UFN 108 - PBP/Discussion

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Apr 22, 2017.

  1. Sham5916910

    Sham5916910 Silver Belt

    Joined:
    Aug 20, 2014
    Messages:
    12,101
    Likes Received:
    9,148
    Id like to be regarded as #elite im 13-2 with my double/treble last 15 events. Can someone worthy please bestow me with the title #11-1thisyear
     
    Roads55, NinjaCat456, MMAJay and 2 others like this.
  2. lawmills2006

    lawmills2006 Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Sep 2, 2009
    Messages:
    2,107
    Likes Received:
    658
    Location:
    Haggisland
    I was in same boat tbh, Lobov has a solid jaw, and the juice was coming in hard on U3.5, so boosted the price on O2.5. I just wish I was on it more...


    Hopefully this elite chat dies down a bit, you actually miss the good info/convos because of people parroting hashtags, elitepicks etc.

    55% up for the year (off a 15k Broll). Hope people got out good.
     
    EzFlyer and rille31 like this.
  3. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2007
    Messages:
    22,591
    Likes Received:
    7,720
    I know I know. It's not like I've never vented after losing a bet. Just funny that the same people saying how amazing Cub was a few months ago when he wont them $ as a moderate dog in an epic fight now call him a bum for not finishing.

    You are right that it's not always rational, we think we know what we are doing so shouldn't lose bets. When in reality if it was so easy to always beat the books, they wouldn't exist.
     
    NinjaCat456 likes this.
  4. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2007
    Messages:
    22,591
    Likes Received:
    7,720
    Lobov had Ryan Hall on his back for a full round and didn't get subbed. If anyone was counting on Cub winning via sub they shouldn't have been.
     
    Roads55 likes this.
  5. Sham5916910

    Sham5916910 Silver Belt

    Joined:
    Aug 20, 2014
    Messages:
    12,101
    Likes Received:
    9,148
    I like your bd's sir but you do have a :eek::eek::eek::eek::eek: in your armour but im sure you can adjust. Betting on a shot fighter like berger was always a terrible idea #hopeyoulearnfromthis. I remember you faded andrade against hill. Andrades upcoming fight with jj will be your first test to see if you can adjust like a true #elitebettor. I wish you every success.
     
  6. weedreference

    weedreference Green Belt

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2010
    Messages:
    1,287
    Likes Received:
    719
    The old school guys have been crushing it and team elite is getting crushed. I'm shocked. I thought we were headed into a totally new era.
     
    DevilsPt2, rille31, t6p and 1 other person like this.
  7. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2007
    Messages:
    22,591
    Likes Received:
    7,720
    #originalgangstas#notdoneyet#stayingpower
     
    LEMONZEST and rille31 like this.
  8. King_Brown

    King_Brown #AndStill #1 bettor on Sherdog ($4300) Banned

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2017
    Messages:
    1,284
    Likes Received:
    1,722
    Location:
    Platinum Nation
    No no no I didnt lose my entire bankroll bro's. I would have won like 5k+ had the u3,5 hit I think i lost 1-2K havent made he math yet,
     
  9. wack3d

    wack3d Silver Belt

    Joined:
    Jan 10, 2006
    Messages:
    13,773
    Likes Received:
    5,951
    fell alseep during the cub fight =/ pretty boring card except for a couple fights.. ended up about 10u+ very happy with that after a horrible start to the card.. big shoutout to luca for saving my night since all the profit pretty much came from dodson v wineland o2,5
     
    Sham5916910 likes this.
  10. raketmannen

    raketmannen Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Oct 1, 2016
    Messages:
    2,349
    Likes Received:
    1,896
    There were some fun fights yesterday. And some who seem very easy too pick in heinsight, should've went much bigger on iaquinta itd and perry itd. Also Moreno at +180 was a great dog play
    Small 3.7u win could've been much better or way worse

    And my bankroll keeps growing. I'm a real bettingnovice, placed my first ever bet less than a year ago, and started tracking my bets 6 months ago.So I'm glad to have been pretty consistent with winning this year
    EDIT dodson/wineland o2.5 was a fucking steal, felt so much like a trap though
     

    Attached Files:

    • br.png
      br.png
      File size:
      8.4 KB
      Views:
      12
    Last edited: Apr 23, 2017
    NinjaCat456 and Jamah like this.
  11. MidgardSerpent

    MidgardSerpent Brown Belt

    Joined:
    May 30, 2006
    Messages:
    4,190
    Likes Received:
    1,620
    Location:
    Holland
    Cub let Lobov off the hook so many times. Hit him with something big and then they just stared at each other, with Lobov with his hands at his waist. If Cub had an impressive showing and ko'd Lobov he could have had a stronger case for fighting Lobov's bestie and get the biggest payday of his life. Think he really dropped the ball here.
     
    NinjaCat456 likes this.
  12. ChoKuRei

    ChoKuRei Blue Belt Platinum Member

    Joined:
    May 13, 2016
    Messages:
    741
    Likes Received:
    1,173
    Location:
    Colorado
    I have so much to learn. Keep picking big underdogs who have no business winning... Semi-retired fighters... Punchy fighters etc..

    I know the odds dictate the play. But the odds make me see value where there may be none...

