UFN 123 - Swanson vs Ortega - Fresno, CA

[northsofia]

Can you break it down from your point of view please? I favour Moraes quite a bit of it stays on the feet which I think it should.

Sterling`s wrestling looked very sharp against Barao, i think he can get the fight down at some point

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Can you break it down from your point of view please? I favour Moraes quite a bit of it stays on the feet which I think it should.

How is the tdd of Moraes?

 

[Oblivian]

I'm surprised people are paying that much for Knight. Benitez can give Knight problems standing.

 

[Sham5916910]

I'm surprised people are paying that much for Knight. Benitez can give Knight problems standing.

This. Especially considering Knight is coming off a beatdown and Beni hits hard. Beni has bad tdd tho albeit his get ups are pretty good but he does expose his back which Knight will jump on in an instant. I favour Knight but i can't use him as a leg here.

 

[NorthernLights]

I'm surprised people are paying that much for Knight. Benitez can give Knight problems standing.

Benitez kicks like a mule but I think Knights pressure and pace will be too much for him and Knight has a very clear advantage on the ground. And he has a granite chin on top of that (if the beating Lamas gave him hasn't changed that)

 

[Sham5916910]

Benitez kicks like a mule but I think Knights pressure and pace will be too much for him and Knight has a very clear advantage on the ground. And he has a granite chin on top of that (if the beating Lamas gave him hasn't changed that)

Is it granite? He has eaten a lot of shots but hasn't fought any big punchers. Alers wobbled him pretty bad and we all saw the Lamas fight. Benitez is the hardest hitter he's faced and i think in the UFC at least it's his first southpaw opponent. I can't bet Knight here when he's likely to eat one to take one. Agreed re ground advantage but Benitez has solid get ups but he does give his back getting up so i can see Knight hopping on the back. I try to avoid betting people coming off a KO loss in general too.

 

[vkram]

How is the tdd of Moraes?

Thats a very good question. I'm inclined to say its pretty solid since he trains with the Mark Henry crew and I don't really remember him getting wrestle fucked. Although I'm not too sure, maybe someone who watched him more than me in WSOF can elaborate.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

I like the over in this fight, cant see a finish at all from both sides. Would be wery surprising

 

[Zee's MMA Subscriber]

As soon as I saw Sterling +150 I thought thats a great bet but then I asked myself, what if Moraes was +150?

The thing about this fight is, it's going to be close, it has split decision written all over it. Sterling looks better everytime we see him, his striking has come a long way, I like the pace and striking output he's been bringing lately.

I'm not really sure what a win over Barao in 2017 means, the guy is clearly not what he used to be. Sterling clearly won that fight and he even managed to takedown Barao who as been impossible to TD in the past. Sterling was actually taken down himself in this fight early in the 1st round. Barao was then able to hold Sterling down for the rest of the round which I really didn't like, Sterling didn't even come close to getting up. Moraes is also known for working in his own TD's.

I've bet Moraes in both his UFC fights but there's no way I touch his price here. I'm assuming Moraes will have the edge on the feet here but Sterling will be competitive. If Sterling can mix in TD's then thats where it gets really interesting. Moraes kicks a lot and Dodson was able to catch his kicks and take him down twice. Although Moraes immediately scrambled back to his feet when he was taken down. If a 125er like Dodson, who is not know for his wrestling can get Moraes down, then Sterling probably can as well, holding him down is a different question.

So goodluck who ever is betting this, I think Sterling +150 is a decent bet, it's clearly dog or pass. I think I'm passing but Sterling is still tempting.

 

[t6p]

This is like a 10th time he broke it right? High probability of it happening again if he goes to war with Ortega

Yes sir, and I agree.

 

[iGnP]

ok no matter what i have to stab Ortega rd 3. It's kinda awesome how he keeps getting them

 

[rille31]

ok no matter what i have to stab Ortega rd 3. It's kinda awesome how he keeps getting them

what if that streak comes from him always finishing in the last round?

 

[BatBoyJG]

Bet Ortega at +135 I really really like him here. I see Cub starting fast, but starting to slow down in the later rounds (That or getting a little sloppy he is a risk taker) And Ortega catching him and finishing sub or tko. Bet 2.25u on him.

I like Knight more than some people here in the thread, just don't see Benitez actually being able to fight well under Knight's pressure.

Will probably bet Holtzman. His fight with Emmett impressed me I think he is just better than Horcher and at a pickem I think it's a good bet.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Im waiting for odds on Luke Sanders, Alex Perez and Trevin Giles

 

[BatBoyJG]

Braga Neto coming off a 42 month layoff to fight Giles.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Rewatched Andre vs Perez.. what a fuckin robbery. Andre won this shit.
Perez isnt anything special, Im curious of odds

 

[stretcharmstrong]

Rewatched Andre vs Perez.. what a fuckin robbery. Andre won this shit.
Perez isnt anything special, Im curious of odds

What are you trying to say? I’m confused.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

What are you trying to say? I’m confused.

Andre vs droping Perez with jabs, he sliped on the mat in r2. Perez won r3 but in my opinion he was behind 2 rounds. Andre was in control the whole time

 

[Zee's MMA Subscriber]

Braga Neto coming off a 42 month layoff to fight Giles.

Yeah interesting, but the guy is only 30 years old and has wins over Cezar Ferreira, Brock Larson, Maiquel Falcao, Anthony Smith. He's also a former BJJ world champion

Giles looked good smashing that jobber in his debut but his level of competition is poor and he went to a split with Ryan Spann

Just read this interview Neto did with MMAfighting in July, said he weighs 247 pounds. The interview gives a lot of insight as to why he's been out so long https://www.mmafighting.com/2017/7/...ight-three-years-later-antonio-braga-neto-ufc

Neto has been at KingsMMA for his camp too

So many unknowns, impossible to be confident either way but I'm pretty sure I know who the favourite will be

 

[NorthernLights]

Is it granite? He has eaten a lot of shots but hasn't fought any big punchers. Alers wobbled him pretty bad and we all saw the Lamas fight. Benitez is the hardest hitter he's faced and i think in the UFC at least it's his first southpaw opponent. I can't bet Knight here when he's likely to eat one to take one. Agreed re ground advantage but Benitez has solid get ups but he does give his back getting up so i can see Knight hopping on the back. I try to avoid betting people coming off a KO loss in general too.

Granite heart then? Lamas had to put him through hell to get him out of there and he absorbed a LOT of hard, clean headstrikes before he hit the ground (and that was after shooting for a takedown, not because Lamas dropped him). I think he either wins a decision on volume and aggression or submits Benitez at some point but I get your points about Moggly, I might be underestimating him here.