UFN 135 - Gaethje vs. Vick - Lincoln, NE

rev0lver said:
Sanders has an excellent grappling game. He manhandled Iuri in a way I haven't seen before.
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Was it about Sanders’ control or Iuri’s bad iq? Commentators argued, that Iuri could have avoided some/most of that damage.
 
Yotsuya said:
Was it about Sanders’ control or Iuri’s bad iq? Commentators argued, that Iuri could have avoided some/most of that damage.
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I watched the fight again. Iuri probably wanted to avoid ending up on his back and was looking for a way to get straight up or sink a sub, but Sanders was too relentless to allow that.

Edit. Until he got caught that is.
 
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I don't know if I agree with the sentiment that Gaethje implementing takedowns would be a smarter way to approach this fight. First he takes a big risk with Vicks guillotine, and does anybody think Gaethje will be able to hold the much bigger man for significant periods of time? No one else has. Gaethje has also said earlier that one of the reasons he don't wrestle is because he don't wanna gas himself out since his style is dependent on outworking and breaking people. Even with Vicks huge weight cut I think his gas tank is better than Gaethjes, sure Gaethje is great at pushing through and keep fighting even while exhausted but with his pace and output he usually slows down early
 
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raketmannen said:
I don't know if implementing takedowns would be the smarter way to approach this fight for Gaethje. First he takes a big risk with Vicks guillotine, and does anybody think Gaethje will be able to hold the much bigger man for significant periods of time? No one else has. Gaethje has also said earlier that one of the reasons he don't wrestle is because he don't wanna gas himself out since his style is dependent on outworking and breaking people. Even with Vicks huge weight cut I think his gas tank is better than Gaethjes, sure Gaethje is great at pushing through and keep fighting even while exhausted but with his pace and output he usually slows down early
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Was thinking the same thing. I guess maybe shooting late to secure rounds? Of course that only matters if the fight goes all 5, which Gaethje never plans on. His rounds are often impossible to score because he deals out and takes so much damage, but then his fights almost never see the cards so trying to seal rounds at even a minimal expense to his gas tank might not be a worthwhile tradeoff.

Even at the presser, Gathje asked Vick "Are you gonna run from me like a little bitch?" So pretty tough to envision him altering his style a whole lot...
 
Yotsuya said:
I watched the fight again. Iuri probably wanted to avoid ending up on his back and was looking for a way to get straight up or sink a sub, but Sanders was too relentless to allow that.

Edit. Until he got caught that is.
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I've also got a sneaking suspicion that Iuri's kind of done. He looked terrible against Perez, Kelleher ran through him, Sanders was running through him and Soto might just have been the only guy more shot than him.
 
Gugabe said:
I've also got a sneaking suspicion that Iuri's kind of done. He looked terrible against Perez, Kelleher ran through him, Sanders was running through him and Soto might just have been the only guy more shot than him.
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I’m not betting against Iuri though at these odds. He’s a tricky gatekeeper and he’s had 6 months off after taking five fights in 16 months.
 
Yotsuya said:
I’m not betting against Iuri though at these odds. He’s a tricky gatekeeper and he’s had 6 months off after taking five fights in 16 months.
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True. I'm not playing what's his name at those odds. I'm just providing context for Sanders beasting him.
 
Man, the more I think about it and now that I've watched some tape, the better I feel about my Gaethje bet. I worry about Vick's knees connecting because Gaethje has a tendency to lower his head in his high guard, but that's really all I'm worried about. Vick does not look good at all when his opponents get inside -- I'd go so far as to say it almost looks like he doesn't even know how to respond in that situation. And regardless of whether or not Gaethje shoots for some TD's, it's going to be his mission to get inside. I'm also skeptical of Vick's grit and I think as the fight goes longer, his chances of winning decrease.

If Gaethje does decide to shoot for TD's, I have no doubt that he'll land some as Vick's TDD is mediocre at best; my question there is will he be able to hold the much bigger man down? Gaethje is pretty much a natural 155er and doesn't cut much weight, but I feel like the size difference could be somewhat offset by his D1 wrestling pedigree. I have 1u on Gaethje +155 but I'm considering adding one more at the current +135 line.
 
ClipYourDirtyWings said:
Man, the more I think about it and now that I've watched some tape, the better I feel about my Gaethje bet. I worry about Vick's knees connecting because Gaethje has a tendency to lower his head in his high guard, but that's really all I'm worried about. Vick does not look good at all when his opponents get inside -- I'd go so far as to say it almost looks like he doesn't even know how to respond in that situation. And regardless of whether or not Gaethje shoots for some TD's, it's going to be his mission to get inside. I'm also skeptical of Vick's grit and I think as the fight goes longer, his chances of winning decrease.

