UFN 108 - Swanson vs Lobov - Nashville | Page 59

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Apr 1, 2017.

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  1. t6p Green Belt

    t6p
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    Last time I recall was the TUF 24 finale back in December. Based on the size of the arena, I would assume tonight would be the big cage.
     
    #1161
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  2. Roads55 Brown Belt

    Roads55
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    maybe wme is reserving small cages for heavyweight cards in denver
     
    #1162
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  3. rille31 Brown Belt

    rille31
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    Old rules?

    New rules?

    Pride rules?
     
    #1163
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  4. MMA Diversity MMA Diversity

    MMA Diversity
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    Small bet on Davis/Dandois o2.5 +102. Thinking Sandoval +130 too
     
    #1164
  5. edole Brown Belt

    edole
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    Sandoval [​IMG]
     
    #1165
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  6. MMA Goodfella Jury-Jiu-Jitsu Purple Belt in capping

    MMA Goodfella
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    All right guys, I finished every break down on the card! All the previews, breakdowns and predictions can be read either here http://mmagamblingtips.com/blog/index or below. I will spoiler them to save space if you want to read them in the thread.

    Cub Swanson vs. Artem Lobov

    So this is really happening? It's not just a fever dream. In what is assuredly one of the UFC's strangest main events in it's modern history we have perennial featherweight contender Cub Swanson locking horns with Conor McGregor stablemate and SPG Ireland productArtem Lobov. Swanson is an flashy striking specialist who has a bottomless bag of tricks to go along with the Brazilian jujitsu black belt that's tied around his waist. In short, "Killer Cub" is dangerous wherever this match takes place. Meanwhile, Lobov, is ostensibly I want to die mention all brawler who slings heavy weather but doesn't see his strikes well at all. On the mat the the TUF 24 finalist is for all intents and purposes a fish out of water. These paltry attributes of Russian slugger would explain his miserable 13-12 record.

    Unless Swanson has fell apart overnight, Lobov is fitting to get hustled. Quickly!

    Prediction: Swanson by knockout round


    Al Iaquinta vs. Diego Sanchez
    The co-main event will be an intriguing Contest in the 155 pound weight class long time UFC veteran Diego Sanchez faces off with Serra-Longo rep Al Iaquinta. Returning after a returns from his long vacation to put himself into position to live up to the expectations hoisted upon him when he first entered the Octagon doors. A victory over the one time lightweight title contender Sanchez will go along way in starting that process.

    Sanchez is Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt who who has often eschewed any notion of going to the mat in favor of a violent a toe-to-toe battle with his opponent. Lately though, Sanchez has gotten back to his grappling roots in victories over BJJ Black Belts Jim Miller and Marcia Held respectively. Sanchez is wild man who is legit crazy. He also has proven to have one of the best chins in the sport. However, there yes warning signs but even that is ending as he was starched at UFC 200 by Joe Lauzon in the first round. That is disconcerting given that Lauzon is not known to be a power puncher.

    Iaquinta is a terrific athlete and fantastic boxer who should be able to pick Diego apart on the feet and stuff his takedowns to remain vertical. He is also six years younger than Sanchez at 29 and 35-years old respectively. Additionally, he has infinitely less mileage on the damage odometer.

    Iaquinta had won four straight and seven of eight fights before his protracted hiatus. There may be a brief feeling out process with cage rust playing a bit of factor, but Sanchez is that someone who is going to let you settle in. Indeed, "Lion Heart". as he wants to be called now, is going to get right in his face and punch him. As soon as Iaquinta gets cracked he is going to know he's in a fight. After that I think he uses his speed and striking skills to polish Sanchez off somewhere late in the second round.

    Prediction: "Raging Al" TKO round two


    Ovince Saint Preux vs. Marcos Rogerio

    In a light heavyweight tilt that is sure to produce fireworks and leave someone face down crumpled in a heap of ruin, hometown fighter Ovince Saint Preux looks to bounce back against Brazilian berserker Marcos Rogerio. Rogerio is a front foot brawler with strong striking and a background in Muay-Thai. He is consistently marching his man down chucking leather where he either ends things quickly with success or he goes out on his shield. The one trend to all of his fights is that they do not leave the first round.

