War Room OT Discussion v2

[JudoThrowFiasco]

Especially when they have that much talent. He won the lottery and set the pile on fire. Damn shame

I wonder how long he has been using and what his levels are naturally? I mean, i understand the temptation of PED's, he has a lot on the line to win and maintain his status in the sport. But to risk that, AND still dive nose first into the recreational drugs -- you have to question the intelligence of the guy.

 

[Lead]

I wonder how long he has been using and what his levels are naturally? I mean, i understand the temptation of PED's, he has a lot on the line to win and maintain his status in the sport. But to risk that, AND still dive nose first into the recreational drugs -- you have to question the intelligence of the guy.

He either isn't that bright or he's impulsive. Either way, he's got a flaw great enough that it's ruined his career. Do we know how long he will be out from this? I would think two years minimum?

Did D.C. respond yet?

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

He either isn't that bright or he's impulsive. Either way, he's got a flaw great enough that it's ruined his career. Do we know how long he will be out from this? I would think two years minimum?

Did D.C. respond yet?

I heard it could be up to five (this is 3rd strike, is it not?)

DC is probably on the phone with every lawyer on the first 2 pages of his google search -- im sure we will hear from him soon. That guy was emotional as hell after the loss, cant imagine how hes feeling now -- irate would be a mild description, i figure.

 

[Jack V Savage]

He either isn't that bright or he's impulsive. Either way, he's got a flaw great enough that it's ruined his career. Do we know how long he will be out from this? I would think two years minimum?

Did D.C. respond yet?

https://www.mmafighting.com/2017/8/...atement-regarding-jon-jones-drug-test-failure

It's funny because what most stands out about Jones the fighter is great, quick decision making. Easily surpassed Fedor as the best in that area. But bad decision making outside the octagon is derailing his career.

 

[kpt018]

Have zero interest in this fight but holy shit, 92 percent of bets are being laid on McGregor

Are people insane or am I missing something -- even with the odds, just seems crazy.

I don't think I've seen a worse line in my life. Mayweather now at -400, how can I NOT bet that?!?

 

[Fawlty]

I don't think I've seen a worse line in my life. Mayweather now at -400, how can I NOT bet that?!?

Lines like this make me doubt my sanity. I can picture, equally vividly, Mayweather doing exactly what he's expected to do, which is make Conor look like a really game but completely inexperienced opponenet, but also picture Conor somehow just steamrolling him via some kind of unprecedented craziness. And then afterward for either result, feeling like I should have seen it coming somehow.

 

[kpt018]

Lines like this make me doubt my sanity. I can picture, equally vividly, Mayweather doing exactly what he's expected to do, which is make Conor look like a really game but completely inexperienced opponenet, but also picture Conor somehow just steamrolling him via some kind of unprecedented craziness. And then afterward for either result, feeling like I should have seen it coming somehow.

Me too! I'm fascinated by this line.

I have a hard time picturing Conor steamroll him, so it would surprise the shit out of me if he does. I just don't think he can land the clean shots on Mayweather like he's done to MMA fighters. He hits hard, but his KOs are also a result of precision. He couldn't put Nate Diaz away in either fight and the guy is a walking punching bag (I know he has a granite chin). There's a bit of mystique to him that I'm not sure is deserved but I will be eating crow if he does shock the world!

 

[Quipling]

How would one go about laying a bet on Mayweather? Asking for a friend.

 

[Jack V Savage]

How would one go about laying a bet on Mayweather? Asking for a friend.

I use Bovada and BetUS. Bovada is way better overall, but BetUS has a way better deposit and cash-out system (they send you a card and then you can just use it to cash out instantly). Note that if you take BU's matching deal, it might obligate you to make a certain amount of bets before you can cash out. I don't advise it unless you're really serious.

 

[Fawlty]

I use Bovada and BetUS. Bovada is way better overall, but BetUS has a way better deposit and cash-out system (they send you a card and then you can just use it to cash out instantly). Note that if you take BU's matching deal, it might obligate you to make a certain amount of bets before you can cash out. I don't advise it unless you're really serious.

I prefer using a brick and mortar book, but was surprised to find it's fully illegal here in MO, even in licensed casinos.

 

[Jack V Savage]

I prefer using a brick and mortar book, but was surprised to find it's fully illegal here in MO, even in licensed casinos.

I've only done that when I was actually in Vegas at the time. If you go at the right times, the live books are pretty cool. The Bellagio is my favorite, though the first time I went, I was surprised at how unsophisticated it was. I'm not aware of any in my area (like you, I assumed it wasn't legal--now maybe I'll look).

 

[Fawlty]

I've only done that when I was actually in Vegas at the time. If you go at the right times, the live books are pretty cool. The Bellagio is my favorite, though the first time I went, I was surprised at how unsophisticated it was. I'm not aware of any in my area (like you, I assumed it wasn't legal--now maybe I'll look).

I actually thought it was legal because there are casinos on the rivers, but turns out no sportsbooks allowed in the state. Gambling laws are so weird. And the lack of sophistication in gambling is kind of staggering across the board. Even some of these very famous online books take positions on events (!) and refuse to lay off their exposure. Pit bosses are highly superstitious, sportsbooks don't always update their lines in real time despite the internet existing. It's a very strange world. I guess superstitious and starry-eyed people are just more attracted to the industry.

