US Homicide Rate at a 51 Year Low

[sub_thug]

Here's a summary of it. Info is in there for you to find the research (and to find other commentary on it):

http://www.economist.com/node/5246700

I think it's deeper than what you're talking about. What if the cops aren't even going to care or are going to actively fuck with you when you reach out? You have incentive not just to be armed but to have associations with others who are and to want a reputation as someone to avoid.

And what kind of accountability do you mean? I'm not advocating letting crimes go unpunished. But telling people, "don't act according to incentives" on any issue is going to work on some people but not the majority. It's not an effective substitute for good policy.

Not saying it is. But on the other hand, the fact that some nuts claim the label isn't the problem of people who are working to make positive change (like this: https://www.joincampaignzero.org/). I think it's clear that we have a lot of people who oppose the actual goals, and try to win political battles by tying the mainstream of the movement to the fringe, and a lot more people who fall for those tactics. If you regard Breitbart as a credible source, and what you know of the movement comes from them, of course you're going to oppose it. But if you're more careful to try to get an accurate picture, you'll probably support it. Either way, the demonization is extremely harmful, IMO, for the reasons I mentioned (building increased trust between communities and cops--the ultimate goal of the movement--decreases crime, and the demonization of BLM has the opposite effect).

To call it an organizational failure is to accept the false premise that it is an organization rather than a grassroots movement. And there have been positive attempts by members of the movement to get a good message out (see the link above), but it gets drowned out by people who are deliberately trying to signal-boost fringe elements.

Thanks for the info. I will be checking it out.

Get to the cause of it. Why are the cops going to fuck with those groups? Why would they ignore the calls? Who are "the cops" in that situation? Are those people a reflection of the community at large? If the police are members or former members of the neighborhood in question, then I am going to have a lot harder time sympathizing with an institutional belief that "police are bad, racist, the problem, etc." The friction and breakdown of trust goes both ways, and it seems like the police are being asked to make a disproportionate amount of concessions relative to the people of the communities where lack of police presence is a central factor to their higher crime rates.

Without dragging Breitbart into this (for a lot of reasons), it's quite obvious that all forms of news media seem to be incentivized into demonizing enemies, both real and imagined. It's about ratings, and flashy headlines grab people's attention. One side wants to demonize the people in poor communities, and the other side wants to demonize the police as though they all look like the picture below. In short, both sides seek to push their beliefs without regard to the reality of the situation.

I'm not saying that it's not a movement right now. What I am saying is that it is a failure of BLM not to organize so that they can control the message, agree on their strategic goals, and achieve an ends. To stay a movement isn't going to help them complete anything.

 

[lifelessheap]

That's still really high. It's like 1.56 here in Canada.

Well, soon you will be enriched to the point of having a nice bump in your murder rate. Your President says tolerance is not the key, but acceptance is the key.

And make sure to never kill a terrorist or they will win.

 

[ripskater]

hullo ripskater!



and that means of course that since there are some cities with low homicides per capita, while there are other cities with higher crimes per capita - yet as you concede, most big cities in the US are blue - you can't correlate the incidence of homicides based on party affiliation alone.

for that, you have to widen the lense that you're viewing the issue through.

you need to ask why is there a higher incidence of murder in red states? a city exists within a state....its not the other way around. its an organ residing within the greater body, ripskater. whether or not the city is liberal or not is immaterial, since all big cities are blue.



its not very foreign if you visit from Gary Indiana, which is just a very short drive from Chicago. Gary is far, far more lethal than Chicago.

i have to go to work, ripskater; i'll close in saying i was talking to a traffic cop today and he said that i'm correct - Red States are far more lethal than Blue States.

i have to go to work, have a very good day!

- IGIT

Lol, Have a good day man.

 

[Jack V Savage]

Get to the cause of it. Why are the cops going to fuck with those groups? Why would they ignore the calls? Who are "the cops" in that situation? Are those people a reflection of the community at large?

Various reasons. Did you read the Ferguson report? Frivolous fining was a big part of the revenue base. In some cases, you have fucked up institutional histories (note how after the 13th Amendment, the South replaced slave labor with prison labor, and arrested people for bullshit crimes regularly).

