UFN 124 - Stephens vs Choi - St. Louis | Page 30

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Dec 29, 2017.

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  1. Obsidian Fracture No sunshine when it's on

    Obsidian Fracture
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    Maybe something went wrong last minute, or maybe he came into fight week too heavy. I don't know either way and calling him a flake may well be too harsh on my part.

    When things start getting dangerous during a cut, I think fighters should just try to be close to weight and accept the pay penalty. I also wouldn't mind seeing a person who misses weight not be able to get a win on their record if they beat their opponent. They still get their win bonus but it shows on both guys records as no contest (missed weight). If they lose, they have the loss on their record.
     
    #581
  2. Gugabe Blue Belt

    Gugabe
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    Surprising me that the media's taking Elkins against Johnson. I just don't see it, especially since Johnson looked okay at the weigh-ins.

    If the referee'd pulled Bektic off Elkins in the first, Elkins'd be like a +500 underdog here. Elkins is tough, but it's not like he's taken on an onslaught of massive hitters. Stephens is the only guy with 'good' power that he's gone the distance with. Bektic mauled him, but it was mostly volume rather than massive shots.
     
    #582
  3. Wiktoruspro Blue Belt

    Wiktoruspro
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    I have a weird feeling that meek wina this SO im not touching this at current odds
     
    #583
  4. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
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    Wtf. Meek ko +1858 on Bm. Have to hit.

    Edit: jae beat me to it
     
    #584
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2018
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  5. NinjaCat456 Green Belt

    NinjaCat456
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    I think it was Jim who saying on another thread that this is what happens in Rizin. Makes sense but that would be terrible from a betting perspective.

    I'm sure many of us like to lock some of our bets in well before the weigh-ins. In these instances you would only be able to win your stake back if your fighter wins, and no doubt the bet would stand if you lose. Effectively we'd be getting freerolled by the bookies.
     
    #585
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  6. Gugabe Blue Belt

    Gugabe
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    I think Elkins winning was closer to a 2%
     
    #586
  7. barrygood1 Blue Belt

    barrygood1
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    2018 is gonna be a glorious year.

    Paid the piper by not coming through for my peeps tailing my picks. Am a God fearing Christian, but a dude with a serious Edge over the bookies. Donated a little over a G, but that's ok with me as it went to charity. Might be a blabbermouth at times, but my heart is in the right place. Variance is no myth and even the pro's get hit by it, but you cap for value and you'll be countin' cash when it's all said and done.

    Will always be the target of Sherdog haters, but there's more Barry soldiers so remember to salute the general. Cleared low 6 figures in net profit 2017. Didn't celebrate because the kidd is busting his behind grinding day in day out. No time for anything but studying in the lab and extracting value. Hard work pays off and never thought in a million years I could do this for a living. I beat the odds as 95% of bettors lose money.

    Discipline
    Analyzation
    Bankroll Management
    VALUE

    Barry's UFC Fight Night 124: Stephens vs Choi Free Picks
    Free Pick 1: Kyung Ho Kang Prop Wins Inside Distance +115 1 Unit
    Free Pick 2: Mads Burnell vs Mike Santiago Prop Fight Doesn't Go To Decision -137 2 Units
    Free pick 3: Danielle Taylor Prop Wins By Decision +170 1 Unit
    Free pick 4: Jessica Eye ML -115 1 Unit
    Free Pick 5: Talita Bernardo ML +200 1 Unit
    Free Pick 6: Marco Polo Reyes vs Matt Frevola Prop Fight Won't Start Round 3 -135 2 Units
    Free Pick 7: Alex White ML +145 1 Unit
    Free Pick 8: Kamaru Usman Prop Wins Inside Distance +115 2 Units
    Free Pick 9: Michael Johnson Prop Wins Inside Distance +205 1 Unit
    Free Pick 10: Jessica Clark Prop Wins By Decision +160 2 Units
    Free Pick 11: Jeremy Stephens Prop Points Handicap +5.5 +100 3 Units

    Not a chump who'll leave my compadres tailing on a losing note. Have a gnarly feeling we're gonna clean up my dudes. #barrybrobettors

    needtoimpeach.com

    - Barry
     
    #587
  8. Obsidian Fracture No sunshine when it's on

    Obsidian Fracture
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    My books refund for no contests, so if you had a bet on the guy who missed weight, you could not profit. Your stake is returned if that fighter wins, you lose it if your fighter loses. On the other hand, if you had a bet on the guy who made weight, then you either profit (if they win the fight) or get your money back (if they lose the fight).

    It would definitely make for a clusterfuck betting wise.
     
    #588
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  9. Yotsuya Blue Belt

    Yotsuya
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    Taylor itd at 8.50 feels like a good deal. Even if atom weight sized, she's a power puncher with athletic superiority and Aldrich's both losses are stoppages. Taking on a pillow fisted swarmer is very much a different ball game than facing a powerful counter puncher.
     
    #589
  10. Jamah Green Belt

    Jamah
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    Aldrich has never been ko'd. She lost by DEC against Juliana Lima and got choked out by Moyle. I think that this fight goes to decision more often than not.
     
    #590
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  11. Yotsuya Blue Belt

    Yotsuya
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    She's gotten choked twice as pro. There's a chance, that she's a bit of a quitter. Both losses against really good girls, but still: 7 fights, 2 sub losses. Taylor is athletic, so I think she can make things happen, if she cracks JJ. Dec is most probable outcome, but 8.5 is pretty sweet odds already. I took also Taylor nsc at 2.3.
     
    #591
  12. Rapidryan88 Green Belt

    Rapidryan88
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    “There’s a chance she’s a bit of a quitter” based on what, the two sub losses? Elaborate
     
    #592
  13. Jamah Green Belt

    Jamah
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    She didn't even tap against Moyle, I don't think that she is a quitter at all.
    And her other sub loss was at the TUF House against the grappler beast Tatiana Suarez.
     
    #593
  14. Yotsuya Blue Belt

    Yotsuya
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    She went out? Good to know. Just wikicapping a 0.1u play.
     
    #594
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  15. Yotsuya Blue Belt

    Yotsuya
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    Ok, it’s wmma, so expectations should be lower, but there’s certainly a bigger chance now than if she had 0-1 choke losses.
     
    #595
  16. Rapidryan88 Green Belt

    Rapidryan88
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    Doesn’t mean she’s a quitter at all, as someone pointed out, one of them losses was Suarez who’s a beast.
     
    #596
  17. Yotsuya Blue Belt

    Yotsuya
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    With emphasis on words ”chance” and ”a bit”, I still think there is that chance that she’s a bit prone of losing position, heart ect.
     
    #597
  18. covenant Brown Belt

    covenant
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    i have that feeling about meek, it might be fleeting but im almost certain he flatlines usman.

    the question is am i willing to back up my opionion.
     
    #598
  19. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
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    That'd be some upset, I hope so!

    Just as long as it doesn't go 3! Heh
     
    #599
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  20. Obsidian Fracture No sunshine when it's on

    Obsidian Fracture
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    Straight up blind tailing on Mike Santiago for laughs.

    Blind Tail.jpg

     
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