UFN 108 - Swanson vs Lobov - Nashville | Page 42

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Apr 1, 2017.

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  1. Stunna77 Blue Belt

    Stunna77
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    Yeah I do not really view this as an OSP confidence increase. De Lima clearly didn't even try to make the limit and we already knew his cardio wasn't good. Hopefully this makes De Lima rd 1 odds more enticing..
     
    #821
  2. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
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    sanchez looks pretty awesome for him at early weigh-in..
     
    #822
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  3. t6p Green Belt

    t6p
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    MMAJunkie live stream just said that OSP vs De Lima is still on, De Lima will be fined.
     
    #823
  4. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
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    ^^ confirmed, proctor just weighed in at WW

    both guys are natural 155'ers, so shouldn't make much difference
     
    #824
  5. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
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    the guy operating the scale... *rolls eyes*

    wwwunnn hawndread ind atey fowur~

    lol! john morgan and company are laughing at him, too
     
    #825
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  6. MMA Goodfella Jury-Jiu-Jitsu Purple Belt in capping

    MMA Goodfella
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    Edit....made error, will repost momentarily
     
    #826
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  7. King_Brown #AndStill #1 bettor on Sherdog ($4300)

    King_Brown
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    Placed quick elite parlay: Taylor + OSP + Ortiz + Cub 300 to win 1650. Thank you. Honestly not laying any juice on wmma anymore for this card. Black and explosive fighters for the win!

    I watched Penne again. She is 34 and fading. I see Taylor outpointing him with quick in and out movements.
     
    #827
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  8. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
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    ellenberger looks SUPER drained, but made weight
     
    #828
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  9. MMA Goodfella Jury-Jiu-Jitsu Purple Belt in capping

    MMA Goodfella
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    Hey ez where is the stream? On YT? I can't find it live!
     
    #829
  10. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
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    no ceremonial weighins today, btw. they're gonna bring everyone back to the stage for squaring off at 12 noon ET (1 hour and change from now)
     
    #830
  11. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
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    #831
  12. MMA Goodfella Jury-Jiu-Jitsu Purple Belt in capping

    MMA Goodfella
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    #832
  13. MMA Gambling Expert #1

    MMA Gambling Expert
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    IDK man I think Taylor could ruin it for you. This fight with Penne has spilt decision written all over it.
     
    #833
  14. MMA Goodfella Jury-Jiu-Jitsu Purple Belt in capping

    MMA Goodfella
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    Ok.. I fixed it:

    Ok, I broke down all the FN 108 Prelims on my site
    HERE

    I'll have up full card later tonight.

    BTW
    I know we've had some sniping but before anyone gets their panties in a wad, I'm not spamming and I'm not making a single red cent off these breakdowns. It's no different than posting shit from any other website like MMAOB or FFP or w/e it is. I'm just trying to help people who want the b/d's but not ITT where it eats up a whole pg. Here they are just in a centralized location where everyone can read them. If anyone wants me to copy and paste them in the forum just let me know. Or any of you guys can C&P here as well.

    With this said...
    For those without much time here's the TLDR version.

    185lbs- #11 THALES LEITES (26-7-0) vs #13 SAM ALVEY (30-8-0 1NC)

    The long time Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt is physically strong and when he is dialed in he is a handful for anyone. The problem is figuring out when he is going to be "on" and when he simply just showing up to go through the motions.

    Make no mistake, Leites can win this fight but Alvey is not a fighter you can go through the motions with and expect to get a victory. While he is one dimensional, the long time Team-Quest product is damn good at that dimension. What's more, he buttresses his vertical handiwork through a stupefying 85% takedown defense. .......

    Alvey has nasty counters and Leites has a terrible habit of backing straight up with head high and his hands down. This is a recipe for disaster. I'm not sure Leites can deal with the thudding percussion that will come in the form of Alvey's punches. The Brazilian has always been a bit of a front runner and Alvey isn't someone who you are going to just bulldoze. Finally there's momentum factor. Alvey is on a four fight tear while Leites 1-3 in his last four bouts.

    Expect the smiling ginger to dance his way to the Octagon and have a 10,000 MW smile as he exits.

    Prediction: Sam Alvey via first round TKO

    125lbs- #8 DUSTIN ORTIZ (16-6-0) vs #10 BRANDON MORENO (13-3-0)

    This should be absolute barnburner between two of the UFC's most promising young flyweights. The biggest difference in this match is the veterans savvy of Ortiz and his wrestling. With his terrific takedown defense and strong offensive wrestling attack, Ortiz should be able to dictate where the fight takes place. Once on top of Moreno look for Ortiz to posture up and rain down elbows. Ortiz will doll out punishment while remaining cognizant of the submission threat en route to a unanimous decision victory.

    Prediction: Dustin Ortiz via unanimous decision

    155lbs- SCOTT HOLTZMAN (9-2-0) vs MICHAEL MCBRIDE (8-2-0)

    If I'm being honest there isn't much that McBride has going for him, and he is going to be on the short end of the stick in most categories against Holtzman. The one thing that McBride does have in his favor are his anatomical attributes. Specifically, McBride is going to be 4 inches taller than his foe while simultaneously enjoying a prodigious a 6″ reach advantage. That's where the fun ends for McBride however.

