UFN 107 pbp/discussion | Page 59

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Mar 18, 2017.

  1. LogicalInsanity Gold Belt

    LogicalInsanity
    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2012
    Messages:
    21,968
    Likes Received:
    8,849

    Jesus...you have 128K in off shore books?

    Have you made withdrawals without any issues?

    I know 5dimes has almost an impeccable reputation...but there have been other books, that once had "great" ratings that eventually closed up shop and stiffed all if its members
     
    #1161
  2. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2006
    Messages:
    35,795
    Likes Received:
    14,432
    Location:
    philly
    idk, remember, small sample-size.

    the only thing that was wrong (and i'm not calling you out here, sham) was people's overconfidence and dismissal of certain things. someone genuinely told me "there's no way vera can finish pickett" -- i said it was absolutely a nonsensical statement, given where pickett is in his career.

    i agree, pickett near evens was a solid play. i NEVER said otherwise. in fact, i bought out of my vera +160 prefight because people convinced me it was prolly pickett's fight. i listened. i just said anyone acting like he should be -500 is out of his mind.
     
    #1162
    NinjaCat456 likes this.
  3. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2006
    Messages:
    35,795
    Likes Received:
    14,432
    Location:
    philly
    you're under no obligation to answer some of the personal stuff people are asking, i think you're fine.

    like @Oblivian said, waigouren has been around a long time here. i have no reason to doubt anything, etc. his opinion (especially in regards to ground games) is always one i value
     
    #1163
    OneWarrior1 and waiguoren like this.
  4. TB12 White Belt

    TB12
    Joined:
    Dec 14, 2016
    Messages:
    22
    Likes Received:
    11
    I understand that he shouldn't have to answer anything about his finances, and I wasn't doubting that he has that much money. What I meant was I have seen him recommend plays before but not so much in the MMA section. I would just assume that with a bankroll that large he plays MMA as well, so I was curious why he didn't share his MMA plays. Of course he is under no obligation to....but I would assume with a bank that large that he would be considered the most, or at least one of the most successful bettors in the thread. The answer could have been simple, he's been too busy, I'm not as confident in MMA compared to other sports, if everyone made my same plays it would ruin the lines, and so on and so on. His answer was pretty much that he doesn't need to answer because I am new and only have two posts, which is fine. It certainly wasn't as intrusive as where he keeps his money and how often he withdraws I would think.
     
    #1164
  5. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

    Sham5916910
    Joined:
    Aug 20, 2014
    Messages:
    10,959
    Likes Received:
    8,014
    I said Vera's only chance was ITD i could not see how he could out class Pickett over three rounds. I stated on here Vera's only chance was a low % move and it basically turned out that way not often you see a head kick KO. I also never thought I'd have to take into account the worst corner advice i have ever heard from someone as respected as Mike Brown. At -120 Pickett showed he was defo the right side. What i maybe was a bit too confident in was Pickett's chin holding up!

    Edit: just to add if i knew this was going to be at a catchweight of 140lbs i would have possibly not played Pickett. I was relying partly on a hard cut affecting Vera's cardio. I should have just assumed this could happen as there was no way Pickett was going to say no being his finale. Will defo take that into consideration if i fade someone late notice in the future.
     
    #1165
    Last edited: Mar 20, 2017
    EzFlyer likes this.
  6. waiguoren Brown Belt

    waiguoren
    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2009
    Messages:
    4,989
    Likes Received:
    2,544
    Location:
    China
    Oookay, did not expect to open this can of worms. I'll make one last post about it and move on.

    First, a bit of biographical info. I don't come from money and everything always seems expensive to me. In 2012-13 I went through a family situation (aunt exploited state guardianship laws to force my grandparents out of their home and into a facility, could not afford attorney fees to effectively challenge) that made me realize my broke ass and my loved ones were vulnerable due to lack of funds. Kind of an extended traumatic experience. I figured I would need a few million nest egg to feel safe on this planet. Before that I never cared much for money. I have a good math background and work as a high school math teacher plus had some success as a grappler pre-injury. I was thinking of unorthodox ways to combine skills. MMA betting made sense but I didnt want to be arrogant so for 2 years I just did simulations, no real money risked.

