UFN 133 PBP/Discussion

Was on Bermudez, Wineland and Scoggins. Tbh Glenn was the value side even if the decision was silly, since Bermudez looked dreadful. Painful night.

Also surprised Elkins didn't shoot a lot more. He was competitive on the feet in a technical sense, just clearly not the same power striker.

Sorry I checked out but I passed out from all the winning after Mendes KOed Jury. Took Barcelos, Scoggins, Elkins, Perez, Reneau, Mendes, Price, Bermudez, Northcutt and JDS. Biggest bets on JDS and Mendes. Tried to get people to take a second look on Brown and Ottow, said Bermudez been on a steady decline(no bet at -275) and said Perez would win a clear 29-28. Only thing I was really wrong about tonight was Reneau at -115 and Perez at -170 though the judges disagree. Yup, still a genius.
Your call was that Brown would get KOd from the bottom whilst cruising towards what was looking like a 20-18 lead? The first KO of its sort in UFC history? Price squeaked out a miracle, he was literally +400 in live pricing at the time. Nothing in that performance suggested the Price wins that more than 25% of the time.

Perez a clear 29-28?

http://mmadecisions.com/decision/9215/Alejandro-Perez-vs-Eddie-Wineland

Literally more people had it 30-27 WL than had it 29-28 Perez.

You're right on Ottow, though.
 
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Your call was that Brown would get KOd from the bottom whilst cruising towards what was looking like a 20-18 lead? Price squeaked out a miracle, he was literally +400 in live pricing at the time. Nothing in that performance suggested the Price wins that more than 25% of the time.

You're right on Ottow, though.

Brown always gets sucked into playing the other fighters game. On the ground Price had the advantage.
 
Nothing in that performance suggested the Price wins that more than 25% of the time.

His fists being powerful enough to KO from the bottom says he probably wins that at least like 33% of the time. Don't think Price was a good bet per se but I also don't think Brown was either. Closing line was likely close to accurate.
 
Brown always gets sucked into playing the other fighters game. On the ground Price had the advantage.
Price's other stints on the ground was giving up back control, having a brief period of ineffectiveness on top of guard, and then losing the rest of that round from the bottom.

His fists being powerful enough to KO from the bottom says he probably wins that at least like 33% of the time. Don't think Price was a good bet per se but I also don't think Brown was either. Closing line was likely close to accurate.
Brown took a few standing shots from Price across the fight. He's Niko Price, not Francis Ngannou. It was a freak position, Brown didn't see the weird jank coming and he got KO'd. It wasn't like he arm-punched him clean out from under mount.
 
Brown always gets sucked into playing the other fighters game. On the ground Price had the advantage.

Also Price is a consistent over-achiever, the kind of guy that wins fights he shouldn't despite not being an elite fighter.
 
Up around $500 across 3 bookies. Main plays were Mendes, Aguilera, and Price. All other bets I made were basically attrition.
 
I had a decent night going 8/13. I was on the wrong side of the Bermudez and Scoggins decisions. Glenn won that fight on body language and selling it to the judges. It's Bermudez's fault too though as he looked depressed after the fight.

Mendes was probably one of the best lines of the year. I have a hard time figuring out what people saw in Jury.
 
I had a decent night going 8/13. I was on the wrong side of the Bermudez and Scoggins decisions. Glenn won that fight on body language and selling it to the judges. It's Bermudez's fault too though as he looked depressed after the fight.

Mendes was probably one of the best lines of the year. I have a hard time figuring out what people saw in Jury.
I got Mendes-Jury to end by KO @ +160 which I liked, also a small sprinkle on Jury KO1 @ +900 juuuust in case. Don't really regret the latter since Mendes did look oddly gunshy, Jury just looked also gunshy.
 
+2u risking 15u and I got back into top-5 in GambleMaster, so not a bad event. I cashed some Marquez split dec karma by betting Perez pretty heavy. He’s good at pleasing judges when facing an opponent who likes to bang, win or lose. That was a bit too close for comfort though.
 
I was able to scratch out a tiny profit after all was said and done.

If Scoggins, Wineland or Brown would have won I would have had a fantastic night (ESPECIALLY SCOGGINS) better than an overall loss, but the Brown and Scoggins losses hurt.

Not really looking forward to the card next week really but we’ll see what the lines look like.
 
Thank goodness for live betting. Ended up with 6u of profit thanks to meh judging on Perez and Glenn and on FDNGTD at like +140 for Brown/Price all live.

Wanna give a s/o to Volk backers. Thought I capped the wrestling pretty well for that fight but Volks pressure, power, cardio, and patience paid the ultimate dividends against a tough opponent in Elkins. The damage is always a live dog though so I'm not too upset taking an L there.
 
Im happy with my betmma results :) I jumped BIG in rankings thanks to this event :)
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I might be giving him too much credit, but pretty sure he didn't actually have 22u on Volk, and definitely not at -121, he's just playing the betmma system. Find it funny the 11u 3 legger includes the 2 squarest favs on the card.
 
I took a beating on this card, even worse than last week. I almost switched to Sage after the weigh-ins since he was bigger than Zak Ottow despite coming up from lightweight. Can't fade Super Sage any more since he's still growing and improving at TAM.
 
I had a decent night going 8/13. I was on the wrong side of the Bermudez and Scoggins decisions. Glenn won that fight on body language and selling it to the judges. It's Bermudez's fault too though as he looked depressed after the fight.

Mendes was probably one of the best lines of the year. I have a hard time figuring out what people saw in Jury.
Loved that Mendes line. Parlayed him with France & JDS too. Great weekend for me.
 
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