Okay...don't get me wrong here. There's no question Guida will have more in his tank than Joe. I totally agree. And Guida's striking isn't awful, it's just that same bouncing around, throw a few punches to set up a TD, repeat. He was doing well in the standup vs Koch, but did he land anything that even came close to hurting Koch? I think he has one KO/TKO win in 11 years in the UFC (20+ fights I think)? And it was in 2008. From a betting standpoint, it's hard for me to justify a ML bet on Guida. +140 for his dec line right now, -120 ML. I think his odds of finishing Joe are <10%, I really do. Also, if it's one round each after 2 and it looks like Guida's superior gas tank will likely be the difference, there's a chance his live line might not be much worse than -120 (depending on what the fight looks like).