UFN 136 PBP/Discussion

The fight wasn't fixed. You just needed to watch some tape and theory craft the fight to see the bigger picture.

While I saw ways to win for both guys, Hunt losing the way he did wasn't a big surprise -- it was the way I thought he'd lose.

Even though I have seen Oleinik's last 10 fights or more, I went back and watched them again and ended up being confident to go heavy on him this week.
 
Good card. Even a bad card is good for me.

I actually think Arlovski has some good fights left in him as long as he gets to be chemically enhanced. It will roll back the clock 10 years. Can't wait to see him fight in other org's.
 
i think these value bets are draining my bank roll. i might only play dogs that i favor to win outright for a while.

when i'm seeing 60/40 to the fav and wide lines (like with alves as the dog) these kind of bets never come through.
 
The fight wasn't fixed. You just needed to watch some tape and theory craft the fight to see the bigger picture.

While I saw ways to win for both guys, Hunt losing the way he did wasn't a big surprise -- it was the way I thought he'd lose.

Even though I have seen Oleinik's last 10 fights or more, I went back and watched them again and ended up being confident to go heavy on him this week.

Not being salty or anything (well, maybe a tiny bit) but what exactly did you see that made you confident in Oleinik?
 
Not being salty or anything (well, maybe a tiny bit) but what exactly did you see that made you confident in Oleinik?
Hunt

- I didn't expect him to push forward and put a lot of pressure on Oleinik, so Oleinik would be able to work at his own pace.
- He doesn't have any skills in the clinch, aside from an uppercut if he can get the space to throw one.
- He has improved his TDD and get-up game, but when he faces an above average wrestler or grappler, he is fucked.
- During the weigh-ins, he was wearing a fake smile, imo. Something about him looked off, like he didn't care much.


Oleinik

- Big reach advantage, so he'd be able to throw his hooks and overhands and still be able to avoid the counter. He has no punching technique, but his unorthodox punches and the power he carries is what makes him dangerous on the feet.
- I knew that he just needed to clinch with Hunt, then he could either get a single leg TD, or drag him to the ground. Once on the ground, he can maneuver Hunt's body around and make Hunt make a mistake. Paying close attention to how Oleinik gets his subs, you can tell that he doesn't need to be in the perfect position, he can use his strength and technique (mostly his arm strength) to lock in a choke on most people.
- I paid close attention to his fight against Daniel Omielanczuk. DO has a very similar build to Mark Hunt, but he is a much more well-rounded MMA fighter than Hunt. I saw what Oleinik did good and bad in this fight, and where DO excelled in. After seeing both guys, I knew that Hunt wouldn't be able to replicate anything close to what DO did, and Oleinik would have his way with him unless he ran into a counter punch from Hunt while throwing a big overhand punch of his own.
- If you've seen Oleinik fight, you know he goes 100% all of the time. This means he would be closing the distance and clinching a lot with Hunt against the cage, making him work. While Oleinik has shown cardio issues in the past, I wasn't worried too much about his cardio in this fight because he would be the one applying the pressure and making the other guy work, and Hunt would be the one getting tired. In the fight against Omielanczuk, Oleinik got tired as fuck cuz he kept wasting a ton of energy doing what he usually does, but then getting countered + stalled out + reversed + eating punches + DO was able to not take much damage when taken down and was able to get back up (Hunt can't do this against Oleinik).
 
Oleinik hit his unlikely win condition and probably loses that bout 85 times out of 100. Alves and Johnson both deserved the decision in their bouts.
 

It was clearly staph.

Paul Felder mentioned it right away, and then the other commentators tried to cover it up by saying it was checked out and it wasn't staph, and that it was a bug bite.

Felder's voice was like "uh, okay" as he moves away from the topic. I assume they have him a sign to stop talking about it.
 
Hate to say it, but Mark fought terribly on the ground. Credit to Oleinik for rocking him and his grappling is clearly top notch, but I think Mark had staph and was going to show up half dead for the paycheck.

Also, don't worry sherfolk I won most of my losses back watching crappy video games, hahaha. Back to being more careful with my bets and not taking action on wacky ass e-sports.

degen regen.jpg
 
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As mentioned earlier, I went full Wik on this card. Mainly parlays. I was 12/13 on plays with the only loss being on Arlovski. It was a good week to play juiced favs.
 
As mentioned earlier, I went full Wik on this card. Mainly parlays. I was 12/13 on plays with the only loss being on Arlovski. It was a good week to play juiced favs.
Don't even think that was a smart strat when a bunch of the juiced favs definitely didn't earn their odds. Kunchenko, Khabilov, Taisumov and arguably Yan (Yeah, clear win, but that's not what I expect from a -1000) all looked far closer than the odds'd indicate.
 
Don't even think that was a smart strat when a bunch of the juiced favs definitely didn't earn their odds. Kunchenko, Khabilov, Taisumov and arguably Yan (Yeah, clear win, but that's not what I expect from a -1000) all looked far closer than the odds'd indicate.

Oh, I know this. I'm normally a good mixture of dogs and favs depending on the card. This was also a smaller card for me as it was honestly plays mainly for action. It was a good day to go Wik.
 
Ended up being a monster event for me. Made a 2.5u 8-team round robin in 5-leg parlays with the following:

Emeev Dec
Khabilov Dec
Ank -3.5
Tais -3.5
Merab -3.5
Johnson ITD
Arlovski NSC
Hunt ITD

So I hit 6, pushed 1 and missed on Hunt ITD. Pretty pissed given the amount I won since I didn't watch live or would've hedged with Oli Sub for at least $1k profit since Hunt ITD would've won me an additional $5k+. Ended up winning $2,558 or 25.58u though so great times while golfing :).
 
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