My aversion to online betting comes from having half+ of my bankroll seized on two occasions. I got it back eventually, but it was close to a year each time, and I had to forfeit a sickeningly large chunk of cash comps in one case (they only let me redeem a little of it in the form of merchandise), which really pissed me off. No matter how safe it seems, US Attorneys can just end it for us without notice. I won't ever keep more than a small balance online, that's for sure.

 

[Jack V Savage]

I actually thought it was legal because there are casinos on the rivers, but turns out no sportsbooks allowed in the state. Gambling laws are so weird. And the lack of sophistication in gambling is kind of staggering across the board. Even some of these very famous online books take positions on events (!) and refuse to lay off their exposure. Pit bosses are highly superstitious, sportsbooks don't always update their lines in real time despite the internet existing. It's a very strange world. I guess superstitious and starry-eyed people are just more attracted to the industry.

It's surprising. At the Bellagio, I went thinking that there would be all kinds of crazy props, but it was just basic odds. I made moderate bets for all the fights in UFC 146 to add to the fun of the event. Then I asked if they could do a parlay, and the guy said he'd have to ask. So the manager came over, they talk, and he asks me, "is it like a crazy amount?" I said no, just a really small one for fun. He's like, "yeah, OK, fine." Asked me who I had, and then went and calculated the odds. Not what I expected at all. The seats were really comfortable, though, and it was a cool environment (plus free drinks). So overall, not bad.

My aversion to online betting comes from having half+ of my bankroll seized on two occasions. I got it back eventually, but it was close to a year each time, and I had to forfeit a sickeningly large chunk of cash comps in one case (they only let me redeem a little of it in the form of merchandise), which really pissed me off. No matter how safe it seems, US Attorneys can just end it for us without notice. I won't ever keep more than a small balance online, that's for sure.

Damn. I know a guy who abused the shit out of deposit matches (including multiple accounts--guys like him are probably why they have the rules in place for them now) and eventually got busted and had his account seized. Did you do anything like that or was it just from that period in like '06 when they were cracking down?

 

[Fawlty]

It's surprising. At the Bellagio, I went thinking that there would be all kinds of crazy props, but it was just basic odds. I made moderate bets for all the fights in UFC 146 to add to the fun of the event. Then I asked if they could do a parlay, and the guy said he'd have to ask. So the manager came over, they talk, and he asks me, "is it like a crazy amount?" I said no, just a really small one for fun. He's like, "yeah, OK, fine." Asked me who I had, and then went and calculated the odds. Not what I expected at all. The seats were really comfortable, though, and it was a cool environment (plus free drinks). So overall, not bad.



Damn. I know a guy who abused the shit out of deposit matches (including multiple accounts--guys like him are probably why they have the rules in place for them now) and eventually got busted and had his account seized. Did you do anything like that or was it just from that period in like '06 when they were cracking down?

Having to go get the manager for a small parlay is absurd. I hear weird stories from the Bellagio though, so it's not surprising.

I was straight up about the deposits, but there was certainly a short time when you could clear ~$4k a month for a few hours' work a day. That was when the poker/online gambling boom was creating all kinds of competition. Those were good times and I don't blame people for abusing the deposit bonuses. 2006 was a little before the crackdowns- back then I was playing small tournaments on Paradise Poker with an ungodly ROI (80%, compared to just a few years later when a player with a 15% ROI was "crushing.") Paradise closed to US players sometime before the other sites did, so my money got hung up there (I had other jobs at the time so it was not that big a deal). What really smoked me was when Pokerstars closed to the US market in '11 I believe, because I didn't have another job.

 

[Sycho Sid]

I cannot believe I am actually going to watch this fight.

But when I do not have to pay for the fight or the food, I suppose I can suffer through.

 

[computer fogie]

Conor should really be 100 to 1, not 3 to 1. I hope he pulls off a miracle, but logic says it aint gonna happen. Wish I had a huge chunk of cash to put on Mayweather.

 

[Fawlty]

Conor should really be 100 to 1, not 3 to 1. I hope he pulls off a miracle, but logic says it aint gonna happen. Wish I had a huge chunk of cash to put on Mayweather.

I estimate that it's correct to bet 50-60% of one's dedicated bankroll (not savings) at -400 (this is assuming a 90% chance Mayweather wins, which I believe is very conservative).

 

[Denter]

I estimate that it's correct to bet 50-60% of one's dedicated bankroll (not savings) at -400 (this is assuming a 90% chance Mayweather wins, which I believe is very conservative).

I don't know how anyone could bet against Mayweather. The NYT even had a article about how he shouldn't have been cleared to fight.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/24/sports/mcgregor-ufc-boxing.html?_r=0

 

[Sycho Sid]

I estimate that it's correct to bet 50-60% of one's dedicated bankroll (not savings) at -400 (this is assuming a 90% chance Mayweather wins, which I believe is very conservative).

If I were not so cash light at the moment, I would be doing just that.

Insane the odds got so close.

 

[Fawlty]

I don't know how anyone could bet against Mayweather. The NYT even had a article about how he shouldn't have been cleared to fight.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/24/sports/mcgregor-ufc-boxing.html?_r=0

I love this quote:

“As a regulator, I take offense to the fact that we’re approving this fight for fiduciary reasons,” Bennett said. “That’s totally unfair, and it’s simply not true.”


He takes offense to the fact, the fact that isn't fair or true. LOL.