Without dragging Breitbart into this (for a lot of reasons), it's quite obvious that all forms of news media seem to be incentivized into demonizing enemies, both real and imagined. It's about ratings, and flashy headlines grab people's attention. One side wants to demonize the people in poor communities, and the other side wants to demonize the police as though they all look like the picture below. In short, both sides seek to push their beliefs without regard to the reality of the situation.

What sides are you talking about? The mainstream media is extremely pro-police. There isn't symmetry here. I think you're just assuming that there is some kind of media outlet that's the opposite of Breitbart and equally influential trying to demonize cops rather than observing one.

I'm not saying that it's not a movement right now. What I am saying is that it is a failure of BLM not to organize so that they can control the message, agree on their strategic goals, and achieve an ends. To stay a movement isn't going to help them complete anything.

But I gave an example of that happening. It's just drowned out on the right by voices deliberately trying to tar the movement. Anyway, we're off the subject. My point was that the demonization of BLM is dangerous as it could lead to trends in crime going the other way.

 

[My Spot]

Thats nice, but that just means the gun nuts are stocking up more...

Troll on, homie.
Do you even Pew, bro?

 

[lfd0311]

Surprisingly, though, most Americans are unaware of this fact:



https://mises.org/blog/fbi-us-homicide-rate-51-year-low

So, two questions:

1) Why have murder rates fallen so drastically in America?
2) Why is the public generally unaware of this trend?

(For the record, I know that a lot has been written and speculated about the first question. I am interested to see what people in here think, though.)

https://www.umass.edu/newsoffice/ar...uppressed-improved-emergency-medical-response

People like you never, ever want to address this.

 

[sub_thug]

Various reasons. Did you read the Ferguson report? Frivolous fining was a big part of the revenue base. In some cases, you have fucked up institutional histories (note how after the 13th Amendment, the South replaced slave labor with prison labor, and arrested people for bullshit crimes regularly).

What sides are you talking about? The mainstream media is extremely pro-police. There isn't symmetry here. I think you're just assuming that there is some kind of media outlet that's the opposite of Breitbart and equally influential trying to demonize cops rather than observing one.

But I gave an example of that happening. It's just drowned out on the right by voices deliberately trying to tar the movement. Anyway, we're off the subject. My point was that the demonization of BLM is dangerous as it could lead to trends in crime going the other way.

I'm not saying that the Ferguson PD was perfect by any means, but those riots were not the product of a problematic PD. They were the result of Darren Wilson shooting Michael Brown in a manner that was deemed to be lawful and in accordance with the rules and regulations regarding the use of deadly force by a police officer. Despite several eye witnesses lying in their initial testimony, the mainstream media grabbed the story and ran with it. The White House and Attorney General became involved, and this validated the outraged public who then proceeded to riot. Darren Wilson was not indicted, and the standard for that is extremely low. Generally, it means that if everything that the prosecution says is true, has a crime been committed by the defendant? In this case, that low standard was not met.

I'm not saying there is symmetry, but I don't mean it the way that you seem to. I think that the mainstream media is overwhelmingly opposed to the police. The opportunity to grab a story where a peace officer kills a minority is so tempting because it will launch the careers of the reporters in question that they will jump on anything that they think will work. Of course, in a 24-hour news cycle, speed is more important than accuracy, so cases like Ferguson become national headlines instantly. And how many times has this happened now? It's not like Ferguson was the only one.

I agree that demonization won't help anyone, and again, I think it cuts both ways.

 

[Jack V Savage]

I'm not saying that the Ferguson PD was perfect by any means, but those riots were not the product of a problematic PD.

The incident that got the protests started ("riots" seems overly dramatic considering what happened) was just the fuse. The keg had been built up over time.

I'm not saying there is symmetry, but I don't mean it the way that you seem to. I think that the mainstream media is overwhelmingly opposed to the police.

I don't think we're going to agree on this one. Seems to me that an embarrassing level of hero worship is routinely directed toward cops by the MSM.

I agree that demonization won't help anyone, and again, I think it cuts both ways.

Fair enough on that, though I don't think it's actually happening with regard to cops.

 

[sub_thug]

The incident that got the protests started ("riots" seems overly dramatic considering what happened) was just the fuse. The keg had been built up over time.

I don't think we're going to agree on this one. Seems to me that an embarrassing level of hero worship is routinely directed toward cops by the MSM.

