UFN 108 - Swanson vs Lobov - Nashville | Page 39

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Apr 1, 2017.

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  1. PuertoRican Silver Belt

    PuertoRican
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    Stunna77 has first dibs, but I'll take you up on the bet as well.

    You and Stunna can do the 1 month sig bet, while you and I can do the following bet: if you win, I will change my sig for 1 month, but if I win, you return to our DraftKings events and join the next four (4) events in a row (1 month's worth).

    Deal?
     
    #761
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  2. NinjaCat456 Blue Belt

    NinjaCat456
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    Considering tailing Sham's treble but haven't watched tape on Barbarena or Proctor. Why is Barb a -333 favourite here? Is Proctor that bad?
     
    #762
  3. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

    Sham5916910
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    Barb overly juiced but i still like him a lot so i will take the hit. Joe struggles with southpaws Salsa was landing some big shots and Musta finished him from southpaw stance. Joe doesnt like being pressured even justin edwards had success with this until he gassed. Barb wont gas he will be in your face for three rounds joe is not going to cope well with that style. Hes been out 18 months and is moving up in weight didnt seem like that big a lw so red flag for me. Barb has been fighting very athletic guys or people who present a td threat joe is neither. Joe is also weak to the body maybe that was due to the cut to lw but i hope barb throws plenty of body kicks from his spaw stance. I just feel barb drowns him in the end.
     
    #763
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  4. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

    Sham5916910
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    I dont agree schnell should be the fav. Sandovals only path to victory imo is landing one of his overhands and probably has to be in r1 as his output drops from r2 onwards.
     
    #764
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  5. AmericanBeauty Yellow Belt

    AmericanBeauty
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    Thx man, had forgotten what happened last week.
     
    #765
  6. Shancock9 Yellow Belt

    Shancock9
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    First paragraph sounds reasonable
     
    #766
  7. AmericanBeauty Yellow Belt

    AmericanBeauty
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    Dodson vs Wineland.

    Dodson has better footwork, KO Power and is lightning fast.
    Wineland also has KO Power but he fights hands down.
    Fighting hands down works for Eddie but against a guy like Dodson it's a big mistake.
    In his last fight Dodson did very well against Lineker and stayed away from Linekers powershots.
    If he does the same to Wineland and stays away from Winelands power shots, he will win.
    Plus Dodson has the better camp.
    I will go with under 2.5(+120)
     
    #767
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  8. MMA Gambling Expert #1

    MMA Gambling Expert
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    What is your most elite underdog play for this event?
     
    #768
  9. JimGunn Red Belt

    JimGunn
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    Man, catching up with these threads is a pretty ponderous exercise nowadays with all the juvenile bullshit, hashtags, arguments, braggadocio and nonsense. On a fight related topic, I kind of feel opposite of many here that the main event could go over 3½. I could see Cub and Artem standing and swinging at each other for round after round with no one getting knocked out that easily.
     
    #769
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  10. PuertoRican Silver Belt

    PuertoRican
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    I officially cast my vote to make @JimGunn a moderator of the betting forum.
     
    #770
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  11. wack3d Silver Belt

    wack3d
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    Wineland have a huge height and reach advantage though could be tough for Dodson to land anything clean
     
    #771
  12. raketmannen Blue Belt

    raketmannen
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    The fuck, there's still no props on bet365, have they ever been this late before?
     
    #772
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  13. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

    Sham5916910
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    Do i think Dodson wins? Yes. Would i bet him @ -450? Fuck no. He's so low volume it's a joke. He had a much higher volume against Lineker as he had no choice as Lineker was in his face for five rounds, i expect Dodson to revert to type here. My biggest concern with Wineland is psychologically. He's had hisjaw broken twice and nearly packed it in after the second break. He was clearly tentative first fight back against Caraway due to this, and he hasn't fought a puncher like Dodson since the second break. How will he react the first time Dodson lands a solid shot? I've made good money fading fighters coming back from bad facial injuries (Stahl, Rory) but -450 no thanks. If anything will stab Wineland if he hits +400 or solely take his dec line. If Dodson doesn't get the KO i think this will be pretty close.
     
    #773
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  14. Shoulder #29 most average paid MMA bettor on Sherdog.

    Shoulder
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    Aren't they always super late? They are better than Unibet odds wise, but they are always so late so I'll mostly use them for MLs and live betting.
     
    #774
  15. bunt Blue Belt

    bunt
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    You think they're better than unibet? In what way odds or prop lines? Because Unibet seems to be the most consistent with releasing full lines for me. Will Hill are slow.. Paddy power are slow. Betvictor seems to have decent odds and release lines early but I've had trouble with then and don't really trust them
     
    #775
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  16. Shoulder #29 most average paid MMA bettor on Sherdog.

    Shoulder
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    Unibet is faster and has more lines, but Bet365 almost always is better, if someone is 1.65 on Unibet he's 1.70 or so at Bet365. Not 100%, but 95.
     
    #776
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  17. AmericanBeauty Yellow Belt

    AmericanBeauty
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    Jake Ellenberger.
    Jake has great wrestling and good striking.
    But unfortunately he is full with doubts and fear of getting hit.
    Jake realised it and is now working with sport psychologists.
    He also has a great camp.
    If a mentally prepared Jake shows up, Perry is fucked.
     
    #777
  18. MMA Gambling Expert #1

    MMA Gambling Expert
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    I hope you guys got that +160 on Ellenberger. Kinda crazy that Ellenberger closed at +170 against Masvidal and he got to +160 vs Perry. Masvidal is the best WW on the planet right now IMO, he is many levels above Perry, the line is so off. Ellenberger is a live dog, no doubt.

    This year favourites are winning at 70%, higher than the average. Yet I'm 8-3-1 on expert underdog plays, last week was Whittaker +200

    This week:

    Schnell +105
    Ellenberger +160
     
    #778
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  19. Jamah Blue Belt

    Jamah
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    I'm on the under 1.5 rounds odds 2.10 / +110
    I think one of them is going to get slept fast
     
    #779
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  20. MMA Gambling Expert #1

    MMA Gambling Expert
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    If anyone is getting slept it's Perry, already seen him got KO'd in a boxing match, his chin isn't that solid and Ellenberger is one of the biggest punchers in the division. Ellenberger could end up wrestling though. Jouban was able to get TD's on Perry.
     
    #780
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