UFN 112 - Chiesa vs Lee - Oklahoma City

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That entire conversation was never about if Sham makes money betting or how good he is at betting. Go back to the beginning of it. It's about him telling others how to bet and that they shouldn't bet on fighters who are underdogs that they don't give a >50% chance of winning. There are loads of successful bettors that bet underdogs that they don't give a >50% chance of winning. Shit, people do this all of the time with props. They are betting +600 props that they don't see that result happening >50%. Same thing with people doing parlays at deeper + odds. They don't necessarily see that parlay hitting >50%.

It's incredibly arrogant to tell others how to bet when I've seen people be successful betting with loads of different strategies. But more importantly, if someone is close to correct on their capping long term and they are playing dogs they see with +EV, they will be winning long term on fighters they don't see having a >50% chance.

So I have no clue about Sham situation as I haven't read it. However, you are correct that to be successful you need not stear clear of fighters who are underdogs that they don't give a >50% of winning. That whole piece of logic right there is folly and I seen it most attributed to Luca and for what he calls "the 51% rule". That is to say, if you don't believe a fighter has a 51% chance of winning you should not bet him. Well that might be a personal preference, but it isn't back up within equation or statistical empirical data demonstrating the negative consequences. In actuality, there is documentation statistical proof that playing underdogs is profitable.

Everyone has their own bedding style and can learn from other people, but as long as you use correct bankroll management and stay away from Multi leg parlays plays you will likely fare OK long-term.
 
i mean stansbury hits harder too. kimball hasn't got power especially and stansbury can take a shot ok. hoping and expecting to see a better stansbury here. has put on weight for this camp also so he's coming in bigger.

BOL bro, i'm on Stansbury too but let's be real, both of these fighters or extremely mediocre and putting your money on either of them is a losing strategy longterm. But when you are a degenerate Lol
 
So I have no clue about Sham situation as I haven't read it. However, you are correct that to be successful you need not stear clear of fighters who are underdogs that they don't give a >50% of winning. That whole piece of logic right there is folly and I seen it most attributed to Luca and for what he calls "the 51% rule". That is to say, if you don't believe a fighter has a 51% chance of winning you should not bet him. Well that might be a personal preference, but it isn't back up within equation or statistical empirical data demonstrating the negative consequences. In actuality, there is documentation statistical proof that playing underdogs is profitable.

Everyone has their own bedding style and can learn from other people, but as long as you use correct bankroll management and stay away from Multi leg parlays plays you will likely fare OK long-term.
there is documentation statistical proof that playing multi leg parleys is profitable too
 
BOL bro, i'm on Stansbury too but let's be real, both of these fighters or extremely mediocre and putting your money on either of them is a losing strategy longterm. But when you are a degenerate Lol
10u. biggest bet on the card for me now :D
 
BOL bro, i'm on Stansbury too but let's be real, both of these fighters or extremely mediocre and putting your money on either of them is a losing strategy longterm. But when you are a degenerate Lol
what are your fav plays on this card at current prices?
 
I feel like BJ is going to get a W here -- Siver just feels like a good stylistic matchup for him. Then, BJ will say that his final fight is going to be in Hawaii when Holloway presumably defends against Edgar; he will likely say that he doesn't care who it is against, but "bring me the toughest guy you can find."

Dude you missed the most obvious line..

"If do you want to know anymore go to BJ Penn.com"… "and oh yeah, Sean Sherk, your dead!"
 
Sham is basically arguing against the 'Kelly Criterion' which is insanity for a guy who says he knows how to gamble and wants to do for living. Everyone who uses units to determine their stake uses Kelly whether they know it or not. You're determining your edge against the odds so saying "5u on this and 1u on that" you're doing the same thing essentially.

Sham mightn't be as aggressive in it's use but he's applying the same method yet arguing it doesn't work?
 
there is documentation statistical proof that playing multi leg parleys is profitable too

Not 4 and 6 man parlays.. i'm in sure there is possibly someone out there who has had success doing this route but they are in outlier. Like sure, it happens, but it's like teaching a basketball player to shoot free throws underhanded, it might work for Rick Barry who shot over 90% this way – but it Is it going to be taught by shooting coaches is the preferred method to increase your FT Percentage.

The sports books feast on people who almost exclusively utilize a multi leg parlay strategy and over play props. If you could dig up some documentation proving that five team parlay's are successful strategy love to see it.

That's the thing though also, when I said multi leg I'm meaning four or five team parlay's.
 
10u. biggest bet on the card for me now :D

BOL bro!

