UFN 134 Shogun vs Smith

hey whoever signed up to my betonline link today from finland please can you send me a dm?
 
i feel the same way but considering waiting for the dec line - what do you reckon?
I’m happy taking him straight but you’re prob right about that. I’ll throw a small bet on the dec as well
 
I pay 10 bucks a month to watch fight pass prelims and contender series, the videos are an extra bonus smh, but ya pretty dumb
seriously...fight pass is like the best value available to fight fans and gamblers. Some people just love to complain.
 
Betting on this card is some real degen shit boys let's be honest here
 
Diak has fought better comp than Nasrat, no doubt, but he has also looked very mediocre once his comp level stepped up. He loses to a recently unretired Frankie Perez if Perez stops throwing naked leg kicks giving Diak top position. He had trouble with the uber unathletic Sajewski, got grinded by Klose, and handled quite easily by Hooker. Dude has gotten by being extremely athletic and powerful, but doesn't have many answers for higher level grappling or guys with any semblance of footwork on the feet. Nasrat dominated the stand-up against Held, cuts nice angles and showed some great spawls and tdd in general. I actually think he respected Held's grappling too much in that fight and didn't take enough chances getting back to his feet, but that can be expected as a 22 year old on short notice against a great sub threat. Training at Kings and Tristar (he was thought highly enough by Firas to be in the select group that gets to train with GSP) will continue to show big improvements every time out. I finished tape yesterday and went 3u on Nas +170, which will be my biggest action on the card. Apparently he opened +255 which is completely insane. Oh, and he is definitely the better wrestler, Diak all strength no technique, needs a body lock to have any success. Watch Nas vs Ruslan for his wrestling and GnP footage.

Also hit Anderson +220 1u, Grant +245 1u, Struve +220 .5u, and Damir +160 .5u
 
Shogun is going to murder Anthony Smith.

Who says no?

I think it's going to look like the Thiago Santos fight, just last a while longer.

Smith is not a high level MMA fighter.

Shogun is still very skilled and can crack.

Edit: JK -- Shogun was getting soundly out struck by Corey Anderson in their fight.
 
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Took Shogun at +220, Texeira -180, Tybura -230, Zawada +300, Diakiese -200, Narimani -230, Ledet -120 and Grant +190.
 
Nick Hein should 30-27 Hadzovic, right??
 
I like the thought of a Nick Hein + Shogun/Smith DNGTD parlay
 
Kinda tempted by Zawada for a small bet. Never really rated Roberts as a talent worth watching.
 
Nick Hein is kind of tough to watch. He is low volume, lacks power standing, and hardly utilizes his grappling.
 
Im a betting noob and was wondering if anyone had some thoughts on a hypothetical prop bet with prop hedge I've been messing this afternoon for the Bermudez vs Grant fight and if my thinking on implied odds is sound and if it goes with conventional betting wisdom. Looking for critiques of my thought process from more experienced gamblers. Been sticking to mostly ML before this.

Basically the proposed play is Grant DEC +405 hedged by a Bermudez ITD -125(sub is not available) total bet = 1unit.

My initial thoughts when this fight was scheduled for Liverpool were that Grant at ~+200 was good value because of Bermudez lack of athleticism/standup/speed, weak historical competition, and narrow avenue to victory. However after mulling it over I've started to lean towards Bermudez' funky opportunistic subs being result of bonafide near elite talent in that specific area, he really is incredible at finding these tiny openings and instantly locking in subs with amazing execution, basically I believe there is less luck involved with his style than I previously believed. Still, I favor Grant a bit more than what the current odds indicate, but not enough to comfortably bet the ML. So I got to thinking(usually not great)

Bermudez demonstrated toughness in his UFC debut, he was eating some pretty hard shots and while he got stunned a few times he recovered well. Grant can be a vicious striker when he gets someone against the fence and closes into pocket range but he isnt a KO artist. For these reasons, I think the two outcomes of Bermudez sub and Grant DEC in that order are by far the most likely conclusions. Since I still favor Grants chances a bit more than what the current bookmakers have, my cap for Grant DEC and the bookies odds for ML on Grant are almost identical. But I know that common wisdom is prop bets statistically hit at a far lower rate than ML, and doing a prop bet hedged by ANOTHER prop bet gave me pause. However I in the case of this fight I cant really see a high probability of it going a different way.

So when doing rough calculations of my implied odds of this play, risking total 1u, its basically ~54% I come out even, ~33% I win about 1.25u, and around ~13% I lose 1u. The bookmakers implied odds are 55% I come out even, 20% I win 1.25u, and 25% I lose 1u. The ML on Grant is +195, so implied odds of 34%, so if I bet 1u on that it would be 34% chance to win .67u, or 66% chance to lose 1u.

Basically I am wondering how you look at risk when you are betting on 3 outcomes(because hedge), if you should ever hedge a prop with another prop, if I rely too much on implied odds or am utilizing them incorrectly, or if my math is straight up wrong. I was horrible with math in school and I got into this because I like analyzing fights not cause im good at calculations or probabilities, so if this is all terribly wrong please let me know.
 
