- Joined
- Jul 25, 2017
- Messages
- 2,190
- Reaction score
- 301
Yeah. Only way I see Ellenberger winning this one would be a walk-off KO. Not impossible, but not worth a +400.
UFN 135 - Gaethje vs. Vick - Lincoln, NE
- Thread starter Naught2Sixty
- Start date
- Joined
- Mar 7, 2006
- Messages
- 43,744
- Reaction score
- 2,835
Keep waiting. I think you'll have people using Barb as parlay fodder and the reduced juice will help too. I can't imagine playing Barb at his odds. He's the biggest favorite over Ellenberger since Condit back in 2009.
piglord
Black Belt
- Joined
- Sep 5, 2014
- Messages
- 5,904
- Reaction score
- 321
man fili did land takedowns on bermudez and grinded out lobov. i think johnson could be fucked if he winds up on his back, but will he? i think the lines are about right.
- Joined
- Sep 24, 2007
- Messages
- 51,187
- Reaction score
- 21,198
I wouldn't advocate paying the juice on Barb but Ellenburger is just collecting $ for the last fights on his contract. I don't think he even believes he's winning any of these matchups anymore.
Definitely agree. Sanchez is a very strong fighter who's being downgraded because he dropped to two comeback ko's. He was beating Anthony Smith pretty clearly before getting finished. Was dominating his last fight before getting finished. He has excellent wrestling and a pretty decent standup game. Will definitely be grabbing him as a slight dog.
I think the Dariush fight is a good example of watching MJ against a strong but not Khabib-level grappler. Johnson should have won the fight (all media outlets scored in his favor). The Elkins loss was unfortunate, but it shows that he hasn't given up on anything. He's still very game.
I don't think Fili can outbox him, and I don't think his grappling is strong enough to win on that alone. Fili has a tendency to score takedowns but not do enough with it. His top control game isn't that strong and I can't see him holding MJ down for entire rounds. The fight should be on the feet long enough for MJ to score enough points or a KO
I don't think Fili can outbox him, and I don't think his grappling is strong enough to win on that alone. Fili has a tendency to score takedowns but not do enough with it. His top control game isn't that strong and I can't see him holding MJ down for entire rounds. The fight should be on the feet long enough for MJ to score enough points or a KO
- Joined
- May 16, 2018
- Messages
- 338
- Reaction score
- 0
Steve Stevens tell you that?
- Joined
- Sep 24, 2007
- Messages
- 51,187
- Reaction score
- 21,198
Also have to factor in that MJ has taken SERIOUS damage since the Dariush fight and is probably cutting too much weight to get to 145. He's most likely much physically weaker as he drains himself to make weight too.
I can absolutely see passing in this spot. I cannot see paying ANY juice on MJ. If he ends up the dog...maybe some justification for a play. Until then, no way.
He got knocked out by Gaethje and gnp'd to death by Khabib. Gaethje is the only one to make his chin actually give out, ever. And it was a tko. I really don't think Fili is someone who can put him away like that. MJ is the better striker and still extremely dangerous as we've seen even in his recent losses. He doesn't look like he's on his way out at all. Current odds are a very solid bet for him.
- Joined
- Sep 24, 2007
- Messages
- 51,187
- Reaction score
- 21,198
He took a TON of damage in both losses though is my point. I'm not saying his chin is cracked, I'm saying that damage combined with a weight cut he probably should not be doing makes it VERY questionable whether we see a really good version of him.
Not to mention, he's established that if he gets put in bad spots on the mat, he either isn't capable of surviving them or doesn't have it in him not to just look for a way out.
That is NOT the kind of guy I want to pay juice on. Is it possible he comes out super sharp and picks Fili apart standing? Of course. But no way am I comfortable betting on that as the most likely outcome.
I agree about his energy level with the weight cut. But Fili isn't a guy who puts people in bad spots on the mat. He has takedowns, sure. But like I mentioned, his top control game isn't very strong and he hasn't even pulled a sub in 6 years. It's been a while since we HAVEN'T seen MJ come out looking super sharp, he just hit some adversity that I don't think Fili can match.