    Another "learning experience" i suppose. I feel like when i watch tape and make a prediction based on stylistic matchups the predictions are usually pretty accurate, but when i rely to heavily on other "elite" bettors opinions i fall on my face everytime.


    What did i learn this weekend?
    -watch more tape
    -do not bet on fading fighters (diego, ellenberger)
    -2 team parlays or single bets
    -young underdogs around +110 have fucking value
    -in regards to WMMA its dog or nothing!!
    -fucking watch tape
    - dont try to see value where there is none


    Two weeks boys till we attack again... Gonna rest up and do my research.

    Any tips/suggestions from accomplished bettors here ide give you a listen. Cheers
     
  13. DevilsPt2

    DevilsPt2 The OriginAl

    Joined:
    Feb 3, 2015
    Messages:
    1,104
    Likes Received:
    434
    Location:
    The I>HE Plane
    Betting dogs you really don't expect to win is like going all-in in a multi-way pot with a flush draw and 98s because you believe yourself to have outs and pot odds. What amateurs fail to consder though is, what if they have a higher flush draw? You're essentially drawing dead. Try to be accurate, visual the fight in your head once you truly know the fighters through tape study. Dont get trapped by your greed, when you get really good at this you can make longer and longer leg parlays with confidence instead of playing +600 dogs that will never win. Till then, play it safe.
     
    EzFlyer and ChoKuRei like this.
  14. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2007
    Messages:
    22,591
    Likes Received:
    7,720

    Here is my advice, take of it what you will:

    I think some people try to make things more complicated than they are. When you boil down what we're doing here, it's just using your knowledge to assign a probability to an event, and then comparing the % of it happening to what a book is offering. That's it, nothing complicated about it. That's literally all that "finding value" is. Seems almost stupid to even post it, I'm sure most in here would read that and say "No shit!", but then I see some things that get posted and I'm like "WTF?"

    So that's the first part, the second is bankroll management. A lesson that most of us have learned the hard way. Figuring out how much to bet on something isn't quite as simple as the first part, but when you combine good BR with finding value that's when you have the most successful bettors imo.

    Here's what I mean: So let's say you have a fight where you think one guy wins about 2/3 the time (66.7%), but the line is even. Obviously you see great value on him as you are getting paid even $ on an event that you think cashes 2 out of ever 3 times it transpires (obviously the fight will only happen once, but you understand what I mean). That would justify a pretty good sized play imo. Your projected ROI will be excellent in this scenario. Generally (assuming you are using roughly 1% of your BR as a unit) this would be a 3-4 unit play for me. Now take another scenario. Fighter x has a KO prop paying +1400. I think that line is way off and that fighter x actually has a 15-20% chance of winning by KO. Now, the math says that my projected ROI on this prop is amazing, but no way in hell would I make a 3-4 unit play on it. Because even by my projections, I'm losing my bet 80-85% of the time on this prop. If I do hit I get paid extremely well, but your BR can't take a whole bunch of 3-4 unit hits chasing props that are gonna lose the overwhelming majority of the time.

    Everything I said here seems insanely obvious, and maybe this was zero help at all. But this is stuff I had to figure out on my own when I started, and I wish someone would have actually broken it down for me because I had to go busto to learn my lesson.
     
    Cptn1NSAN0, bunt, Bless and 7 others like this.
  15. raketmannen

    raketmannen Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Oct 1, 2016
    Messages:
    2,349
    Likes Received:
    1,896
    Well there's a first step to start winning, dont put so much value into what other people think, play the fights you yourself feel most confident in. Blind-tailing is never a good thing, at least when you lose a play you've decided yourself its on you and you learn from it. Feels much than losing a bunch of money based only on what other people think. It's so easy to fall for hype and board the bandwagon though
     
    EzFlyer and ChoKuRei like this.
  16. Cornrow Kenny

    Cornrow Kenny #MakeSherdogGreatAgain Banned

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2017
    Messages:
    231
    Likes Received:
    477
    Wow that's very impressive. Great job man.
     
    EzFlyer likes this.
  17. Cornrow Kenny

    Cornrow Kenny #MakeSherdogGreatAgain Banned

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2017
    Messages:
    231
    Likes Received:
    477
    MMA Gambling Expert likes this.
  18. ChoKuRei

    ChoKuRei Blue Belt Platinum Member

    Joined:
    May 13, 2016
    Messages:
    741
    Likes Received:
    1,173
    Location:
    Colorado
    Appreciate all the advice from all 'doggers on here... Will definetly consider everyones advice.

    Thats what this forum is all about, no?

    Cheers boys
     
    raketmannen likes this.
  19. MMA Goodfella

    MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

    Joined:
    Oct 9, 2009
    Messages:
    16,987
    Likes Received:
    3,242
    Location:
    In front of the TV waiting for Game of Thrones S8
    Wow! You can't help but show the prick in you huh?
     
  20. MMA Goodfella

    MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

    Joined:
    Oct 9, 2009
    Messages:
    16,987
    Likes Received:
    3,242
    Location:
    In front of the TV waiting for Game of Thrones S8
    Hope you guys — that aren't haters — had a great night last night.

    I ended up -12u or so. Thought Ortiz was looking very good up until he wasn't LOL great for Brandon I really love watching that kid and he seems like the nicest fellow. I totally underestimated him!
     

Share This Page