UFN 124 - Stephens vs Choi - St. Louis

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Dec 29, 2017.

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  1. Shoulder

    Shoulder #29 most average paid MMA bettor on Sherdog.

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    Taking Meek with 0.25, I’m sure in the long run taking the guy with a clear road to win and amazing odds is a winning strategy. MMA is too unpredictable and we should get better at finding these spots. I’m aure he could also get dominated, but at 5.50 I’m willing to take a chance.
     
  2. MidgardSerpent

    MidgardSerpent Brown Belt

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    I think odds might be a tad off for Taylor by stoppage, but methinks you're really, really reaching for arguments on why Taylor would win that way somehow because J.J's assumed lack of heart. 2 losses by sub ≠ quitter.

    And Taylor might be built like a fire hydrant and she has a few stoppage by strikes pre-UFC, but she really hasn't shown terribly impressive stopping power in her UFC stint so far. I only skimmed her fight with Penne this morning, but it was like watching Dancing with the Stars, mostly a whole lot of show-punching for the judges.
     
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2018
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  3. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    Well, got starched on the final card of 2017, which brought to close a very lackluster year for me. All told down a negligible amount (about 11u total) but given the time I put in (esp the first half of last year) it was pretty disappointing. First losing MMA year for me since 2013. Cyborg not finishing Holly literally was the difference between being profitable in 2017 and being in the red for me LOL (I did minimize the damage with some live bets of goes distance, but I was so big on Cyborg itd pre fight that I only partially was able to hedge out). The last fight of the year decided it. Reality is I just have so much less time right now for studying and capping, I can't even say I'm surprised my outcomes lately have been sub par.

    Keeping it small starting 2018, and honestly will probably keep it small live betting too (barring some sort of crazy value that pops up). Here's some (limited) thoughts for tonight:

    Choi/Stephens
    Both guys with great chins obviously. Both good counter punchers, and wouldn't be a shock at all if this one never hits the mat. I like Superboy as he's less shopworn. Stephens most likely will look to damage Choi's legs with those hard leg kicks like he did to Gilbert, but Choi is much faster with his overhand counter than Gil was, and can make Stephens pay for throwing too many leg kicks. Given the durability of both guys, I honestly have no idea whether this hits the cards or not. And Choi -5.5 just doesn't add enough value from his ML. -165 to -130 isn't enough for me to budge off just playing Choi straight. Stephens is absolutely good enough to keep it very competitive. But Choi -165 is the play imo.

    PVC/JRC
    Would have bet JRC here at + odds, but it's a pretty even fight imo. WMMA at this level almost impossible to predict, and I'm still stinging from what I thought was the "sure" thing in WMMA (Cyborg finishes people). This one is gonna go to the cards, but -270, meh. Might throw that in a couple very small parlays, but otherwise, pass and wait for LB.

    Usman/Meek
    I'm an Usman Kool-aid drinker, plain and simple. But -660? No. -3.5 at -325? Now THAT I can get behind. It's very hard for me to envision Usman winning this fight but losing a round (or even coming close to losing one). Meek's chance is to catch Kamaru and finish him, and I think that's it. Usman's grappling obviously isn't in question, but his hands have started to catch up. I think he dominates Meek here. Not sure about a finish, but I think this will be a one-sided fight.

    Elkins/MJ
    Should be a big handspeed advantage for MJ obviously. He made weight, I wonder just how draining it was. Elkins very comfortable playing the grinder role. MJ's counter-wrestling a bit underrated though, and assuming he rehydrates well he should be bigger for sure. I read some others saying they like MJ and then just live bet Elkins after rd 1 for a little as a hedge. I kinda like that strategy.

    Honestly, I haven't had time to put in anything nearing enough work on the undercard, so no point in giving anything resembling detailed thoughts. I like Krause/White goes distance at -155 a little. Frevola sub +500 for a tiny flier. Aldana ML and goes distance, Kang itd, Eye ML, Taylor dec, Santiago/Brunell DNGD. All of those super small bets or just added in RR's for fun. I'm not gonna get burned badly on fighters where I watched one or two fights at most to cap them.

    Hope 2018 is a great year for everyone, BOL!
     
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  4. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    I added Stephens/Choi starts rd 3 at -182. I can't see Jeremy getting Choi out of there early as very likely at all. This is a bit of a pseudo-hedge on my Choi play. Both guys durable, I think this has value.
     
  5. turbozed

    turbozed Red Belt

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    The thing is that I think all weight cuts on the UFC level are inherently dangerous. We've seen a lot of times where the fighter says the cut was going well and they were feeling good but then their body shuts down on them. How the body reacts seems pretty random, and I don't think it's justified to blame the fighter for medical reasons that seem completely unpredictable. The fighters already go through hell to cut weight. I just blame the system itself.
     
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  6. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    Wish I did more of that at -111 or whatever it was :(
     
  7. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    I'm easing up on event props this year.. they're just not profitable for me

    But I can't resist some polo-frevola FOTN +800! Frevola is gonna come out swwwwiiinging. So is Santiago

    I love some of the guys from Dana white series. Can't wait for that to return
     
  8. Yotsuya

    Yotsuya Green Belt

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    I regret using the q-word. I just feel that Taylor is the more likely to get a finish than JJ based on their records and attributes.
     
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  9. Sadistics

    Sadistics Green Belt

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    I'd love to see a stat of how often the main event gets FOTN. I've pretty much stopped betting anything other than the ME due to the bias it gets.
     
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  10. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

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    whyyyyyyy do you continue to drink the juice on props like this lol
     
  11. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    IDK. Because I think Usman dominates, but I have no clue if he finishes or wins a decision.
     
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  12. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

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    honestly makes more sense to do w either prop at + odds imo, even if you dont have a very strong lean
     
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  13. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    I don't have a lean at all. I'm literally 50/50 if he finishes or if he wins a lopsided decision. I could just guess I suppose...
     
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  14. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

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    i got screwed w the -5.5 prop w Cyborg when she clearly won a 49-46, at worst. Judges are so inconsistent that it's not worth it, especially w that kind of juice.
     
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  15. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    I lost that bet too. I guess I figure with Usman, if he's losing the striking he can just take Meek down and easily win rounds that way.

    I've also won a lot paying some juice on point spreads, though admittedly I've never tracked those best separately from the rest.
     
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  16. Stunna77

    Stunna77 Purple Belt

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    I am on Kang -3.5 and usman -3.5 as I have similar leans on each fight. Think they both have a chance to 30-26 or worse, as well as grab a finish. Rather not guess on which one happens. I also lost the cyborg prop, but I see zero similarities here as neither will be a strictly striking match where there’s more room for “judges preference”.

    Edit: cyborg clearly won 49-46 or 50-45 fwiw. Not basing future bets off bad judging on past bets tho.
     
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2018
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  17. NinjaCat456

    NinjaCat456 Green Belt

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    I actually never thought about it happening the other way round. A fighter missing weight could present an opportunity to squeeze in a cheeky freeroll bet on the opponent just after the weigh-ins lol. I'm sure the books would get wise to that quickly though.
     
  18. BatBoyJG

    BatBoyJG Brown Belt

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    What time is this starting with the fight cancelations?
     
  19. MidgardSerpent

    MidgardSerpent Brown Belt

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    I don't really understand the way the Aldana line is moving? @-130 now.
     
  20. raketmannen

    raketmannen Brown Belt

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