If Gaethje does decide to shoot for TD's, I have no doubt that he'll land some as Vick's TDD is mediocre at best; my question there is will he be able to hold the much bigger man down? Gaethje is pretty much a natural 155er and doesn't cut much weight, but I feel like the size difference could be somewhat offset by his D1 wrestling pedigree. I have 1u on Gaethje +155 but I'm considering adding one more at the current +135 line.
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I need to rewatch, but on the few occasions that Tinaldo managed to close the distance to get inside, didn't Vick grab the plum with those long ass arms pretty easily and turn Trinaldo (getting off the cage) and then just disengage and gain back distance? Vick also is also EASILY the leat likely guy that Gaethje has fought so far in the UFC to get drawn into a brawl. MJ, Eddie, and DP you just knew would take the bait, especially after landing good shots early on in the fight. Vick has straight up been a total asshole to Gaethje calling him the "Homer Simpson of MMA" in reference to that old Simpsons episode where Homer's thick skull lets him win by taking a zillion punches until his opponent keels over from being tired of punching him. Maybe Vick can't avoid the brawl either, but I give him a better chance than anyone else has had.
 
Thinking that gaethje has enough brain cells left to implement a 5rd fight plan is probably foolish

Dont trust his chin at all.

Vick has such a big size and reach advantage. Can gaethje even stay in the range where he can utilize his kicks?

I don’t think gaethje matches up well with vick
 
rev0lver said:
Otherwise just gonna stab Tuck, Sullivan, and Iuri with a mid-sized bet on Gaethje.
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Tuck looked impressive against Gomi totally smashed him. Gomis preparation for that fight was that he dyed his hair. I think the Dober v Tuck fight gonna look the same but this time Dober gona smash Tuck
 
Lol @ Gaethje using a takedown-focused gameplan. Will never happen.
 
streetSub101 said:
Tuck looked impressive against Gomi totally smashed him. Gomis preparation for that fight was that he dyed his hair. I think the Dober v Tuck fight gonna look the same but this time Dober gona smash Tuck
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Dober -200 vs any decent fighter isn't worth it. He loses to low-mid level UFC guys as often as he beats them.
 
Yotsuya said:
I watched the fight again. Iuri probably wanted to avoid ending up on his back and was looking for a way to get straight up or sink a sub, but Sanders was too relentless to allow that.

Edit. Until he got caught that is.
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That's true. Sanders was keeping his pressure without taking much risk. Realistically, he's gonna get a stoppage there 95% of the time too, but the ref kept giving Iuri chances.

I def don't think him losing huge comebacks twice should be ignored though. Not getting caught like that is part of what makes a great fighter. But it feels like this should start his winning streak.
 
rev0lver said:
That's true. Sanders was keeping his pressure without taking much risk. Realistically, he's gonna get a stoppage there 95% of the time too, but the ref kept giving Iuri chances.

I def don't think him losing huge comebacks twice should be ignored though. Not getting caught like that is part of what makes a great fighter. But it feels like this should start his winning streak.
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Was Souk really a huge comeback? Sanders definitely won the first round with aggressive pressure-fighting against the fence, but he wasn't annihilating Souk by any means. Iuri got 10-8'd and should probably have been stopped. Souk was losing, but it was a 10-9 first round in which they both landed some shots. Admittedly I might be misremembering that one since I maxbet the u2.5 @ +130 or something and had a decent amount on Souk KO and was panicking a bit after nothing happened in R1.
 
rev0lver said:
That's true. Sanders was keeping his pressure without taking much risk. Realistically, he's gonna get a stoppage there 95% of the time too, but the ref kept giving Iuri chances.

I def don't think him losing huge comebacks twice should be ignored though. Not getting caught like that is part of what makes a great fighter. But it feels like this should start his winning streak.
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Sanders was a big favourite against Williams, but got a little bit in trouble in that fight too. Williams was really gassed for the second half, but Sanders’ relentlesness was pretty inefficient (headhunting etc.) and he got into dangerous situations. He could have been ko’d in that fight too.

Yahya is a serious veteran, who can punish for mistakes. That’s dangerous against someone who has a one-track-mind like Sanders both for finishes and for stealing rounds. I have half a degen unit on Yaha at 1.9.
 
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Wiktoruspro said:
But he is good parlay material. He will win this fight so why not to bet him?
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‘Good parlay material’ is probably the most ridiculous phrase I hear used.
There is no such thing as ‘good parlay material’. A bet is either good or it’s not regardless of if you put it in a parlay.
 
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