UFN 121 - Werdum vs Tybura - Australia

[Gugabe]

Not saying Elias KO's a lock by any means, but I'm hoping the books have a similar view on its unlikelihood and it being worth a flyer. Elias is also a guy who probably won't gas down the stretch, which has classically been Kelly's chief method of getting wins.

 

[SBJJ]

How can anyone bet Means at this price?

He barely beat Garcia who seemed Tailor made for him.

I honestly think Means gets juiced because In a few of his wins it's been in devastating fashion. But he can just as easily stink it up in the cage

 

[Papi]

Elias ain't KO'ing shit

Everyone thought the same thing about guida

 

[TheOneTrueKing]

Meh, nothing special. Would love to bet Volkanovski but to me it's just not worth it betting 6:1 favourites. Less than a unit return on a 5u max bet. I'm just watching to see if there's a lot of value on the under.



Lol didn't know this existed, will watch.

always worth it if there is value. i find value in a big fav far more useful as you can bet them much bigger than a dog even with a smaller edge. dogs for show chalk for dough.

 

[onC]

Everyone thought the same thing about guida

Guida just lacks the ability to KO people, but Theodorou doesnt even go for it.

 

[vkram]

Kelly has been knocked out by arguably the best first round finisher in the division, Elias is far from that. His path to a knock out is most likely an accumulation of strikes if/when Kelly gets tired but Kelly hasn't really gassed badly from what I remember. I think the price for Elias by T/KO needs to be close to or over +1000 to be a play.

 

[Sham5916910]

How can anyone bet Means at this price?

He barely beat Garcia who seemed Tailor made for him.

I honestly think Means gets juiced because In a few of his wins it's been in devastating fashion. But he can just as easily stink it up in the cage

He had to worry about garcias explosive takedowns and garcia rang his bell in r1 too guy has big power. I think stylistically belal is a better fight for him.

 

[Joseph Budden]

29-28 vs Alex Garcia is Means best win

Lol @ anyone betting him -300

 

[Stunna77]

Kelly has been knocked out by arguably the best first round finisher in the division, Elias is far from that. His path to a knock out is most likely an accumulation of strikes if/when Kelly gets tired but Kelly hasn't really gassed badly from what I remember. I think the price for Elias by T/KO needs to be close to or over +1000 to be a play.

If it was priced that high I may have to take a stab since my over play is so heavy. Don't see any other realistic way this ends ITD besides injury. But I agree Alvey and Brunson are massive punchers. Theo has KO'd guys from top position only iirc. I don't see him having much success getting Kelly to the mat. He will more than likely just use his speed advantage and stay at range throwing jabs and kicks.

 

[Sham5916910]

29-28 vs Alex Garcia is Means best win

Lol @ anyone betting him -300

Not bet means at this stage but defo strongly considering it now u have guaranteed a means victory

 

[t6p]

I initially liked Means a lot here and I hit his opener for 5u (somewhat playing the movement, I never intended to leave it all). But now that I've watched tape on both guys and Belal is at +220, I switched sides and I'm left with 0.5u Belal +378.

I feel like Means has mainly feasted on lower level competition. Belal is no world beater but I think he’s still improving, he’s got great cardio and he can grind. Belal did get dropped multiple times by Jouban, but he recovered and came back strong. He's just a gritty fighter, unless you knock him old cold like Luque did he won't quit.

I'm not putting much stock in this, but Means also did have the USADA issue and he hasn't exactly looked great since.

Means is the rightful favorite and he’s much more likely to finish, but I think this ends in a hard fought 29-28 decision a good percentage of the time. Means -150 or so is more realistic IMO.

 

[BatBoyJG]

I will watch tape tomorrow or Wednesday, but upon 1st look Belal +190, major play alert cosmic value possible will confirm this coming week.

Cosmic value confirmed 3u at +220 this is absurd. I think Means should honestly barley be a favorite.

Been on a roll with these value plays. I feel pretty solid on this one.

Fade or follow I might expand on my thoughts later in the week.

 

[Sham5916910]

Hmm seems like i need to watch Means tape.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

I like the over in this fight
For me its ,,over1.5r" or dog

 

[Sadistics]

Cosmic value confirmed 3u at +220 this is absurd. I think Means should honestly barley be a favorite.

Been on a roll with these value plays. I feel pretty solid on this one.

Fade or follow I might expand on my thoughts later in the week.

You and t6p must be seeing something I'm not. Where does Belal hold an advantage? You expecting him to win a decision on volume?

 

[raketmannen]

I like the over in this fight
For me its ,,over1.5r" or dog

Got the over 1.5 -182 2.5u will be my only play for this fight unless there's any value props

 

[Stunna77]

@t6p @Sadistics @BatBoyJG

Can we all agree if belal wins it will be a dec? Any chance he finishes?

 

[Sadistics]

@t6p @Sadistics @BatBoyJG

Can we all agree if belal wins it will be a dec? Any chance he finishes?

100%. If you're a hedging man that'd be the way to do it

 

[Naterade]

How can anyone bet Means at this price?

He barely beat Garcia who seemed Tailor made for him.

I honestly think Means gets juiced because In a few of his wins it's been in devastating fashion. But he can just as easily stink it up in the cage

'Barely' is a bit of a stretch, clear win for Means and was thoroughly picking him apart a lot of the time. Garcia has also improved alot the last 2 years, especially his cardio...very dangerous guy for anyone at 170

I agree there is way too much juice on him here but Means is a really bad matchup for Belal...his wrestling will be nullified and then hes left with leg kicks and decent boxing. Means should have the advantage everywhere and can see him getting a pretty easy decision here

 

[thewiggo]

Means will box Belal to a decision in this one I think