UFN 121 - Werdum vs Tybura - Australia

[rev0lver]

So I get Mokhtarian is terrible, only has a left leg/body kick and some poor grinding abilities, but I can't trust Benoit. He could easily be 0-5 in the UFC. He's a headhunter that isn't willing to switch it up if he's behind, has never definitively won a round. That style just doesn't work at flyweight.

He has decent wrestling abilities but seems like he has low fight IQ. Taken down 5 times by both Moreno and Serrano. Kept going for the guillotine when Serrano would shoot which ended up with him getting slammed repeatedly. To his credit that fight was on 10 days notice. He's only landed 1 TD himself, against Pettis who was able to sweep him.

Benoit moved to Vegas to work with Lundell, says he's fully dedicated now, separated from his family, the best shape and most prepared he's ever been, but I still can't lay the -235 on him.

Mokhtarian has a padded af record, terrible fight IQ, doesn't really show anything. Benoit -235 is honestly a gift. I wouldn't bet Benoit against almost anyone unless it was a small dog bet, but he's easily a class above here.

 

[Gugabe]

Mokhtarian has a padded af record, terrible fight IQ, doesn't really show anything. Benoit -235 is honestly a gift. I wouldn't bet Benoit against almost anyone unless it was a small dog bet, but he's easily a class above here.

Yeah. Mokh's a wrestlegrinder from Australia, which is not a good thing to be since Australian wrestling is terrible.

 

[thewiggo]

There is 0 value in Lausa. You're throwing money away

While I generally don't put money on -300 or higher, I also think you need to take easy opportunities when you see one, and this is one. You wouldn't deny a -600 Cain Velasquez against CM Punk just because CM Punk has odds.

0 value is just ridiculous, I get that Shelton is likely to win but his path to victory is wrestling, and if he either decides not to play on that or Jenel has dedicated a chunk of his camp towards tdd then it will be closer and therefore have value

 

[Wiktoruspro]

 

[rev0lver]

0 value is just ridiculous, I get that Shelton is likely to win but his path to victory is wrestling, and if he either decides not to play on that or Jenel has dedicated a chunk of his camp towards tdd then it will be closer and therefore have value

Shelton has potential to be a top 15 FLW, at the least. He put Tim Elliot in trouble on the mat multiple times. Not to mention he his standup is probably better than Lausa's. Lausa's only path to win is probably a KO, with 1 KO on his record against a fighter who's never been finished. This is a gimme fight for Shelton to get him going

 

[Caicara]

Shelton's price is unjustifiable. I favor him, but surely not at these odds.

Stabbing Lausa DEC / fight goes the distance / split dec if possible.

Big on fight goes the distance.

 

[BigNick100]

Mokhtarian has a padded af record, terrible fight IQ, doesn't really show anything. Benoit -235 is honestly a gift. I wouldn't bet Benoit against almost anyone unless it was a small dog bet, but he's easily a class above here.

%100 agree here

 

[Gugabe]

I'm really tempted by the Chambers dog play. We literally haven't seen Kassem under any adversity in her career, and she's training out of the same gym as Mokhtarian so I don't think she's getting great coaching.

 

[Stunna77]

Chambers is 39 and coming off a 2-year layoff fwiw. She will also likely be at a massive size disadvantage. Weird fight and very low level.

 

[wack3d]

man i want to fade Camacho his cardio looked horrible in his last fight at 170 guess it will be even worse now at 155 =/ too bad he is facing Brown hard to trust your money on that guy

 

[turbozed]

man i want to fade Camacho his cardio looked horrible in his last fight at 170 guess it will be even worse now at 155 =/ too bad he is facing Brown hard to trust your money on that guy

I thought that Camacho had very short notice for his fight with Jingliang?

 

[Gugabe]

Chambers is 39 and coming off a 2-year layoff fwiw. She will also likely be at a massive size disadvantage. Weird fight and very low level.

Classic dog or pass, IMO. Chambers has atleast been training at ATT, and I'd take random WMMA-prospects from there over Kassem.

 

[wack3d]

I thought that Camacho had very short notice for his fight with Jingliang?

ahh ya just looked and it seems like it was on 10 days notice or something like that.. he looked very solid in R1 so he might actually be worth a bet here i guess if he looks good at the weigh-ins

 

[wack3d]

tough card to bet on so many low level fights and unproven fighters

 

[betrayedlurker]

tough card to bet on so many low level fights and unproven fighters

Agreed dogg. Struggling for bets here. Bum card.

 

[Card]

Hometown Fighters:
- Rawlings and Clark
- Matthews
- Kelly
- Volkanovski and Young
- Mokhtarian
- Brown
- Kassem and Chambers
- Tuivasa

Short Notice:
- Fabrício Werdum (in for Mark Hunt) vs. Marcin Tybura [5 weeks]
- Tim Means (in for Jesse Taylor) vs. Belal Muhammad [4 weeks]
- Jessy Rose-Clark (in for Joanne Calderwood) vs. Bec Rawlings [0 days notice] was training for Vanessa Porto Dec 8th
- Shane Young (in for JKennedy/Bandenay/Zamboanga) vs. A. Volkanovski [0 days notice]

Ring Rust:
- Bec Rawlings 287 days
- Jake Matthews 357 days
- Ryan Benoit 350 days
- Nik Lentz 280 days (pulled out in Oct, medical issues)
- Adam Wieczorek 406 days
- Alex Chambers 805 days
- Tai Tuivasa 399 days

Returning from TKO loss:
- Daniel Kelly (TKO by Brunson) in June
- Anthony Hamilton (TKO by Spitz and Fortuna) in Sept
- Damien Brown (TKO by Pichel) in June
- Rashad Coulter (TKO by Sherman) in May

 

[Stunna77]

Ended up rewatching some means/belal last night. Still coming to the same conclusions that Means probably stuffs enough tds and wins the striking battle to a dec or lands something big in the clinch or on the counter to put belal away. Really like how means defends takedowns, as he looks to defend the initial shot or break the hands if its a body lock, and then instantly looks to reverse or deliver punishment. Cowboy beasted him with a rear bodylock, but Belal simply doesn't have the strength or size to do the same. Means also won't let Belal dictate the pace and push him backwards to the fence like Randy Brown did, which is where he had success taking him down. Mein came forward most of the first round against him, but he just looks so disinterested in fighting these days that it was hard to guage much besides that Belal does allow opponents to contol the pace/range, which isn't a sound strategy against Means and really isn't agains Mein, if he actually wanted to be there. When they do clinch, I expect Means to get the better of him there with knees/elbows/reversals, etc.

Also found the below link discussing his injury in Cowboy 2 and how it affected that fight fwiw.

https://www.bloodyelbow.com/2017/6/...y-oklahoma-city-injury-ufc-mma-interview-news

 

[Card]

 

[Card]

For anyone who can translate

 

[Card]

Trained hard, in good shape, I come to fight