UFN 118 - Cerrone vs Till - Poland

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Surprised Held is that juiced but Warlley isn't (yet)

Alves seems slightly cheap, but Touahri seems more likely to be a real fighter than Haqparast. Can't find much tape but he does appear to have legit KO power as well as presumably some grappling ability given that his gym is "Grappling Krakow." Alves should probably win but can't be confident he will roll.
 
Family in Poland, I have fought in Poland many times, I was ranked number 1 there before, just another fight for me, comes from a great team, against Cub, early rounds were good, but then Cub showed experience, I took him down round 1, no one knows my wrestling, my pace dropped when he took my back, I addressed the cardio issues, and this is a 3 round fight, trained at UFC institute, we're going to throw down, he comes forward, may the toughest man win

 
I wasn't suggesting you have to take a side on every fight.

There's nothing wrong with doing a bit of research on all the fighters on the card, particularly when capping is what you do full-time. Esquibel has 6 Invicta fights (incl. one against Alexa Grasso), as well as 15 pro boxing bouts. She isn't 0-0.

To add to this, even if you don't have a play on a fight after capping it, you're much more prepared to LB the fight
 
[QUOTE="lifeisgood12345, post:

Being a pro isn't about taking a side on every fight, it's about finding 1-3 really good sides per card and not degening away money when you aren't sure what will happen.[/QUOTE]


I agree 100%. Not that I am a pro by any stretch, but this has always been my problem. I am finally winning at a much better rate now that I am looking at just a few fights that I have good grasp on.
 
lifeisgood12345 said:
Everybody is betting that Fili will win bc more talent, but he already has a strong track record of underachieving. He was favorite or pick em in all 4 of his UFC losses. Holloway + Yair losses are forgivable (crazy to think he was fave vs Max), but he was -300 vs Pepey and -350 vs Kattar and got owned by both. He is not to be trusted to perform like he should on paper, and there is clear empirical evidence of that.
I like how according to you Fili is inconsistent, but Held is a proven winner against pros while being 1-4 in his last 5.


Does this sound familiar? :)

Everybody is betting that Held will win bc more talent, but he has already has a strong track record of underachieving. He was favorite or close to pick em in all 3 of his UFC losses. Lauzon loss is forgivable (crazy he lost that dec), but he was -300 vs Sanchez and -300 vs Hadzovic and he got owned by both. He is not to be trusted to perform like he should on paper, and there is clear empirical evidence of that.
 
Alves seems slightly cheap, but Touahri seems more likely to be a real fighter than Haqparast. Can't find much tape but he does appear to have legit KO power as well as presumably some grappling ability given that his gym is "Grappling Krakow." Alves should probably win but can't be confident he will roll.

Salim has some power, but no lateral movement, just comes straight forward with lunging hooks, hips exposed. No head movement or footwork for defense, just high guard and moving straight backwards. I see Warley countering his wide punches or ducking under for easy tds. Could even swarm him on the fence when he throws up his high guard and backs into it. Essentially how he got KTFO in his only loss. Unless Salim lands a big hail mary, I don't think he has much for Warley here.
 
I like how according to you Fili is inconsistent, but Held is a proven winner against pros while being 1-4 in his last 5.


Does this sound familiar? :)

There's a big difference between losing a fight you should win bc you fought like ass vs losing because of bad judging or a one in a million knee. The former is likely to repeat and the latter isn't.
 
Held is close to a lock to win. He is a legit good fighter who has proven to perform well against pros and just entering his prime. Haqparast is a 22 year old nobody. Can't hold Lauzon judging against him and that KO vs Hadozovic is incredibly fluky. No need to get hung up on recent outcomes when they are highly unlikely to repeat themselves.

There is lots of evidence that Held is a good fighter and not a shred of proof that Haqparast even belongs in the UFC. Held wins this 90%+
Does that mean you are making a huge bet on Held since he wins this more than 90% of the time and the sportsbooks are only asking you to pay a modest -390 or so?
 
Best bet on the card is Devin Clark. Jan can't handle wrestlers, and that's pretty much all there is to it. He could def bust Clark up on the feet as I don't feel like Clark has the best reactions to getting hit but we all know Jan just can't stop the TD. I've got Clark in many forms of his ML and a 3rd round TKO if Jan starts to look old overnight.

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I've also got a dog play on Jonathan Wilson. Piechota looks like he could be a decent euro prospect with decent athlecism but I think he needs some time to develop. I've heard that he's beat Vinny Magalhaes in BJJ so that's where the hype comes from but it doesn't look like he has a thorough wrestling game to get guys down. I've seen him pull guard and that's always a No-No for me when capping MMA fights.