I like;

Guida: I cannot stand him but believe he has a clear path to victory here. Believe that Koch is being overestimated and Clay Guida underrated due to both of their past performances. However, before getting finished, Clay Guida was absolutely shredding T-City Ortega for two and three-quarter's rounds before dropping the baton. Koch has never had excellent takedown defense and Guida just wears on you.

Boetsch: I am not convinced that Hendricks has turned the corner and is having a career renaissance like some people believe. I believe that he looked pretty pedestrian his last outing and remember the outcome being A bit in the air before Buffer read the scorecards. However people are acting like he wiped Hector Lombard out in the first round. Tammy has never been a great fighter but he's been consistently a good fighter and he knows who he is. He is a big bruising wrestler with tight crisp boxing centric striking approach that is implemented with lots of kicking techniques. He also has a stiff jab and mean teep.

I believe people are going to be surprised at the size difference here. Hendricks has been a career welterweight and the only reason he isn't fighting at 170 pounds because he ate his way out of the division. Not that he cannot make the weight. In contrast, Tim is an enormous middleweight who would have to amputate a leg to make 171 pounds. I believe that the size could very well be a major factor in this fight and I just can't play Johny as a favorite. Even prior to him turning into a welterweight wrecking machine he struggled against strong wrestlers and clinch fighters. Notably losing to Rick Story, barely skating by Mike Pierce and going to a split decision with a way past his prime Josh Koscheck.


Means ITD and for parlay fodder.

BJ & Case

Tony Martin is and extraordinary gasser and if he doesn't get the finish of the first round this could very well turn into Johnny case smashing on him.
 
BOL bro!

I like;

Guida: I cannot stand him but believe he has a clear path to victory here. Believe that Koch is being overestimated and Clay Guida underrated due to both of their past performances. However, before getting finished, Clay Guida was absolutely shredding T-City Ortega for two and three-quarter's rounds before dropping the baton. Koch has never had excellent takedown defense and Guida just wears on you.

Boetsch: I am not convinced that Hendricks has turned the corner and is having a career renaissance like some people believe. I believe that he looked pretty pedestrian his last outing and remember the outcome being A bit in the air before Buffer read the scorecards. However people are acting like he wiped Hector Lombard out in the first round. Tammy has never been a great fighter but he's been consistently a good fighter and he knows who he is. He is a big bruising wrestler with tight crisp boxing centric striking approach that is implemented with lots of kicking techniques. He also has a stiff jab and mean teep.

I believe people are going to be surprised at the size difference here. Hendricks has been a career welterweight and the only reason he isn't fighting at 170 pounds because he ate his way out of the division. Not that he cannot make the weight. In contrast, Tim is an enormous middleweight who would have to amputate a leg to make 171 pounds. I believe that the size could very well be a major factor in this fight and I just can't play Johny as a favorite. Even prior to him turning into a welterweight wrecking machine he struggled against strong wrestlers and clinch fighters. Notably losing to Rick Story, barely skating by Mike Pierce and going to a split decision with a way past his prime Josh Koscheck.


Means ITD and for parlay fodder.

BJ & Case

Tony Martin is and extraordinary gasser and if he doesn't get the finish of the first round this could very well turn into Johnny case smashing on him.
thanks fella. looking into hendricks next.
 
BOL bro!

I like;

Guida: I cannot stand him but believe he has a clear path to victory here. Believe that Koch is being overestimated and Clay Guida underrated due to both of their past performances. However, before getting finished, Clay Guida was absolutely shredding T-City Ortega for two and three-quarter's rounds before dropping the baton. Koch has never had excellent takedown defense and Guida just wears on you.

Boetsch: I am not convinced that Hendricks has turned the corner and is having a career renaissance like some people believe. I believe that he looked pretty pedestrian his last outing and remember the outcome being A bit in the air before Buffer read the scorecards. However people are acting like he wiped Hector Lombard out in the first round. Tammy has never been a great fighter but he's been consistently a good fighter and he knows who he is. He is a big bruising wrestler with tight crisp boxing centric striking approach that is implemented with lots of kicking techniques. He also has a stiff jab and mean teep.

I believe people are going to be surprised at the size difference here. Hendricks has been a career welterweight and the only reason he isn't fighting at 170 pounds because he ate his way out of the division. Not that he cannot make the weight. In contrast, Tim is an enormous middleweight who would have to amputate a leg to make 171 pounds. I believe that the size could very well be a major factor in this fight and I just can't play Johny as a favorite. Even prior to him turning into a welterweight wrecking machine he struggled against strong wrestlers and clinch fighters. Notably losing to Rick Story, barely skating by Mike Pierce and going to a split decision with a way past his prime Josh Koscheck.


