UFN 120 - Poirier vs Pettis - Virginia

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Oct 28, 2017.

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  1. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    Okay...don't get me wrong here. There's no question Guida will have more in his tank than Joe. I totally agree. And Guida's striking isn't awful, it's just that same bouncing around, throw a few punches to set up a TD, repeat. He was doing well in the standup vs Koch, but did he land anything that even came close to hurting Koch? I think he has one KO/TKO win in 11 years in the UFC (20+ fights I think)? And it was in 2008.

    From a betting standpoint, it's hard for me to justify a ML bet on Guida. +140 for his dec line right now, -120 ML. I think his odds of finishing Joe are <10%, I really do.

    Also, if it's one round each after 2 and it looks like Guida's superior gas tank will likely be the difference, there's a chance his live line might not be much worse than -120 (depending on what the fight looks like).
     
  2. thesharktank

    thesharktank Purple Belt

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    Is anybody taking Diego Sanchez? Matt Browns chin could be touched up at this point.
     
  3. thesharktank

    thesharktank Purple Belt

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    You are right about this. I really liked what I saw out of Guida against Koch and Ortega and wanted to take him here, when his ML started dropping I got some in on him at -105 (1.95). Made the rest of my play right now on Dec at +170. I wouldn't be shocked if he caught Lauzon with a big strike as Joe does not have great striking defense and crazier things have happened (who thought Joe would 1 punch Diego), but I think the extra juice is worth it. Joes BJJ should protect him from a Guida follow up finish if the unthinkable happens and he gets dropped
     
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  4. Stunna77

    Stunna77 Purple Belt

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    Brown's chin is definitely touched up, but Diego couldn't even finish Gomi, so not real worried about him cracking brown. Could happen, but the majority of the time if Diego wins its because he gets his wrestling going.

    Diego's last KO/TKO was against Luigi Floravanti in the TUF finale in 2008..
     
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  5. betrayedlurker

    betrayedlurker Banned Banned

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    High level analysis from, as Jon Anik said on his podcast, one of the sharpest minds in MMA betting. Respect.
     
  6. Stunna77

    Stunna77 Purple Belt

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    Gabe has some elite plays for this event and his four suggested prop plays were ones I hit previously (Guida Dec, Moraes Dec, Fortuna ITD, and Brown KO). Sounds like me and Gabe are going to make some bread tonight while Zee's takes an L.
     
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  7. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    Dodson NSC honestly maybe the best bet on the card. Yeah, it probably is a push, but the risk is just sooooo low.

    IF there is a finish, these odds are just WAY off on who's more likely to get it. Dodson never been finished (or even close that I can remember--maybe MM had him in a little trouble once in 50 minutes of fighting). Dodson obviously has faced better competition by far too. Has been in with the best there is, and looked better than anyone else has against him. I thought Dodson beat Lineker too. Lineker a more dangerous finisher by far than anyone Moraes has ever fought.

    I like Moraes, I think he's a top 10 talent. But this line makes no sense. Moraes isn't gonna finish Dodson outside a giant fluke.
     
  8. quincy k

    quincy k Brown Belt

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    you can say the same for moraes decision +190 when he was a -110 ml
     
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  9. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    idk about best bet on the card, but yea, i have a couple hundy on it (and 4+ on moraes straight, haha)

    i wish i had more on moraes dec and less on his ML, but oh well
     
  10. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    Agree. That spread makes absolutely zero sense given how low the % is that he finishes Dodson.
     
  11. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    Not worried about the speed difference? Dodson makes everyone look slow (other than MM).

    That said, Moraes has proven to more consistently be active and Dodson looks to counter too often in some of his fights.

    I'm excited about this fight, should be really interesting.
     
  12. quincy k

    quincy k Brown Belt

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    i argued with some people here a few days ago regarding the decsion line where they apparantly saw little value.

    it was so stupid, its like they wanted to argue just to argue.
     
  13. AmericanBeauty

    AmericanBeauty Orange Belt

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  14. Joseph Budden

    Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Clay GOATda best bet as long as he stays around evens. Just pseudo hedge w Lauzon round 1
     
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  15. Zee's MMA Subscriber

    Zee's MMA Subscriber Green Belt

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    What about Guida decision +170? highly unlikely he finishes Lauzon.
     
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  16. Joseph Budden

    Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Wouldn’t be surprised by late finish if Lauzon is gassed but yeah that’s only way he can
     
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  17. Jamah

    Jamah Green Belt

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    Aren't you worried about Guida getting caught in a submission? His sub defense is far from good
     
  18. Zee's MMA Subscriber

    Zee's MMA Subscriber Green Belt

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    Very doubtful that happens, Clay hasn't finished anyone since 2011 and is not a dangerous fighter, Lauzon is as tough as they come.
     
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  19. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    +170 is a great line for Clay dec. I like Joe actually, but if I could get +170 I'd bet that Clay dec line for sure.

    7 years since Guida finished anyone. SEVEN. YEARS.
     
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  20. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    DefinitelyNOT strong leans but no one's really talking about Collier / Stewart to start the night. I think both lines are definitely skewed . But not going big on either.
     
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