    Simulations went well so I made an initial deposit of $5k with 5Dimes. First event I ever bet on was UFC 187(?) Johnson-Cormier. I remember the date clearly: May 23 2015. Sorry if some of thr facts in this post are off but it's almost 1 AM where I live, I'm in bed typing on my phone and can't be bothered to check.

    Anyways 1st event I took home $2k. Back then my system was rudimentary. I was on Cormier as a slight fav among other plays. Thought Cormier would win 4/5 times. Although my previous simulations indicated success, playing for real felt different. I might have pussed out if I didn't have such a great first night.

    In the subsequent months I realized 5k was not enough of a starting bankroll so I bumped to 18k total deposit. Then it was off to the races.

    As the BR grew I expanded to multiple other books. I'm not going to talk about how I handle my money except I use bitcoin and pay my taxes. If you want to learn about how high rollers handle money and evade taxes, pretty much all your questions can be answered via the search function at SBR and Covers. Anyway, I am small fries compared to many.

    128k is not that much. These days you often can't even send your kid to a top school for 4 years on that amount. If I quit today I would consider this project a failure. @Oblivian was important in my making it this far because he argued that anyone who thought he could make it pro betting MMA was delusional. I wanted to prove him wrong. Still trying, love you man.

    The main issue you face when you reach this size is limits. Take my 1st book as an example. 5Dimes reduced juice lines are nice except they come with a mickey mouse $100 limit. Betting the limit at 5Dimes is a huge pain in mwny cases as the line won't reset for a while. Other books dont have this issue but you end up moving the line, which is worse in some ways. When that line moves I cry as value evaporates.

    Why don't I publicly share my analysis on these fights? Because I understand that I am competing against the public, not the bookie. Freerolling on openers (beating the book) is nice I suppose but are you going to feed a family that way? No. Look I understand there are many betting styles/goals and mine is more extreme. A lot of people would be happy taking home an extra 10k a year arbing openers. I fully support you guys but please also respect my style. I need to lay bigger bets on value plays. Example: I got Dariush -140 over Vick. Dariush should have been -300 there, massive value. Another time I had Means -150 over Sullivan. Absurd line. The bookie doesn't care which side I'm on as long as the take is equal on both sides. So I needed the public Vick or Sullivan money to keep those low low low low prices. Again I am happy to sometimes share info and insight in private with some of the regulars who I feel comfortable with. lf I ever succeed in this thing I have a plan for giving back to those who helped make it a pleasant experience.

    End of book.
     
    #1166
  7. TB12 White Belt

    TB12
    Joined:
    Dec 14, 2016
    Messages:
    22
    Likes Received:
    11
    Awesome man. Thanks for all that. I know I appreciate seeing contrasting styles, and even without sharing your specific plays your success shows what is possible and actually can be done. Very impressive.
     
    #1167
  8. NinjaCat456 Blue Belt

    NinjaCat456
    Joined:
    Aug 19, 2016
    Messages:
    868
    Likes Received:
    639
    What broadcast were you watching? I just watched it back now and it was actually the guy in Vera's corner on mic saying "no takedowns this round, force this guy to stand with you". Then after a bit of a pep-talk the mic switches to Pickett's corner and you hear Mike Brown saying "he's slowing down now, chop the legs".
     
    #1168
  9. NinjaCat456 Blue Belt

    NinjaCat456
    Joined:
    Aug 19, 2016
    Messages:
    868
    Likes Received:
    639
    No need for humility, you were pretty much the lone voice warning us of this, and in hindsight you were spot on. We say a KO like that is low percentage but really it's high percentage with someone like Brad Pickett as he is now. An aging fighter with a shot chin who gets dropped every fight. That's all the red flag you need right there not to bet someone.
     
    #1169
    EzFlyer likes this.
  10. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

    Sham5916910
    Joined:
    Aug 20, 2014
    Messages:
    10,959
    Likes Received:
    8,014
    Really? Im sure it was mike brown wtf?!? Will rewatch. But vera never went for a td did he? If so makes no sense for his corner to say that.
     
    #1170
  11. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

    Sham5916910
    Joined:
    Aug 20, 2014
    Messages:
    10,959
    Likes Received:
    8,014
    Great post. Im in a very similar position and am looking to go full time in just under 3 years. Good luck.
     
