UFN 118 - Cerrone vs Till - Poland

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BatBoyJG said:
For the main event, I think I would rather take does not go the distance at -175 (Dipped down to -145 which was an awesome price) I don't see Till being able to win a decision, but also he has tired in his past fights and if this goes to deep water Cerrone should finish him whether that be on the feet or the ground.
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Agreed. I mentioned this earlier in the thread and hit it for 3u at -145.
 
Stunna77 said:
Reach is a very big part of it I think. It is more than likely going to be a kickboxing match and Fili has a 9 inch reach advantage and probably a better variety of strikes. Deservingly is the favorite imo, although I haven't bet this fight. Was looking to Fili dec, but price isn't very good at +112.

The over was gold at openers, but has been bet up to -270 now.
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I don't think the over is a lock. Fili has been stopped 3 times in 7 fights and the guys he went the distance against are complete non-threats to finish outside of an OKish submission game from Arantes.

Lobov has 5 decisions in a row, but all of those guys have shown better survival ability than Fili. Prior to that he had 3 straight KO's on TUF and a submission prior to TUF, and Fili seems closer to the survival ability of the 4 guys Lobov stopped than the 5 guys who went to decision.

Lobov definitely has a chance of finishing and it's not like Fili is dominant when fights go to decision. Also I really think Lobov seems like a much more focused + intelligent fighter based on their interviews:

Fili says he doesn't know what happened vs Kattar. Didn't really enjoy fighting for a while until recently. He trained because he felt obligated not because he wanted to. Says he thinks he is the best featherweight in the world with extremely shaky tone. He misses the early days of fighting when he got a lot of stoppage wins. Overall sounds like an emotional guy who just wants to feel good but doesn't truly love fighting



Lobov says he was sparring 4 times a day after helping Conor train for Floyd. Sounds like a dude who really loves fighting and is dedicated to improving.



Here talks about how he looks at past fights scientifically in order to improve.



I have little doubt that Fili is the more naturally talented fighter, which shows in stuff like reach advantage and the many losses on Lobov's record. But Lobov is the one who truly loves fighting and is dedicated to improving. His last 3 fights were two comfy decisions and a good loss vs Swanson-- my read is that he has improbably worked his way into being the better fighter of the duo.
 
lifeisgood12345 said:
I don't think the over is a lock. Fili has been stopped 3 times in 7 fights and the guys he went the distance against are complete non-threats to finish outside of an OKish submission game from Arantes.

Lobov has 5 decisions in a row, but all of those guys have shown better survival ability than Fili. Prior to that he had 3 straight KO's on TUF and a submission prior to TUF, and Fili seems closer to the survival ability of the 4 guys Lobov stopped than the 5 guys who went to decision.

Lobov definitely has a chance of finishing and it's not like Fili is dominant when fights go to decision. Also I really think Lobov seems like a much more focused + intelligent fighter based on their interviews:

Fili says he doesn't know what happened vs Kattar. Didn't really enjoy fighting for a while until recently. He trained because he felt obligated not because he wanted to. Says he thinks he is the best featherweight in the world with extremely shaky tone. He misses the early days of fighting when he got a lot of stoppage wins. Overall sounds like an emotional guy who just wants to feel good but doesn't truly love fighting



Lobov says he was sparring 4 times a day after helping Conor train for Floyd. Sounds like a dude who really loves fighting and is dedicated to improving.



Here talks about how he looks at past fights scientifically in order to improve.



I have little doubt that Fili is the more naturally talented fighter, which shows in stuff like reach advantage and the many losses on Lobov's record. But Lobov is the one who truly loves fighting and is dedicated to improving. His last 3 fights were two comfy decisions and a good loss vs Swanson-- my read is that he has improbably worked his way into being the better fighter of the duo.
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Some really good points here. I do agree with Stunna that the o2.5 opener was a very good price at -170, but it's lost all it's value now.

Like you said, it feels to me like this might be a case of guys moving in different directions. Lobov seems to be improving fight to fight recently and Fili looked awful in his last fight IMO. I'm still not ready to fully trust Lobov though after his first couple UFC appearances, so only 1u at +160 for me.
 
Man. Fili just sort of mentally quit when things didn't go his way last fight.

I also think Katter is just a lot better than we thought though
 
SBJJ said:
Man. Fili just sort of mentally quit when things didn't go his way last fight.

I also think Katter is just a lot better than we thought though
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if i remember right, fili got outstruck the entire fight yet didn't shoot a single takedown.

that kind of stupidity makes him unbackable to me, especially as a fav.
 
I'm never betting Hamilton again. Never. I wouldn't bet on him vs Mighty Mouse or McGregor
 
I don't really get people saying Till has such amazing self-belief, he sounds pretty much like every other upcoming fighter that says they eventually want to end up with the belt. I mean, you oughta have some confidence.
 
These guys usually have some decent betting discussion, with host Daniel Levi on Cowboy this time. But I was surprised by something co-host Shaq said. He said likes Till because he thinks Cowboy can be "punked out" and that he is waiting for a different opportunity to fade Till, perhaps against someone like Elizeu Zaleski (dos Santos). So he thinks Zaleski is a tougher fight for Till than Cerrone? I thought that was a very odd take on this main event.

 
This comment sums up this thread so far lol:

"may be on a higher level of intelligence than yourself. Maybe if you showed some humility you would learn to win every now and again."

Guy saying he has a higher level of intelligence and that the other guy needs some humility lol
 
NewcastleTom said:
This comment sums up this thread so far lol:

"may be on a higher level of intelligence than yourself. Maybe if you showed some humility you would learn to win every now and again."

Guy saying he has a higher level of intelligence and that the other guy needs some humility lol
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Lol
 
When winning is the only option...

Sharp plays

Ladd @1.55
Clark @1.70
Emeev @1.80

bet the same amount on each and you only need 2/3 for guaranteed profit.
 
Gamblou is unsurprisingly vatched (think he made up this word, soooo #elite of him) by Cerrone having such great odds. Great minds think alike, glad Lou & I will be making dough and fuckin hos this weekend
 
Joseph Budden said:
Gamblou is unsurprisingly vatched (think he made up this word, soooo #elite of him) by Cerrone having such great odds. Great minds think alike, glad Lou & I will be making dough and fuckin hos this weekend
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One of the sharpest minds in MMA betting, have learnt a lot from this guy, hell of a bettor.

Imagine you run a sportsbook in Vegas and you see Gamblou come up to the window, "OMG thats the bookie killer"
 
Zee's MMA Subscriber said:
One of the sharpest minds in MMA betting, have learnt a lot from this guy, hell of a bettor.

Imagine you run a sportsbook in Vegas and you see Gamblou come up to the window, "OMG thats the bookie killer"
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Imagine being the lucky lady and how wet her panties must get when after another winning night Gamblou hits the bar, spots his prey, and gives her this look of pure seduction

lou_headshot.jpg

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
 
Will throw down, I believe I'm the best in the world, lowest I've ever been, weight cut is good, KO, it will be tough, but I believe I can do it, young, up and coming, 2nd round KO, I think he will try to take me down, he can't stand with me, he has a good high kick, I don't belive he's my toughest fight, it was Guillermo Martinez Ayme

 
I was surprised they offered me this fight, I just want to go in there and knock him out, I can not be beat, I'm going in there to take his face off, back in Liverpool to train MMA, evolve my standup, after the shoulder surgery and layoff (before last fight), I feel stronger, it's stronger, training with Terry Etim, I'm big like a gorilla in this division

 
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