Fair enough on that, though I don't think it's actually happening with regard to cops.

Riots seems like a fair term.

Yes, we will have to agree to disagree.

Our disagree on Point 2 seems to be influencing our inability to see eye-to-eye here.

 

[Jack V Savage]

Riots seems like a fair term.

Yes, we will have to agree to disagree.

Our disagree on Point 2 seems to be influencing our inability to see eye-to-eye here.

That's more than I recall (the pics) so fair enough.

And, yeah, I think cops are often portrayed as heroes who are just volunteering to save the day rather than regular people with jobs.

 

[HunterSdVa29]

the MSM supports cops?

wait, what?
edit: unless we're including network TV, then yes I'd agree there absolutely

 

[Mark Hunts FIST]

Facts: national murder rate is down per 2014.
Awesome

Facts: The overall murder rate in the US's 30-largest cities in 2016 climbed "by double digits,"


Both can be and are true.

 

[Mark Hunts FIST]

Also. For this type or rate. We should be looking more at the past 5-10 years. That gives a clearer picture of the world when thinking of crime rates. The national murder rate has dropped by about a 1.4 points since 2008. Good. We can do better.

With advances in technology that should continue to drop. Not easy killing someone with DNA advances, everything recorderd and phones tracking you. People will think longer and harder knowing they most likely will get caught.

 

[Toastytoy]

http://www.cnn.com/2017/01/02/us/chicago-murder-rate-2016-visual-guide/

Maybe the cities have had increases in homicides for 2016. But maybe outside the cities it's getting better. I don't know.

we are still historically low, but in a like 10 year high

 

[2DUM2TAP]

Well, soon you will be enriched to the point of having a nice bump in your murder rate. Your President says tolerance is not the key, but acceptance is the key.

And make sure to never kill a terrorist or they will win.

I don't have a president.

 

[Jack V Savage]

Facts: national murder rate is down per 2014.
Awesome

Facts: The overall murder rate in the US's 30-largest cities in 2016 climbed "by double digits,"

Both can be and are true.

Yes:

http://www.brennancenter.org/analysis/crime-2016-updated-analysis

Interestingly, overall crime is pretty much flat in those same cities, and violent crime is only up 3.3%. Also, a disproportionate share of the murder increase was in just one city. And rates are still extremely low in those cities by historical standards. So we're not really looking at a national crime wave or even necessarily a negative trend. I think specifically in Chicago, cops need to do a much better job.

 

[Amerikuracana]

Teenagers don't go outside as much.

 

[Possum Jenkins]

you're ignoring the non-white criminality of the time. They were just as bad, if not more, than white crime no matter the time period

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African-American_organized_crime

Blacks commit much higher violent crime rates than whites no matter how far you go

http://www.columbia.edu/~rs328/Homicide.pdf

Your first link gives no indication that black organized crime was "just as bad, if not more, than white crime," just that it existed. If anything, it suggests it was smaller, hence the-

Previously dependent solely on the political and police protection of New York's Five Families, African American gangsters were more able to negotiate with outside criminal organizations and the Cosa Nostra's control over the ghettos began to wane.

And yes, blacks commit more violent crimes because they've always been much poorer, and during Jim Crow had their legit opportunities for upward social mobility all but eliminated.

 

[Gregolian]

Teenagers don't go outside as much.

That may be true but in just the 10 years since I graduated high school kids have gone from shoplifting and MIPs (alcohol or pot) to fucking beating their own parents and shit and participating in these ridiculous crimes that get them charged as an adult when they're 15.

 

[WorldofWarcraft]

Your first link gives no indication that black organized crime was "just as bad, if not more, than white crime," just that it existed. If anything, it suggests it was smaller, hence the-



And yes, blacks commit more violent crimes because they've always been much poorer, and during Jim Crow had their legit opportunities for upward social mobility all but eliminated.

The Appalachians are majority white and also the poorest area in the entire country. Their homicide rates are extremely low when you compare them to the communities with large black populations. Also, the poor whites who have been poor for generations going all the way back to before the civil war do very little violent crime when compared to their black counterparts

The homicide rate for black families with an income of 85k per year is more than double that of white families that have an income of less than 10k per year.

Same goes with Asians. Asians commit murders at less than half the rate of their white counterparts on the same pay scale.