- Joined
- Sep 24, 2007
- Messages
- 51,187
- Reaction score
- 21,198
He looked good for a couple minutes vs Khabib yeah. Once he was taken down it was ugly but that's Khabib so no shame in that. Elkins gets tagged by everyone he fights. Not sure if there's any great takeaway there. And he was obv landing a lot on Gaethje...but who doesn't? And MJ was taking hard leg kicks and punches too.
IDK...should ve interesting.
- Joined
- Jun 26, 2018
- Messages
- 689
- Reaction score
- 0
Its so interesting that you goofs are still giving love to MJ, how many times does he have to lose for you to learn your lesson.
MJ lost 5 of his last 6 fights, wow so impressive
MJ 3-7 as a favourite in the UFC, oh lets bet him as a favorite again
MJ's TDD is solid but if you do get him down he's not great at getting back up, white belt on the mat
Bermudez is a legit D1 wrestler with a short stocky build and Fili took him down 4 times, no one has ever scored that many takedowns on Bermudez. MJ's wrestling and TDD isn't on Bermudez's level.
Fili is just hitting is stride right now, he never looked this good as he has in his last two performances, his skills, his physique, its all coming together.
MJ will only look good in the 1st round, after that he'll fall apart, especially when he's got Henry Hooft in his corner to trash his confidence with negative reinforcement. MJ has always been a front runner, a quitter and someone you can't trust.
- Joined
- Nov 19, 2017
- Messages
- 9,851
- Reaction score
- 3,398
Man I know I'm gonna be a broken record here but, I'm convinced MJ/Fili is the ultimate letdown spot whether you're betting it or not. Either "Fuck, why did I trust him?!" Or "Damn, I knew I should have bet on X". Of course, I've been wrong many times, however, this really feels like throwing darts at a board.
- Joined
- May 16, 2018
- Messages
- 338
- Reaction score
- 0
I definitely favor MJ, just not at the current -150. I’d pay a little juice on him — maybe -115, -110 — but ideally I’d like him at evens or close to it. I’ll be waiting for the Fili sub prop to hedge with, too.
- Joined
- May 14, 2018
- Messages
- 223
- Reaction score
- 0
I have not taped Fili and Johnson yet so my opinion will likely change, but I feel like that fight is the most obvious pass fight ever unless someone becomes a significant dog. I will be livebetting as usual of course.
- Joined
- Mar 22, 2006
- Messages
- 4,360
- Reaction score
- 3,318
I concur. Well said. You sometimes come across as an obnoxious punk. But I have to say that the more I read your picks & breakdowns. I must say that you know what you're talking about. Thank you for sharing your opinion. I wish you good fortune on all your future bets & endeavors.
- Joined
- Nov 19, 2017
- Messages
- 9,851
- Reaction score
- 3,398
Don't feed the ego, bro. You'll end up like the Nazi's at the end of Raiders of the Lost Ark.
Statistical history becomes more or less important depending on the matchup. MJ is better on the feet. Fili doesn't do anything on the ground, and wrestlefucking isn't part of his style. He just goes for occasional takedowns. Ignoring that most scored the Bermudez fight against him, it was moreso Fili's grappling defense (pretty solid) that got Bermudez slightly out of his comfort zone. MJ probably won't be looking to play that game.
You mention FIli's last two fights, yet he didn't land a takedown against Lobov until the end of the 2nd round. Lobov was able to get up to his feet after each takedown as well. MJ's pretty much a better version of Lobov in every way.
The only strong striker Fili's beaten is probably Gabriel Benitez. Against other strong strikers (Kattar, Yair) he's struggled. "wins as favorite" and stats like that are much less important than the matchup. I'd be a lot more hesitant if MJ's looked like he's given up, but he's still been bringing it hard.
Last edited:
- Joined
- Jul 25, 2017
- Messages
- 2,190
- Reaction score
- 301
Fili also leans a lot on blast doubles, which MJ's classically been good at defending. It's more the chain-wrestling approach, or unorthodox shots that tend to give Johnson more trouble. I'm also surprised this fight is getting such traction. MJ's going to be a max 2u play for me due to his inconsistency, but I think he's definitely set up for victory in this matchup.
