic and arrogant

I like the cut of your jib, duder
 
Jack V Savage said:
What do you think would be a better basis for predictions? The point isn't to impress with fancy approaches as much as to get stuff right, I think, and I'm not aware of better approaches.
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I totally agree. The point is that I facepalm when people tout Silver as a political genius. His work in politics is unremarkable. My bet with @m52nickerson was meant to demonstrate that, but it seems not to have convinced him. I can reliably beat Silver. It was not a one-off.


Jack V Savage said:
Silver was solid as a baseball analyst (and made a living playing poker for a while), but his real success came from applying the kind of thinking that (a hardcore base of) baseball fans expect from baseball analysts to the media and politics. Seems backwards, but that's how it is. The state of the two fields are really far apart.
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What specific works of his on media/politics have you found pathbreaking?
 
waiguoren said:
Meaning: if he and I ever go head-to-head, he will lose. Only then will he have an opportunity to reach the nexus @senri.
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You've tried to bait me before, but there's kind of a problem with that. Both the bets I've made on here since Lead started tracking them have given pretty generous odds against my view. My win condition with Homer was for only 1 indictment, he had the over and neither of us had zero. I offered a freeroll bet to somebody for the 2016 election. I think you'll notice that I don't tie much personal rope to forum bets. No offense to those who do- it's good sport- it's just not something I'm going to get riled up about.
 
waiguoren said:
Removed via impeachment proceedings and a Senate vote?
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Just removed. Impeachment, indictment if Mueller's got the balls, or removal by the 25th amendment. It's before 2020, so I'm obviously not talking about the election.
 
Fawlty said:
You've tried to bait me before, but there's kind of a problem with that. Both the bets I've made on here since Lead started tracking them have given pretty generous odds against my view. My win condition with Homer was for only 1 indictment, he had the over and neither of us had zero. I offered a freeroll bet to somebody for the 2016 election. I think you'll notice that I don't tie much personal rope to forum bets. No offense to those who do- it's good sport- it's just not something I'm going to get riled up about.
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fair response, respect gained.
 
waiguoren said:
If I beat him again in 2020, will you say the same thing? How many times do I have to beat him before you acknowledge I'm just better than him?
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You want to prove your are better then him? You can do that by make a better statistical model. Not just get 4 states closer to the mark. You really just did that by making one prediction that Trump would preform better then the polls predicted.
 
m52nickerson said:
You want to prove your are better then him? You can do that by make a better statistical model. Not just get, what was it 5 states, right.
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How many states do I have to beat/tie him in before it becomes clear to you that my model is better than his?
 
waiguoren said:
How many states do I have to beat/tie him in before it becomes clear to you that my model is better than his?
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When the election comes post your model for the entire election and we will see.
 
waiguoren said:
I totally agree. The point is that I facepalm when people tout Silver as a political genius. His work in politics is unremarkable. My bet with @m52nickerson was meant to demonstrate that, but it seems not to have convinced him. I can reliably beat Silver. It was not a one-off.
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I'm not convinced either. Let's see your model.

waiguoren said:
What specific works of his on media/politics have you found pathbreaking?
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See above. I'm not crediting him with making some kind of huge discovery; I'm crediting him with bringing serious, fact-based analysis from the sports pages to the front page. Most political horserace "analysis" is getting some old, former politician or campaign person to bullshit about the news, often with either partisan motivations or with the idea of making all races look like nail-biters. And there was generally a sense that only "insiders" know what they're talking about here, even though the insiders seem to be just as clueless as everyone else. Silver didn't end that, but he started to change viewer/reader expectations.
 
waiguoren said:
How many states do I have to beat/tie him in before it becomes clear to you that my model is better than his?
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What do you think a good answer to this question is? Not knowing your model, you'd say that the answer is a lot, right? If you want to settle it more quickly, your best bet is a logical explanation of your superiority.
 
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