    Size not withstanding, Holtzman is going to have an advantage in every meaningful discipline not to mention the sheer gap in athleticism. What's more, the Glendale, Arizona native has outstanding cardio have been gone five rounds before and his career as a former XFC champion. Holtzman is relentless and pushes a exhausting pace. Unless The former hockey player turned pro fighter somehow has a complete meltdown, he should be able to put McBride away within the first two rounds and get back on track. Expect him to do just that.

    Prediction : Scott Holtzman x knockout


    115lbs- #14 JESSICA PENNE (12-5-0) vs DANIELLE TAYLOR (8-2-0)

    ...Penne is a full-time professional makes martial artist while Taylor is working a full-time job as a correctional officer during her training camps.

    Ultimately, Taylor is going to be forced with the unenviable task of finding a way of getting inside the reach of Penne and putting together any meaningful offense. At the end of the day I believe this will be a fruitless endeavor. Penne has myriad paths to victory here. She can use her protracted reach to nip and tuck Taylor from a distance or else she can look for the takedown and work her submission skills. I am inclined to believe we see the latter. Expect Penne to push Taylor up against the cage and either drop down for a takedown or pull guard as she quickly gets the tap.

    Prediction: Penne via submission

    135lbs- #11 ALEXIS DAVIS (17-7-0) vs CINDY DANDOIS (8-2-0)

    While I ultimately favor "Ally-Gator" to get the win, I will be watching the odds. Davis has not been the same fighter since her loss to Rousey and following a prolonged absence and foray into motherhood, there's no telling where she is both physically and/or mentally at this point. However, I'm confident that the UFC upstart Dandois is a hungry young female who would love to use Davis as a steppingstone to bigger things. Additionally, with the black and brown BJJ and Judo combined with the freestyle wrestling background in the Belgian's arsenal, it's quite possibly possible she is able to ground Davis, stay out of submissions and win her debut.

    Prediction: Davis via SD (Subject to change and leaning towards Dandois ATM)

    155lbs- BRYAN BARBERENA (12-4-0) vs JOE PROCTOR (11-4-0)

    This is a terrible stylistic matchup for Proctor as Barberena is going to be the bigger man and better in all pertinent aspects. Indeed, the Glendale, Arizona native should have a significant striking advantage and his solid takedown defense will allow him to dictate where the bout takes place. Moreover, at 27 years old, Barberena is four years the junior. What's more, Proctor will be making his first octagon appearance in over 16 months, so we can expect a bit a ring rust. Meanwhile Barberena has been consistently busy.

    Summarily, Barberena has all the physical attributes along with the intangibles needed to come out victorious Saturday. The only way that I see Proctor getting his hand raised is if you can somehow catch Barberena in a scramble which is highly unlikely. The conditioning of Proctor is also going to be a concern given his time away.

    Prediction: Barberena via TKO (r2)

    125lbs- HECTOR SANDOVAL (13-3-0) vs MATT SCHNELL (10-3-0)

    At the end of the day, I believe that Sandoval is the quicker more athletic of the two principles, but much smaller and less skilled. Schnell has multiple ways to get his hand raised and I believe he has the superior conditioning as well. I anticipate Schnell pushing a rapid fire persistent pace that Sandoval can't keep us with. This match will end up being a war of attrition which Sandoval is ill-equipped to handle. Look for The young 24-year-old to start pulling away late in the second round.

    Prediction: Schnell x split decision
     
    #834
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  15. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
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    so far the notables for me are:

    -sanchez looks in surprisingly good shape
    -ellenberger drained as hell
    -de lima the biggie (pun intended) by missing by 4 pounds again

    cub is the last guy to weigh in, hasn't shown up yet
     
    #835
  16. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

    Sham5916910
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    Im playing al and cub so i need someone around -300 to give me evens. I feel barb is the safer play of all those around the -300 mark.
     
    #836
  17. King_Brown #AndStill #1 bettor on Sherdog ($4300)

    King_Brown
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    Yeah I think so too but in situations like these I will always bet young up and coming fighter. I'm totally aware these bitches can destroy my money. I'm doing good financially so I can put money here and there. I have good income from playing Poker too.
     
    #837
  18. CR0W ʙᴏxɪɴɢ

    CR0W
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    Lima missing weight isn't necessarily a disadvantage, given his past he likely didn't bother trying cutting the remaining weight. If anything he's going to be bigger and less drained.
     
    #838
  19. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
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    ok, gotcha. you know i don't agree w/your strategy at times, but i genuinely wasn't sure what you meant when you said he was "overjuiced, but you played him" hehe
     
    #839
  20. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
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    yea i didn't add to OSP or anything, i added to U1.5. it's more proof to me: he's gonna go for it and get a stoppage or get stopped / quit before long
     
    #840
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