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Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, May 8, 2017.
not good enough to stop held, imo. not unless held gasses himself out.
Just watched stasiaks last few fights.
He's a poor mans Marcin held/ Damian Maia but his grappling is actually fun to watch.
What a bum filled shit card and they make us wait again.
Don't think I'll watch this one, let alone bet on it.
GTFO then haha. Us degenerates bet on anything. We've had way worse cards. Wtf is there to do on a Sunday morning?
No huge names but it's a good card on paper.
Held - awesome grappler. Never in a boring fight.
Darren Till - prospect making his return. Exciting fighter.
Pedro Munhoz - ranked 12 at bantamweight. Just choked scoggins and finishes quite a bit.
Alhassan - is a killer. We'll see if he's legit or not.
Ben Saunders - exciting fighter.
Micha - top 10 light heavyweights.
Main event is two top ten light heavyweights coming off wins.
It's a shit card barely worth downloading, just my opinion.
Edit: I'll be civil.
Is there any reason Gustafsson vs. Teixeira warrants an o2.5 hovering around -120?
Gus has been slowing down in the past few years (he dropped Cormier but looked worse than expected vs Blachowicz), and finishing Glover is pretty difficult--he is definitely a better grappler than Gus, and has only been knocked out once in the past decade.
Gus survived some of Rumble's nastiest shots without actually going out. I don't see either finishing the other inside of 2.5 rounds. Considering 3 or more units on this, maybe tossing it into a moonshot parlay. Thoughts?
Yea I looked at the over too, think it has a bit of value. That said Glover is getting old and Gus have power (yes he hasn't TKO'd a lot of people recently but when he lets go a bit he's been knocking out a lot of half decent fighters with one strike and such). Also who the fuck knows where his head is at. I do agree it should be a bit steeper though, but it's far from a look.
LOL very important post, thanks!
Completely forgot about this guy. Watched some tape on him before the Wendell de Oliveira Marques fight and backed him at a decent price. His last fight was back in 2015, Injuries cost him the time off?
Im all over the over, at even and -115 cant see a finish in this fight both tough and can take shots, just watch the jon jones fight vs gus look at what jones says at the end of the fight
Sarcasm, how original.
After some tape still not liking much, unfortunately. Likely to force some plays to give myself a reason to get up and watch this card. Probably will play Smith DEC depending on the line.
Haven't watched Hermansson tape yet, but can someone give be a brief assessment of his chin? I feel like the over could be a good play here.
EDIT: Actually don't think I like that over if I'm leaning Nicholson. Hermansson likes that circling, methodical style and Nicholson fought slow with Alvey, but I think he'll look to pressure Jack and disrupt his rhythm.
Hermansson looks to have a solid chin, and not much power himself. I don't think Nicholson's striking is sharp enough to catch the joker with a big shot. I like the over if it's 1.5, and Nicholson NSC. Can't see both losing
Confidence increased in Misha by sub.
I will make a small parlay with Misha sub + Mairbek.
Mairbek fight off dude.
Has the UFC announced? There was nothing on Tiger's page and my contact hasn't e-mailed me back yet.
Thus card sick, no doubt about that, Gus gets the win might put a few quid on him.
Ok a little off topic but I want some input here .
I made $633.00 last event, it could have been more if only for Chas Skelly winning and also the over 2.5 hitting (I was beyond pissed when Skelly got finished in the 3rd).
Skelly was my last leg of 2 parlays, one a 7 team parlay and one a 5 team parlay.
The 2 parlays I spent and the amount I could have won :
Parlay 1 - $20 to win $210.88
Parlay 2 - $25 to win $324.09.
Now this is where I want input.
All Skelly had to do was win and/or the fight go over 2.5
At this point, should I have hedged with Knight for say $50(Knight was -130 before the fight started), and then hedge the 2nd parlay with under 2.5(it would have been plus odds, something like +150-200) for say $25? Do people use this strategy?
This way no matter what happened, Knight or Skelly winning or under2.5 or over 2.5 I would have broken even or even got some profit.
Also if I hedged like this, is this a reason for a bookie to limit me?
Me personally i'd maybe hedge to cover my stake but im a greedy mofo so that's all i'd hedge rather than hedge to guarantee profit. Having said that if the parlay was on its last leg and paying 10k id certainly hedge to guarantee myself some sort of profit. And no i wouldn't hedge with the same book.