Im a betting noob and was wondering if anyone had some thoughts on a hypothetical prop bet with prop hedge I've been messing this afternoon for the Bermudez vs Grant fight and if my thinking on implied odds is sound and if it goes with conventional betting wisdom. Looking for critiques of my thought process from more experienced gamblers. Been sticking to mostly ML before this.
Basically the proposed play is Grant DEC +405 hedged by a Bermudez ITD -125(sub is not available) total bet = 1unit.
My initial thoughts when this fight was scheduled for Liverpool were that Grant at ~+200 was good value because of Bermudez lack of athleticism/standup/speed, weak historical competition, and narrow avenue to victory.
Bermudez demonstrated toughness in his UFC debut, he was eating some pretty hard shots and while he got stunned a few times he recovered well. Grant can be a vicious striker when he gets someone against the fence and closes into pocket range but he isnt a KO artist. For these reasons, I think the two outcomes of Bermudez sub and Grant DEC in that order are by far the most likely conclusions. Since I still favor Grants chances a bit more than what the current bookmakers have, my cap for Grant DEC and the bookies odds for ML on Grant are almost identical. But I know that common wisdom is prop bets statistically hit at a far lower rate than ML, and doing a prop bet hedged by ANOTHER prop bet gave me pause. However I in the case of this fight I cant really see a high probability of it going a different way.
So when doing rough calculations of my implied odds of this play, risking total 1u, its basically ~54% I come out even, ~33% I win about 1.25u, and around ~13% I lose 1u. The bookmakers implied odds are 55% I come out even, 20% I win 1.25u, and 25% I lose 1u. The ML on Grant is +195, so implied odds of 34%, so if I bet 1u on that it would be 34% chance to win .67u, or 66% chance to lose 1u.
Basically I am wondering how you look at risk when you are betting on 3 outcomes(because hedge), if you should ever hedge a prop with another prop, if I rely too much on implied odds or am utilizing them incorrectly, or if my math is straight up wrong. I was horrible with math in school and I got into this because I like analyzing fights not cause im good at calculations or probabilities, so if this is all terribly wrong please let me know.