UFN 140 Ponzinibbio vs Magny

I know the correlative stats behind missing weight and winning stats, but i am interested to find out how much this affects calvillo. As polar mentioned, chic fights are far more predictable with less upsets. I hope i am right...i went in too deep lol.
 
OutRun said:
I'm usually a big-time Sasaki shill but I didn't have time to watch tape on Pantoja this week so I stayed away.
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Smart man! No tape no bet! Due diligence ma man!!! Good stuff!
 
MMAOracle said:
chic fights are far more predictable with less upsets. I hope i am right...i went in too deep lol.
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Yeah, at times UFC puts together mismatches to showcase new talent or to boost someone up the ladder (Suarez v Esparza, Andrade v Karolina) if this is the case the underdog won't win a lot. But Calvillo v Botelho is anything but a mismatch. In close fights underdogs win half of the time, aren't they?
This women fight is the thing that I want to see the most from the fightcard. I really want to see if the public was right to have so much trust in Poliana. I am very curious how the fight will look.
 
Kyle Stephens said:
Yeah, at times UFC puts together mismatches to showcase new talent or to boost someone up the ladder (Suarez v Esparza, Andrade v Karolina) if this is the case the underdog won't win a lot. But Calvillo v Botelho is anything but a mismatch. In close fights underdogs win half of the time, aren't they?
This women fight is the thing that I want to see the most from the fightcard. I really want to see if the public was right to have so much trust in Poliana. I am very curious how the fight will look.
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I do agree this is a close match up. The underdog is actually poliana if you look at the opening lines. In addition, calvillo missed her weight and she is on her period. I made an impulsive bet so i hope i am right lol
 
GrantSorenson said:
Are you going to pay for every UFC event and never watch a stream of any fight since its available on PPV? Anyone who watches streams hasnt got the moral high ground here.
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No moral high ground at all. Just irritating when people constantly ask where to find old fights to save literally 10 dollars a month. For the price of a Big Mac value meal you can find literally every UFC fight ever.
 
Kyle Stephens said:
PolarBear, I read the whole thread now. I saw that you are mentioning Botelho a lot of times and seems you are trying to defend your pick a bit too much.
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Not really. I hadn't picked at all before the weigh-ins yesterday, as I thought -165 for Botelho was pretty close to true odds. But Calvillo's physical state makes her one path to victory far less likely.

Oh, and I watched Botelho-Gonzalez, which reassured me of a number of concerns. Of course Calvillo can win, but I put her chances around 20-25%.

Speaking of slightly uncertain bets, should I bet even more Rountree in round 1 at +150? I already put in 2.5 u on him at +145, and again, this is one of the most favorable match-ups he could ask for.
 
PolarBearPaulVarelans said:
Not really. I hadn't picked at all before the weigh-ins yesterday, as I thought -165 for Botelho was pretty close to true odds. But Calvillo's physical state makes her one path to victory far less likely.

Oh, and I watched Botelho-Gonzalez, which reassured me of a number of concerns. Of course Calvillo can win, but I put her chances around 20-25%.

Speaking of slightly uncertain bets, should I bet even more Rountree in round 1 at +150? I already put in 2.5 u on him at +145, and again, this is one of the most favorable match-ups he could ask for.
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My biggest concern would be that Khalil comes out more patiently than usual in this matchup, knowing that he has questionable cardio and is facing a bigger guy. I don’t think an early-to-mid 2nd round KO is out of the question. +150 is a tempting line though.
 
PolarBearPaulVarelans said:
Of course Calvillo can win, but I put her chances around 20-25%.
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Wow!! 20% chances sound to me like it's Botelho's fight to lose in your eyes. If it is like this to you, -165 (1.61 for us in Europe) have GREAT value, because implied probability is 62% of the time Botelho wins, 38% for Cynthia. You said 20-25% for Cynthia so you think 80% Poliana - the real odds of Poliana should be -400 according to your estimation and she isn't nearly close to that right now, so you should drop some serious cash on her.

PolarBearPaulVarelans said:
Speaking of slightly uncertain bets, should I bet even more Rountree in round 1 at +150? I already put in 2.5 u on him at +145, and again, this is one of the most favorable match-ups he could ask for.
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Just bet Khalil by TKO, it's around -125, I don't know why you need slightly better odds and taking a lot more risk. You NEED him to finish inside 5 minutes and you'll be paid some peanuts. Bookies are cheap this odds should be more than +145 for the risk you are taking with this flaky guy.
I think he'll finish him in the 1st but I would want better number than +145.
 
What's great about going big on Lamas is that theres very low chance of an early finish for Elkins but he could possibly take over late so hedging between rounds will be easy if hes getting beaten soundly which he usually is.
 
Bestonian said:
Pantoja is really good. But totally not worth a play at 1.30 odds.
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Pantoja has him beat easy on the feet and is pretty slick on the ground. Only Dustin Ortiz really got the best of him in spots but he was very competitive and had control on the ground for a large portion of the fight. He can escape anything sasaki does I think and sasaki isn't really a ko threat. The question is only whether or not he finishes sasaki
 
MMAOracle said:
I know the correlative stats behind missing weight and winning stats, but i am interested to find out how much this affects calvillo. As polar mentioned, chic fights are far more predictable with less upsets. I hope i am right...i went in too deep lol.
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What in the fuck are you talking about?
 
Big fan of Magny by decision at around +550. I see him tiring Ponzi out the first two rounds and picking him apart the next 3.
 
How's everyone feel about Aldana? I'm nervous, despite the huge movement. My whole night depends on him, almost.
 
Anyone have a strong lean in the Heinisch Mutante fight? thinking about fading Mutante but dont have a good read on Ian. How good is his grappling? his striking looks alright, good enough to crack that chin but Mutante been doin alot of wrestling lately.
 
LiquidNuke said:
How's everyone feel about Aldana? I'm nervous, despite the huge movement. My whole night depends on him, almost.
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in the same boat. Did like his performance vs Kenan Song but man.... hope for the best.
 
ac14+ said:
Anyone have a strong lean in the Heinisch Mutante fight? thinking about fading Mutante but dont have a good read on Ian. How good is his grappling? his striking looks alright, good enough to crack that chin but Mutante been doin alot of wrestling lately.
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Ian's wrestling is solid. Also, two of his teammates, including Anthony Smith, have fought Ferreira and prepared Ian for his style. And Ian has beat two black belts before.

That being said, Ferreria's bjj is solid. takes only one takedown.
 
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