    Meanwhile, Saint Preux, is a StrikeForce veteran who has traditionally been ranked in the top 10 since the promotional merger. A plus athlete, "OSP" uses his speed and strength to his utmost. He has underrated submission skills and is a heavy handed sniper. However, the former Tennessee Volunteer football player leaves much to be desired his kickboxing fundamentals. Specifically he leaves wide open holes to be counter. He has also demonstrated a propensity to slow down after the first round.

    OSP should be able to get this win but his loss to Volkan Oezdemir is seriously worrisome. Nevertheless, he should enjoy an advantage over the Brazilian in almost every pertinent category with a significant edge in speed and overall athleticism.

    Rogerio's wife Missus Weight does not like the outcome.

    Prediction: Saint Preux Sub round one

    John Dodson vs. Eddie Wineland

    Bantamweight standouts are scheduled to meet tonight in a match up of fan friendly fighters as former flyweight title contender John Dodson mixes it up with one time bantamweight title challenger Eddie Wineland. These two are veterans of the sport and both fancy the knockout. However, they get it in very different manners. For his part, Dodson is ultraquick athletic ball of energy who is in out of the pocket hitting you from all angles. Indeed, Dodson is a whirling dervish who lands his strikes and then is gone like a ghost. Incredibly, the 5'5" Albuquerque, New Mexico native packs a ton of TNT in his tiny hands. In addition Dodson can mix in takedowns seamlessly having credentialed wrestling background.

    Conversely, Wineland is almost exclusively a boxer. Utilizing a long snapping jab that he shoots out like a torpedo, Wineland will keep his man at the end of his punch and then drop the hammer. Buttressing his handiwork is a terrific takedown defense which has proven to be in penetrable when he is at his best.

    Both fighters can end this fight with one shot, although I believe it is Dodson who has more ways to victory given his advantages in the speed and athleticism apartment. Certainly, the "Magician" is capable of mixing things up and keeping Wineland guessing as he loads up to throw that jackhammer of a right hand of his. Dodson is like a well lubricated weathervane and I believe Eddie is going to have a difficult time finding him in the large cage.

    Prediction: Dodson by SD

    Joe Lauzon vs. Stevie Ray

    Scotland’s Stevie Ray is a serious prospect who can immediately make a name for himself and put himself into contention with a victory over long time UFC lightweight fighter Joe Lauzon. A UFC "Of The Night" money making machine, the Boston product has some serviceable striking but mainly use this as a smokescreen to find a way to bring his man to the mat so he can employee is slick submission grappling. No matter where he is, if the fight hits the floor Joe is extremely dangerous everywhere and would love nothing more than to lure Ray into his sticky spiderweb trap.

    I asked for Ray, he is Solwood everywhere and is most certainly one of the UFC's most promising up and comers. He has Thai crisp boxing technique with fantastic takedown defense. The last time we saw him Ray he was able to add a nice scalp to the mantle when he took out English UFC veteran Ross Pearson via decision.

    Ray is capable of winning this fight either by TKO or decision and I think that he does the latter. So is never an easy out, but I will leaveThe young prospect is going to be too sharp for him to deal with standing and I'm not convinced he can bring it to the mat.

    Stevie Ray UD

    Jake Ellenberger vs. Mike Perry

    Starting out the main card is a contest between heavy-handed strikers Jake Ellenberger and Mike Perry. The ultra confident Perry was quickly on the rise and looking to kick down the door of the top 10 until he ran headlong into the versatile striking of Alan Jouban. While he hits with thunderous power, Perry is still very raw and his mechanics need to be tightened up. He is athletic and always on his front foot looking to test the heart of his opponent. He doesn't have the best of footwork but he walks his man down like the Terminator until he can put their back up against the cage and of load with bombs. This forward momentum however leaves him vulnerable to the takedown and ripe to be countered. Moreover, Peary exacerbates the ability to get tagged because he chooses to fight with his hands down.

    Former top three ranked welterweight contender Jake Ellenberger has fallen on hard times lately. Once one of the UFC's brightest prospects, Ellenberger has since went through a series of peaks and valleys with several more valleys. That said, Ellenberger is still a very good fighter and when he is on he is capable of hanging with the top of the division. He demonstrated this when he had his back against the wall versus Matt Brown. In that fight Ellenberger came out with incredible confidence and as soon as the bell sound he blitzed Brown and dropping him with an overhand right prior to finishing matters with a crushing kick to the liver.

