UFN 130 - Thompson vs Till - Liverpool

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Naught2Sixty, May 13, 2018.

  1. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    Hometown fighter, don't be surprised at an early stoppage where Molly is swarming but Gillian isn't really hurt but isn't firing back.
     
  2. DevilsPt2

    DevilsPt2 Minion

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    With the recent line movement, McCann missing weight and you arguing for +2xmoney, I wont get too bold but no I dont thnk Robertson will control her for 2 of 3 rds, not without a body triangle.

    I also generously gave her a slight chance at the RNC.
     
  3. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    Hot Sauce huge pants height edge, liking my +320 more and more!
     
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  4. Tony J

    Tony J Blue Belt

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    Shoes. :)
     
  5. Naught2Sixty

    Naught2Sixty Purple Belt

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    Idk about huge but I'd call that a SPHA. What say you @turbozed ?
     
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  6. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    He's +320. It's huge as far as I'm concerned LOL.
     
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  7. piglord

    piglord Black Belt

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    man looking through till's old instagram shots. harbinger of death on the left.

     
  8. turbozed

    turbozed Red Belt

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    As was mentioned earlier, Hot Sauce has his shoes on and Elias does not. This one was very 50/50 but, since it's not obvious, I would default to NO SPHA.

    I've been slacking on my SPHA analysis the past two cards so thanks for the reminder lol
     
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  9. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    Dude, the shoes don't make up even half that difference imo. Stop trying to replace my HOT sauce with WEAK sauce ha ha.
     
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  10. letmebangbrah

    letmebangbrah Blue Belt

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    What's up with Breese's nipple? That thing is almost tucked under his armpit.
     
  11. greenmouse

    greenmouse White Belt

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    Seen a formerly severly obese guy get that (but even lower) from getting thin and the skin don't catch up.
     
  12. onC

    onC Blue Belt

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    How does this always come to this BS... Once again my biggest bet is on a low level womens fight. Thoroughly confused by the Lansberg - Mazany line; took Lansberg at ~1.9 and kept on adding as the line went up.
     
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  13. turbozed

    turbozed Red Belt

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    I'm riding with you. If Gina somehow outwrestles and (wo)manhandles Lina, I'll be impressed. I just don't see any evidence that it'll happen. Maybe people are putting a lot of stock in the Yanan Wu victory? The follow up question would be: why? Yanan Wu has 9 wins over opponents who have a collective win count of 1. Let that sink in.
     
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  14. starfish01

    starfish01 White Belt

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    Before Wu, the record for the opponents in Mazany's wins comes to 2-7, with 3 of the 4 being 0-2. Her 3rd win was against an opponent with a pro record of 0-2 and an Amateur record of 0-5-1. Her 4th win was against Katie Hawley, who is 2-1 against straweights with no more than 2 fights each and no wins, all in Alaska. I haven't watched tape and don't have a dog in this fight, but just looking over both the fight records and vague recollections of their previous bouts virtually ensures this will be a shitshow. Even so, and with the perils of wiki capping in mind, its hard to see how taking a small stab at Lansberg at plus money isnt a terrible idea.
     
  15. Mcgregorian

    Mcgregorian Green Belt

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    A few I'm on tonight for what its worth:

    Lina
    Meatball
    Kelly DEC
    Taleb DEC
    Bermudez SUB
    Amirkhani (Large bet)
    Allen
    Till (everything i win)
     
  16. onC

    onC Blue Belt

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    Dan "No Mercy" Kelly at +300 already.
     
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  17. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    If Elias was -225 I'd consider a play on him. I do favor him. The line is just way too wide imo for a guy who doesn't care about finishing and who never looks that impressive even in his wins.
     
  18. Endgamesbro

    Endgamesbro White Belt

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    I understand the logic behind wanting to bet Kelly (pressure, grittiness, "fight for your money" etc), but I honestly don't think you could drum up a better gift for Breese. Credit to him for making it this far, but at the end of the day this is likely Kellys last fight, and he is a beaten up 40 year old who looks every bit of it. Lack of speed being the main factor. Not only is Breese a massive individual, he is an extremely skilled technician...he should eat him alive standing.

    There is a great +odds bet to be found in this fight, but its definitely not Kelly ML.

    1u Breese r1 +350
    1u Breese KO +250

    Trevor Smith sucks, but Elias is incapable of finishing a fight. Still, his athletic and cardio edge should net him a signature boring victory.

    2.5u Theodorou dec -165

    Magny-White is a mismatch on Shev-Cachoeira level, easily. White is soooooo bad its not even worth going into all of his weaknesses. For all his faults, Magny is a speedy striker and slick grappler. I expect him to get mount within the first 2 minutes and finish it quickly from there.

    2.5u Magny ITD -160


    I also like Knight and Robertson for reasons you guys already mentioned..Taleb seems to be an overlooked possibility for a leg.
     
  19. timmyclax22

    timmyclax22 Green Belt

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    What time is this in the US (New York)?
     
  20. raketmannen

    raketmannen Brown Belt

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    10:30 AM the fightpass prelims start
     

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