UFN 130 - Thompson vs Till - Liverpool

it's not like WB is unhittable. His hands are so low and wide sometimes he struggles to block punches. Late in fights people have had success against him with their boxing technique. Mas round 3, Rory round 3, Twood round 4 (first fight). Twood would have finished WB if he didn't jump on that choke. I think Till has the power to hurt WB and might even have to timing to hit WB coming in. It'll be hard as WB is wayyyyy more defense oriented in southpaw but once he changes to orthodox his tempo drastically changes and he's on the attack. That's Tills window. I still have no idea how to play this fight. I hit the opener and got a play on WB at -145 to win 1u and I might just leave it at that.

I need to rewatch but I don't remember Mas really ever having much success at all. I was actually kinda surprised how easy WB made it look. Same with Rory. I kind of think maybe WB didn't respect those guys power as much as he did Woodley's (esp after Woodley dropped him in their first fight). Till has good power, it will be interesting to see how much respect WB gives him in terms of how willing WB is to exchange from closer than his kicking range.
 
I need to rewatch but I don't remember Mas really ever having much success at all. I was actually kinda surprised how easy WB made it look. Same with Rory. I kind of think maybe WB didn't respect those guys power as much as he did Woodley's (esp after Woodley dropped him in their first fight). Till has good power, it will be interesting to see how much respect WB gives him in terms of how willing WB is to exchange from closer than his kicking range.
Rory and Mas had success but far too late in the fight to make it count. Mostly in the closing minute of the third round. Otherwise WB clowned them.
 
i reckon till gets tooled and moves up to mw after too many brutal cuts.
 
Forgot how much success Masvidal had with leg and bodykick against Wonderboy, recalled this fight being much more one sided than it was
 
Forgot how much success Masvidal had with leg and bodykick against Wonderboy, recalled this fight being much more one sided than it was

Mas landed some nice leg kicks for sure. The problem is he landed like 10 head strikes total or something. And WB landed like 20 every round iirc. I was realy disappointed in Mas as I had a little on him in that fight. While he did have some success with the leg kicks, he just never figured out WB's distance and timing, and I don't think got a round on any judges card.
 
A couple of initial thoughts on Till / Thompson just to start the discussion. Hoping this starts conversation on the below points since I'd really like to hear your guys' input.

Southpaw vs southpaw:

WB is a switch stance fighter. He can fight on either side but 90% of his fights are in southpaw stance. This might be because most of the guys he's fought are orthodox and he prefers to fight closed guard. When WB switches to orthodox, he's a bit more aggressive and throws more but also can get hit more. I'm not quite sure if this is a southpaw/orthodox preference or an open guard/closed guard preference. If it's both and he's best fighting closed guard and southpaw, then it won't be quite comfortable fighting closed guard and orthodox. I'll be very intrigued to see what stance and guard matchup he chooses here.

Distance closing:

In the past couple of years, WB has been most tentative against Woodley. Obviously because Woodley has a lot of power, but I think the other aspect here is that Woodley has that explosive first step and closes the distance. WB's success in the UFC has been due to pinpoint striking and an advantage when it comes to footwork. Not only has WB had the lateral movement advantage (see the first knockdown against Masvidal for a beautiful example of this), but also very clearly in the distance closing. WB can jump in and out so quickly that he can get his stirkes in and not be there for a return counter. Rory and Masvidal were able to tag him a few times but they weren't fast enough to really make him pay.

Though Till doesn't have as quick of a first step as Tyron, Till also is very good at managing distance and moving in and out similar to WB albiet with a less bladed karate style stance. Similar to how Conor pressures to draw out a counter, Till can get in your face, draw out a strike and then take a quick step back before jumping back in to land something. Till's timing has also been good enough to time simultaenous counters, stepping in with an elbow when his opponents come in. Now we're dealing with WB here who is multiple levels better of a striker than Tills previous opponents, but I think Till's distance game will be a bit more difficult to figure out than more stationary targets like Rory and Masvidal. WB will have to be much more careful exploding into the pocket with strikes because the possibilty of it amplifying the power of a Till counter.

Other factors:

Till is 25, Wonderboy is 35. With WB's explosive style, you'd expect him to slow down more with age than say a more grinding style fighter. This doesn't appear to be the case yet since he looked great against Masvidal. But there will be a time when age will be the limiting factor with that style. Maybe Wonderboy is a freak like Romero and can keep the ball rolling until 40, but I think it's more likely WB only has a couple of years left at the highest level. Fight with minimum 10 years age difference favor the younger fighter around 65/35.

Finally, Till will obviously have the hometown advantage whereas WB will be fighting for the first time outside of North America.
 
BTW, if any of you guys haven't seen Amirkhani's profile picture on Tapology yet, you all owe it to yourselves to take a look.
 