Nick Hein should 30-27 Hadzovic, right??

i actually think hadzovic is the much better striker with size and reach on his side, i just wonder if hein will use his judo.
 
Im a betting noob and was wondering if anyone had some thoughts on a hypothetical prop bet with prop hedge I've been messing this afternoon for the Bermudez vs Grant fight and if my thinking on implied odds is sound and if it goes with conventional betting wisdom. Looking for critiques of my thought process from more experienced gamblers. Been sticking to mostly ML before this.

Basically the proposed play is Grant DEC +405 hedged by a Bermudez ITD -125(sub is not available) total bet = 1unit.

My initial thoughts when this fight was scheduled for Liverpool were that Grant at ~+200 was good value because of Bermudez lack of athleticism/standup/speed, weak historical competition, and narrow avenue to victory.

Bermudez demonstrated toughness in his UFC debut, he was eating some pretty hard shots and while he got stunned a few times he recovered well. Grant can be a vicious striker when he gets someone against the fence and closes into pocket range but he isnt a KO artist. For these reasons, I think the two outcomes of Bermudez sub and Grant DEC in that order are by far the most likely conclusions. Since I still favor Grants chances a bit more than what the current bookmakers have, my cap for Grant DEC and the bookies odds for ML on Grant are almost identical. But I know that common wisdom is prop bets statistically hit at a far lower rate than ML, and doing a prop bet hedged by ANOTHER prop bet gave me pause. However I in the case of this fight I cant really see a high probability of it going a different way.

So when doing rough calculations of my implied odds of this play, risking total 1u, its basically ~54% I come out even, ~33% I win about 1.25u, and around ~13% I lose 1u. The bookmakers implied odds are 55% I come out even, 20% I win 1.25u, and 25% I lose 1u. The ML on Grant is +195, so implied odds of 34%, so if I bet 1u on that it would be 34% chance to win .67u, or 66% chance to lose 1u.

Basically I am wondering how you look at risk when you are betting on 3 outcomes(because hedge), if you should ever hedge a prop with another prop, if I rely too much on implied odds or am utilizing them incorrectly, or if my math is straight up wrong. I was horrible with math in school and I got into this because I like analyzing fights not cause im good at calculations or probabilities, so if this is all terribly wrong please let me know.
I've had some success with hedging MLs with unders and props. Not really a fan of double prop hedges tho. Like in your example it would have been easy to be out your entire stake with competent judging.

I've had success with combos like Miocic/U1.5 against Ngannou and Dillashaw/u4.5 against Garbrandt. But I'd rather go with unders due to increased chance of a middle.
 
Nick Hein should 30-27 Hadzovic, right??

Hein can win if he takes this to the mat, but that's a very big IF. I haven't watched tape, but Hein seems too be to inactive at times and relies on his power instead of focusing on setting up his striking IMO.
Hadzovic is a big threat on the feet vs. Hein. Hadzovic should be focusing on his TDD, which is his biggest challenge. Training with Mads Burnell should increase his TDD. We all saw how good Mads Burnell was with his wrestling against Allen both against the fence and blasting power doubles.

Nick Hein has a average fight time of 13:13 with 0.95 TDs/15min and a TD accuracy of 33%. Its not like he's focusing alot on getting the fight to the mat. He's got TDD of 83% though, but this won't be relevant in this matchup. I hope that we'll see a striking match, which will increase Damirs chances of a win. He also has a 4 inch reach advantage. IF this fight is kept standing, then the odds should be alot closer IMO. I have to take a closer look on both fighters, but for now, im into my fellow countryman Damir ;)

EDIT: Hein won't be as big of a threat as Mairbek was (such a talent), and his fights against Marcin Held and Alan Patrick had alot of grappling/wrestling involved. Damirs line is affected by his UFC run, but too much IMO.
 
Took Ledet dec and Tybura dec at 3.45 and 4.15. Ledet tags the head constantly for judges' liking and avoids risks when ahead (=liability in itself, but I like the odds still). Could go for sub or gnp-finish, but I got some ml too. Rakic didn't even flinch when Barossa tagged him few times. Struve's guard is good and points fighting bad and Tybura just lost a fight because of overcommiting in grappling, so I hope a safe approach from him.
 
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Took Ledet dec and Tybura dec at 3.45 and 4.15. Ledet tags the head constantly for judges liking and avoids risks when ahead (=liability in itself, but I like the odds still). Could go for sub or gnp-finish, but I got some ml too. Rakic didn't even flinch when Barossa tagged him few times. Struve's guard is good and points fighting bad and Tybura just lost a fight because of overcommiting in grappling, so I hope a safe approach from him.

I like the Ledet dec bet. He loves pumping the jab and doesn't throw many power punches.
 
As of now, my favorite leans are Shogun/Smith doesnt go the distance
And
Hein/Hadzovic does go the distance.
 
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