UFN 119 - Machida vs Brunson - Sao Paulo | Page 28

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Oct 8, 2017.

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  1. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

    MMA Goodfella
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    Fair enough. I kind of thought that after I wrote it. . Reflexes will play a significant part but I guess my point was that Machida has never been a super athlete or a fighter who requires one major athleticism like a Roy Jones Jr.. Instead he is more about timing and setting traps, more like a Bernard Hopkins who fought successfully into his late 40s. Indeed, Machida’s historically been a fighter who lays back in the cut and waits for his opponent to get frustrated and then run into a flamethrower. Just like what happened with Rashad Evans and Ryan Bader.

    And we seen Derek do this exact same thing when he faced off against Robert Whittaker. What’s more, I believe Machida has just as much left in the tank is Anderson Silva — if not more — and DB was so tentative to engage there. Ergo, I believe he may get over aggressive this time searching for a definitive finish and get smoked.

    Additionally, I think the two years away my do Machida some good considering that he had lost three of his last four and his brain needed a rest. He has been in the gym honing his skills at the highest levels and getting his mind right. Plus putting together new techniques and letting his body rest. This could be a vintage performance from Machid; kind of when Dominick Cruz came back and ran through Miz like a hot knife through butter
     
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  2. Zee's MMA Subscriber Blue Belt

    Zee's MMA Subscriber
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    LOL "level headed"

    You were literally making stuff up, saying he was "off balance and he looked like he was going to fall over". Then saying "he was putting on a poker face".....the guy was literally crying in front of everyone how is that a poker face?

    The guy made weight like he always does and he wasn't late to weigh in

    I never denied he had a hard cut, I know how much he cuts but you were totally blowing it out of proportion because of the crying. People seem to forget that crying it an emotion response not a physical one. If he wasn't crying, no one would have been saying much. People are so quick to jump to conclusions, due diligence.
     
    #542
  3. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

    MMA Goodfella
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    LOL at CC saying that he’s going to submit Maia now. Goddamnit, this maniac probably believes what he is saying. He was a Junie Browning type of guy in college which got him kicked out of one University — I think it was Iowa State but don’t quote me — which forced him to go to a JUCO and then finally transfer to Oregon state when he had his shit together. But he was a bully in school from all accounts. A loud mouth party boy and thug in the Junie Browning/JT Money style of persona. This is why he was awarded him the apropos monicker of “Chaos“ in school. Now I have to shave a bit of money off of him.

    My main plays are going to be : (roughly)
    Covington ML-125 1.25 units
    Covington X decision +155 3.00u
    Covington r3 +1700 0.2 units
    Maia r1 +690 1.00 units
     
    #543
  4. Gugabe Yellow Belt

    Gugabe
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    I'm hedging with 0.5u on CC Sub 3 @ +5700. I don't think he's going to win, but I overwhelmingly see it coming via late RNC if he does.
     
    #544
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  5. turbozed Red Belt

    turbozed
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    If all of this is true, I think Luque should be a bigger favorite than he is. I was hesitant to pull the trigger but if he's close to 100% he should take this.
     
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  6. SBJJ Black Belt

    SBJJ
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    Lol at you saying I made something by saying I thought he looked like he was trying to steady himself and looked unstable.

    Have you still not watched it?

    You even admitted you commented before you actually watched it.

    If you didn't see how he walked to the scale then we just see things differently.

    Then you jump back in when he's rehydrated as if you won a game of tic tac toe. SEE GUYS. LOOK GUYS! Do you even know how a bad cut effects a fighter? It will effect him in the second and third rounds. Not a few hours after he's rehydrated. Jesus

    I think he can still win and I've probably got 5X more money on the guy than you do. But I'm not gonna be blinded by my bet.

    You are probably the most hyperbolic poster in here. EZMONEY this EZMONEY that.

    Once again. If Brooks came out like that at the weigh ins. You'd be screaming EZMONEY! Brooks almost died at the scale
     
    #546
  7. Zee's MMA Subscriber Blue Belt

    Zee's MMA Subscriber
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    SMH, just take the L champ, you were making stuff up, go watch the video again.
     
    #547
  8. Naterade White Belt

    Naterade
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    I think the whole line on Lineker vs. Vera is crazy....Lineker does one thing - plows forward the entire fight, constantly gets hits and throws looping hooks. If he didn’t have a ridiculous chin he wouldn’t be able to fight and his chin will deteriorate eventually.