Means ITD and for parlay fodder.

BJ & Case

Tony Martin is and extraordinary gasser and if he doesn't get the finish of the first round this could very well turn into Johnny case smashing on him.

size and length as tim is going to have a five inch reach advantage.

the johhny hendricks that was a welterweight wrecking machine doesnt exist anymore. he used to have a great first step that compensated for his 69 inch reach but that first step has been gone at 170 let alone 185.

hendricks was effective with his knees against lombard but boetsch is going to be probably six inches taller that lombard. tim is actually pretty nimble on his feet for a big guy and he should kust use the jab and his overhand right to control distance the entire fight.
 
I like Guida, Chisea, Means, BJ(lol) and Herrig
 
I actually think Tim is a good stylistic matchup for Johnny. For once Johnny might even have a speed advantage
 
I actually think Tim is a good stylistic matchup for Johnny. For once Johnny might even have a speed advantage

I consistently fade Boetsch, but he's a tough fight for Johny.

There are weight divisions for a reason. These two will likely be separated by 15-18 pounds on fight night.

I mean, Johny cuts virtually zero weight while Tim is shrinking down from around 210 pounds.

Wike Quincy said, Tim is going to have a prodigious reach advantage and could theoretically keep Hendricks only end of his punches and kicks in route to winning a decision.

Either way, this feels a dog or past situation as I am not sure how anyone can justify playing Hendricks at -225 or worse.
 
size and length as tim is going to have a five inch reach advantage.

the johhny hendricks that was a welterweight wrecking machine doesnt exist anymore. he used to have a great first step that compensated for his 69 inch reach but that first step has been gone at 170 let alone 185.

hendricks was effective with his knees against lombard but boetsch is going to be probably six inches taller that lombard. tim is actually pretty nimble on his feet for a big guy and he should kust use the jab and his overhand right to control distance the entire fight.

My thoughts exactly. And like I said Hendricks a struggle previously with wrestlers what Rick story and Mike Pierce and Kos. All of them were them were same size. Pierce actually has the same time of grinding approach as Boetsch and can replica the GP but use his size and reach to better effect.
 
Not 4 and 6 man parlays.. i'm in sure there is possibly someone out there who has had success doing this route but they are in outlier. Like sure, it happens, but it's like teaching a basketball player to shoot free throws underhanded, it might work for Rick Barry who shot over 90% this way – but it Is it going to be taught by shooting coaches is the preferred method to increase your FT Percentage.

The sports books feast on people who almost exclusively utilize a multi leg parlay strategy and over play props. If you could dig up some documentation proving that five team parlay's are successful strategy love to see it.

That's the thing though also, when I said multi leg I'm meaning four or five team parlay's.
an
 
I consistently fade Boetsch, but he's a tough fight for Johny.

There are weight divisions for a reason. These two will likely be separated by 15-18 pounds on fight night.

I mean, Johny cuts virtually zero weight while Tim is shrinking down from around 210 pounds.

Wike Quincy said, Tim is going to have a prodigious reach advantage and could theoretically keep Hendricks only end of his punches and kicks in route to winning a decision.

Either way, this feels a dog or past situation as I am not sure how anyone can justify playing Hendricks at -225 or worse.

I honestly think the Johnny hate has gotten out of hand. Like way out of hand. The guy has issues. But he lost to Lawler(Maybe) and Winderboy(a horrible matchup for him). Also gave Gastelum a good fight. These are good fighters. He will have a speed and striking advantage here probably. Tim will likely plod forward and throw seldomly. And even though he will have a size advantage I doubt he outmuscles Johnny. People thought the same with Lombard.

Tim is not that good and has basically gotten lucky with gassers and weak chins. I'm not saying play -200. But I see much better dogs this card
 
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I honestly think the Johnny hate has gotten out of hand. Like way out of hand. The guy has issues. But he lost to Lawler(Maybe) and Winderboy(a horrible matchup for him). Also gave Gastelum a good fight. These are good fighters. He will have a speed and striking advantage here probably. Tim will likely plod forward and throw seldomly. And even though he will have a size advantage I doubt he outmuscles Johnny. People thought the same with Lombard.

Tim is not that good and has basically gotten lucky with gassers and weak chins. I'm not saying play -200. But I see much better dogs this card
IDK man Tim decision at about +400 is pretty damn tempting
 
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