    Not only does Ellenberger good striking, he is a exceptional wrestler with underrated submission skills. The biggest problem with Jake however is between his own ears. Admittedly he checks out of fights mentally and this kills any chance he has of obtaining victory.

    Nevertheless, if Ellenberger is confident he is a seriously high-level fighter. From everything that has been brought out before this contest, he appears to have his swagger back and is in a really good place right now. If the Ellenberger that fought Matt Brown comes in to this tilt, Mike Perry is going to have a rough evening.

    Expect Ellenburger to get back to his wrestling roots and plant Perry on the mat early and take some of the steam out of his punches. From there I think Jake's chances of winning go up exponentially. I believe he once again comes throughwith his back against the wall.

    Prediction Ellenberger x decision
     
    #1166
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  7. Shoulder #29 most average paid MMA bettor on Sherdog.

    Shoulder
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    Pride rules. Seriously, so you think we ever see knees on grounded opponents? I really miss that from Pride, "Oh, I sprawled on your double leg and we are in a north-south, how does my knees taste?"
     
    #1167
  8. Tirimasuperman White Belt

    Tirimasuperman
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    Local betting agency where I am is offering +1200 for Wineland by KO, meanwhile they've got Wineland by decision at +500

    Am I crazy or are those crazy good odds for a guy who has won 4/5 of his UFC fights by KO/TKO?
     
    #1168
  9. King_Brown #AndStill #1 bettor on Sherdog ($4300)

    King_Brown
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    My expert picks DONE and ready to HIT!!!!!!!!

    Sandoval 300 to win 550
    Ortiz 300 to win 500
    Leites 300 to win 540
    Ellenberger 300 to win 720
    Lauzon 300 to win 765
    OSP 300 to win 450
    Cub/Artem U3,5 300 to win 500
    Wineland 300 to win 1300

    Cub/Artem U3,5 + Leites + Holtz + Sandoval 300 to win 2100
    Cub + Ellenberger + Lauzon 300 to win 2300
    Cub/Artem U3,5 + Lauzon/Ray O2,5 + Holtz + Davis 300 to win 1400
    Cub + OSP + Ortiz + Taylor 300 to win 1650
     
    #1169
  10. t6p Green Belt

    t6p
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    It's been hovering around +1000 at 5dimes. I can't argue with a small stab at those odds, just keep in mind Dodson has never been stopped.
     
    #1170
  11. King_Brown #AndStill #1 bettor on Sherdog ($4300)

    King_Brown
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    If i have a good night i will probably play diego sanchez too.
     
    #1171
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  12. MMA Gambling Expert #1

    MMA Gambling Expert
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    Edgy picks on Lauzon and Wineland, that's the sign of a confident bettor right there.
     
    #1172
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  13. TheOneTrueKing 4th most under appreciated tipster @betmmatips

    TheOneTrueKing
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    1u perry 1.83
     
    #1173
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  14. MMA Gambling Expert #1

    MMA Gambling Expert
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    Dustin Ortiz is becoming playable
     
    #1174
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  15. TheOneTrueKing 4th most under appreciated tipster @betmmatips

    TheOneTrueKing
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    im v tempted to swap sides now to ortiz
     
    #1175
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  16. Mcgregorian Green Belt

    Mcgregorian
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    Exactly. You can see it in his eyes he's done. I really see an early KO here
     
    #1176
  17. SBJJ Purple Belt

    SBJJ
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    Man. Wish I played Moreno at juicy dog odds. I thought it was off but dudes in here were high on Ortiz even at -200

    Playing OSP over, Wineland over, Wineland ML, Leites ML(small). Was gonna smash Berger but just not feeling it anymore. I may even play Perry here
     
    #1177
  18. TheOneTrueKing 4th most under appreciated tipster @betmmatips

    TheOneTrueKing
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    kinda feel compelled to play ortiz now just due to the fact i didnt go big on moreno at 2.6
     
    #1178
  19. Cornrow Kenny #MakeSherdogGreatAgain

    Cornrow Kenny
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    Good luck brother. #Grind #WinOrLearn #FuryIsAWeirdo
     
    #1179
  20. Rasdun Orange Belt

    Rasdun
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    I'm surprised Barbereno is such a huge favorite and even more surprised people are putting him in parlays at those odds. he shouldn't be more than -200 at most. Proctor at +250 has value and I'm hitting that for a unit
     
    #1180
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