    #1171
    BatBoyJG and waiguoren like this.
  12. rille31 Brown Belt

    rille31
    Joined:
    Jun 3, 2012
    Messages:
    3,273
    Likes Received:
    1,431
    Location:
    sweden
    maybe they wanted him to defend takedowns ie dont let him take you down
     
    #1172
  13. NinjaCat456 Blue Belt

    NinjaCat456
    Joined:
    Aug 19, 2016
    Messages:
    868
    Likes Received:
    639
    I see where the confusion's coming from, Mike Brown's talking the same time and initially it looks like he's saying it, but the mic's on Vera's corner. As rille says he must've meant no takedowns as in don't let him take you down this round.
     
    #1173
    Sham5916910 likes this.
  14. SBJJ Yellow Card

    SBJJ
    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2007
    Messages:
    3,603
    Likes Received:
    3,045
    I sure as hell am not doubting u. I know u are the real deal. U were 1 of the few cleaning up with us in the political realm. My thing is maybe having that much offshore might become a problem. I have 26k in BM and I FINALLY was able to withdraw 3k and it looks like my next 3K is gonna be hard as hell. I have serious doubts I'm gonna be able to withdraw the entire amount. Also, when I started talking live with people over the phone they acted like my 26k account made me a damn whale. I can only imagine what they consider u. I personally would at least try to withdraw your original 18k.

    Also, to all the face of mma betting out there. My 26k BM account was from an initial 1800. And that 1800 was from a 100 parlay that a member of this board placed for me in his account. Before that I basically just made Vegas bets.
     
    #1174
    waiguoren, Barkus and Joseph Budden like this.
  15. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

    Sham5916910
    Joined:
    Aug 20, 2014
    Messages:
    10,959
    Likes Received:
    8,014
    Fuck me cant you guys use betting exchanges? I always withdraw never let more than 3k sit in a betting account whether its an exchange or normal book. Thank fuck for bookie shops here in the uk too.
     
    #1175
    waiguoren likes this.
  16. rille31 Brown Belt

    rille31
    Joined:
    Jun 3, 2012
    Messages:
    3,273
    Likes Received:
    1,431
    Location:
    sweden
    I use betfair exchange but you get alot of juicy lines and the occasional fuck up @ the regular sportsbooks like betsafe <3

    Ive been limited on a couple euro bookies and that got me scared withdrawing money, withdrawing money could potentially have a trader look into your account
     
    #1176
  17. Oblivian Aging

    Oblivian
    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2006
    Messages:
    37,435
    Likes Received:
    5,395
    Location:
    Merica
    With high risks, I definitely think people can make enough to support themselves. I just don't think it's a very good route in life to go there while quitting work and losing the work experience/tenure. It's income that's very hard to be dependent on. In the US as well (I know you are elsewhere), it's just a big risk. I also don't think you necessarily need to quit your career to be successful.
     
    #1177
    iGnP and waiguoren like this.
  18. Oblivian Aging

    Oblivian
    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2006
    Messages:
    37,435
    Likes Received:
    5,395
    Location:
    Merica
    Oh, and FWIW, I don't think I've ever seen @waiguoren brag about wins and amounts. I really didn't even know his story until now. I had no clue what his risks were. I just knew he'd been betting and contributing here for a while.
     
    #1178
    Bless and OneWarrior1 like this.
  19. mmaHobbyist Orange Belt

    mmaHobbyist
    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2012
    Messages:
    455
    Likes Received:
    111
    I almost make over 18g in 1 fight. I have 5g+ on Robbie Lawler vs Johny Hendricks 1st fight. The odd is ridiculous since Johny looks dead making weight in last second when he miss weight in first attempt. The odd is +340 for Robbie.

    The fight after 4 round is 2-2, the the devastated left hook from Hendricks in 5th round, than Hendricks wet blanket him tail end of the round. Now I just bet peanut after that crushing defeat...lol. 23g+ swing ....ouch, ouch.
     
    #1179
    rille31 and LogicalInsanity like this.
  20. LogicalInsanity Gold Belt

    LogicalInsanity
    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2012
    Messages:
    21,968
    Likes Received:
    8,849


    excuse me pal, but if you were able to turn 18K into 128K you prove that you can make a living off Sports betting. lol.

    great job by the way.
     
    #1180

Share This Page

monitoring_string = "fd5733925866a04e50edd70f38dfaa35"
monitoring_string = "603ac9fff68f23709f2a42bf5e29272b"