Jonathan Wilson is a solid powerful southpaw and he is very aware of his spacing and distance, if nothing else. Because he probably won't overextend, I don't see him getting sloppy and getting himself off balance for a counter shot or to get taken down so easily by a not-so-great wrestler. Another thing of note, I noticed that while Wilson doesn't have much else in his toolbox other than striking, he does have good head positioning in the clinch and that'll be a good tool to keep Pie off of him when he tries to drag the fight to the mat.

All in all, I didn't like Pie's ability to get the floor to the mat almost flopping like a fish and it leaves little to be desired IMO. His striking is serviceable but in the UFC, it's going to be his BJJ that takes him to the next level and if he can't get it to the floor, then he seriously needs a couple years to either develop wreslting or a dangerous striking game. However with that said, Piechota by submission would be a route I'll look to play on the other side.

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Other thoughts

Emmett should be -200, though he should win. He's obviously gotta watch for the armbars but he also needs to be careful with ducking his head like most TAM guys do because Arantes isn't afraid to risk getting taken down to throw that knee.

Held should get the tap against such an inexperienced guy in all facets but iono who that dude is. Fight Finder capping. Historically I've always faded Held though for the record.

Can see Emeev getting hit with some critical counters but I can also see him scoring points with knees in the clinch, which I think is the most underrated tool in his game. Toss up fight split dec with Alvey being the likelier to finish.
 
There's a big difference between losing a fight you should win bc you fought like ass vs losing because of bad judging or a one in a million knee. The former is likely to repeat and the latter isn't.
As I tried to say by switching Held and Fili's name around, with confirmation bias you can excuse or condemn a fighter however it fits your point of view. You argued earlier about Lobov being empirically better when you compare statistics or something like that, regardless of context. But when I turn it around how Held is not consistent because he's 1-4, most of them as a favorite or close to even, you argue how those losses are relative.

I'm not trying to get a rise out of you, but I think Fili being inconsistent is a bit overstated, and I definitely disagree that Held is a proven performer, you can't say that with someone losing 4 in his last 5, even if two of those losses have considerable question marks. You're willing to lay -400 on a fighter coming of a bad ko loss, and has had a hard time in the UFC so far, who's probably in realistic danger of being cut if he loses. So if you're telling people to question Fili's state of mind, then you should also want to do the same with Held, right?

Just trying to put a bit of grey in you're tendency to see black and white.
 
As I tried to say by switching Held and Fili's name around, with confirmation bias you can excuse or condemn a fighter however it fits your point of view. You argued earlier about Lobov being empirically better when you compare statistics or something like that, regardless of context. But when I turn it around how Held is not consistent because he's 1-4, most of them as a favorite or close to even, you argue how those losses are relative.

I'm not trying to get a rise out of you, but I think Fili being inconsistent is a bit overstated, and I definitely disagree that Held is a proven performer, you can't say that with someone losing 4 in his last 5, even if two of those losses have considerable question marks. You're willing to lay -400 on a fighter coming of a bad ko loss, and has had a hard time in the UFC so far, who's probably in realistic danger of being cut if he loses. So if you're telling people to question Fili's state of mind, then you should also want to do the same with Held, right?

Just trying to put a bit of grey in you're tendency to see black and white.

It's not confirmation bias bc I knew nothing about either before analyzing this card.

Discerning the difference between luck that is not likely to repeat and good/bad performance that is likely to repeat is arguably the #1 skill in being a profitable gambler. If you want to say a win is a win and a loss is a loss so let's treat them all equally, you aren't going to be a winner. Yes there are always shades of gray, but being able to discern whether it's closer to white or black is extremely important.

I have a clear read that Held is good fighter with bad luck and Fili is just not good. The market is implying the converse, so I believe both are really good opportunities.
 
wieczorek ko +259... that hamilton chin... sure... i'll bite
 
generally think stasiak-kelleher has a high chance of ending in a sub either way.. both guys sub props pay +440, +450.. which is like what, +170? DNGD is +145.. i think i'm gonna take it.
 
took alves itd -132. i feel like i'm super likely to miss the sub opener etc so whatever. i'm ok w/this. 1 week notice for touahri... that guillotine.. etc...

also i think lansberg dec +330 has some value. i'm still unconvinced that ladd has earned this price.
 
First time out of the states, i grew up wrestling, I know adversity, (when talking about being the away fighter), Jackson's MMA brings confidence, it will be a tough fight for him, I expect a finish, or a grind out

 
arantes NSC +201, arantes sub +1300, sprinkle
 
Happy to fight in Poland, shes great tough striker, I have great preparation, I am a better fighter than her

 
I'm like a caged pitbull that wants to bite when it comes to these damn limits
 
its all surreal still, I love travelling, the match up, let's do it, she hasn't faced anyone like me, I'm ready to rise to the occasion, I'm better all around, I'm well rounded, will be a tough gritty fight

 
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