Im on the Till train, but its hard to bet against Thompson with his style...
 
Amirkhani did a ton of publicity early last year. He had some big sponsorship deals, did modelling, there was a biography etc. Now he's done next none and he’s hardly spoken to Finnish media. He’s either really focused or he’s lost confidence really bad.
 
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Amirkhani did a ton of publicity early last year. He had some big sponsorship deals, did modelling, there was a biography etc. Now he's done next none and he’s hardly spoken to Finnish media. He’s either really focused or he’s lost confidence really bad.
He will be the underdog for sure
 
I'm going heavy on Till, can't decide if I want to take him at +140 now or wait it out. I'm afraid the scouse fans might mess up the line if I wait
 
Did WB not fight outside the us in any of his kickboxing matches either?
 
I'm going heavy on Till, can't decide if I want to take him at +140 now or wait it out. I'm afraid the scouse fans might mess up the line if I wait
Take it now before UK degens hammer it down.

Fwiw Im drooling at the idea of getting WB at near evens.
 
BTW, if any of you guys haven't seen Amirkhani's profile picture on Tapology yet, you all owe it to yourselves to take a look.
Haha I "know" one of the broads in that pic.

No idea how Amirkhani will look, but not expecting any major improvements. Havent put much thought into the fight yet, but initial thought is that it's a winnable fight for him. Iirc, Knight is quite okay with being on the bottom searching for subs. If he doesnt manage to snatch one, Makwan could just control his way into a decision. Knight around -200 sounds pretty accurate.
 
A couple of initial thoughts on Till / Thompson just to start the discussion. Hoping this starts conversation on the below points since I'd really like to hear your guys' input.

Southpaw vs southpaw:

WB is a switch stance fighter. He can fight on either side but 90% of his fights are in southpaw stance. This might be because most of the guys he's fought are orthodox and he prefers to fight closed guard. When WB switches to orthodox, he's a bit more aggressive and throws more but also can get hit more. I'm not quite sure if this is a southpaw/orthodox preference or an open guard/closed guard preference. If it's both and he's best fighting closed guard and southpaw, then it won't be quite comfortable fighting closed guard and orthodox. I'll be very intrigued to see what stance and guard matchup he chooses here.

Distance closing:

In the past couple of years, WB has been most tentative against Woodley. Obviously because Woodley has a lot of power, but I think the other aspect here is that Woodley has that explosive first step and closes the distance. WB's success in the UFC has been due to pinpoint striking and an advantage when it comes to footwork. Not only has WB had the lateral movement advantage (see the first knockdown against Masvidal for a beautiful example of this), but also very clearly in the distance closing. WB can jump in and out so quickly that he can get his stirkes in and not be there for a return counter. Rory and Masvidal were able to tag him a few times but they weren't fast enough to really make him pay.

Though Till doesn't have as quick of a first step as Tyron, Till also is very good at managing distance and moving in and out similar to WB albiet with a less bladed karate style stance. Similar to how Conor pressures to draw out a counter, Till can get in your face, draw out a strike and then take a quick step back before jumping back in to land something. Till's timing has also been good enough to time simultaenous counters, stepping in with an elbow when his opponents come in. Now we're dealing with WB here who is multiple levels better of a striker than Tills previous opponents, but I think Till's distance game will be a bit more difficult to figure out than more stationary targets like Rory and Masvidal. WB will have to be much more careful exploding into the pocket with strikes because the possibilty of it amplifying the power of a Till counter.

Other factors:

Till is 25, Wonderboy is 35. With WB's explosive style, you'd expect him to slow down more with age than say a more grinding style fighter. This doesn't appear to be the case yet since he looked great against Masvidal. But there will be a time when age will be the limiting factor with that style. Maybe Wonderboy is a freak like Romero and can keep the ball rolling until 40, but I think it's more likely WB only has a couple of years left at the highest level. Fight with minimum 10 years age difference favor the younger fighter around 65/35.

Finally, Till will obviously have the hometown advantage whereas WB will be fighting for the first time outside of North America.

1) Proven vets are doing spectacularly against up-and-comers.
Cub vs Choi
Edgar vs Rodriguez
Knight vs Lamas
Ferguson vs Lee
Comier vs Oezdemir

Age is an overrated factor in the modern UFC.

2) Wonderboy was way more worried about Tyron's wrestling than his "quick first step". Woodley quickly proved that once he was on top of Thompson he would remain on top until the bell separated them. Wonderboy's no idiot, and realized that he couldn't use kicks against somebody with the skills to take him down and keep him there. What I'm hearing by your distance-analysis is that Wonderboy has been fighting people like Till his whole life and we'll see something similar to the Masvidal fight.
 
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