    Vera will have a huge size advantage and seems to massively improve every fight (even when on short notice)

    I can see many paths that Vera can win this. Very surprised he’s still such a big dog
     
    #548
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  9. wack3d Silver Belt

    wack3d
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    agreed i will take a stab on Luque i think there is a good chance this could look like a mismatch.. if Luque starts to slow there is always livebet to cover
     
    #549
  10. Sham5916910 Yellow Card

    Sham5916910
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    I think some people are overrating vera massively. Looked horrible against ning and pickett and pulled a nice sub out the bag last time that will prob be his defining moment. Lineker is going to deztroy him
     
    #550
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  11. Bestonian cba grammar

    Bestonian
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    Well thought out reply and agree with all of these except for the T-Wood and Maia as example for two reasons:
    1) We can't really compare CC to Woodley. Woodley is levels ahead.
    2) Woodley is not just a phenomenal wrestler. He is, without a doubt, the holder of a "best takedown defense" title in UFC. This is why Maia also failed so badly. How likely it is that CC's TDD is as good or similar? I'd say very low.
     
    #551
  12. barrygood1 Blue Belt

    barrygood1
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    Will not be offering a free play for this card. Swamped with capping MLB, NHL, NFL, NBA for my loyal subscribers of Barry's Handicapping Service.
    However, I promise to offer a value pick for UFC 217 due to the sheer awesomeness of the card.
    I do want to remind everyone that doing your due diligence is a must before betting a BRAZILIAN event.
    Favoritism and shenanigans should be a major factor that should not be overlooked fellas.

    Have an open challenge on the table: $5000 dollar "beatheBarry" offer for anyone who wants to go toe to toe with Sherdog's resident handicapping savant. #maddcapper #geniusbettor
    Your 5k to my 5k. Many of the critics here lambasting yours truly, but I back up my talk and I admit I am a confident son of a gun. I didn't get to where I am today through sheer luck, just good ol' fashioned blood, sweat and tears.

    Want to encourage everyone who thinks Donald Trump isn't fit to be President to call your representatives to demand change. #ImpeachTrump
    I'm having literal nightmares that nuclear armageddon is going to happen when #notmypresident goes to war with North Korea. Please, we need to find a way to get Bernie to replace Trump.
    We the people are the only ones who have the power to unite and implement change. #dotherightthing

    - Barry
     
    #552
  13. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
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    Not when you play all of them...
     
    #553
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  14. raketmannen Green Belt

    raketmannen
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    I have money on Fig. The pained expression was obviously a way too get into his opponents head, making brooks think fig is not 100%. The tears he shed are just sheer dedication to his weight cut, will do all it takes to lose water. I am even more confident that fig will win. #EZMONEY
     
    #554
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  15. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
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    just stumbled onto munhoz-font O2.5 -145...

    how's this not been mentioned hehe.

    neither guy has ever been finished.

    i do have a play on munhoz sub +800 and munhoz NSC +210, but it very easily could (and maybe likely will) go all 3. gotta take some.
     
    #555
  16. quincy k Purple Belt

    quincy k
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    he knows he has five rounds.

    im going to wait to live bet brunson and hoping for a machida good first round which can definately happen
     
    #556
  17. Zee's MMA Subscriber Blue Belt

    Zee's MMA Subscriber
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    It seems that Mark Dellagrotte is not going to be in Rob Font's corner, it doesn't even seem like he was involved in Font's camp for this fight. I've been checking out Font's instagram and he's been doing his camp under a coach called Tyson Chartier.

    Chartier's instagram is full of posts from team Font down in Brazil and Mark Dellagrotte does not appear to be with the team. Mark Dellagrotte has also made no mention of Font's fight on social media.

    I think this makes a big difference, Dellagrotte is always in Font's corner, how will Font perform without him. I really don't like that this fight is in Brazil for Font, last time he was in Brazil it didn't go well for him, tough opponent but Font looked off.

    After watching more tape on Font and Munhoz, I really like Munhoz's chances a lot more than I did before. It also seems that Fury has bet Font so maybe Munhoz's odds will get back up to +150ish
     
    #557
    Last edited: Oct 28, 2017
  18. iGnP Red Belt

    iGnP
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    Many..
    Many... paths? Like what lol. Lineker is gonna work him
     
    #558
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  19. iGnP Red Belt

    iGnP
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    I accepted a while ago... crickets. Don't be scared homie ;)
     
    #559
  20. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

    MMA Goodfella
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    Thanks and on reflection I agree. I was just trying to present successful instances where high-level division one wrestlers defeated equally high level BJJ black belts and this was the case here. Moreover, T-Wood and Maia just happened so it was at the forefront of my mind LOL Nevertheless your rebuttal rings true.
     
    #560
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