UFN 107 pbp/discussion | Page 58

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Mar 18, 2017.

  1. waiguoren Brown Belt

    waiguoren
    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2009
    Messages:
    3,532
    Likes Received:
    1,375
    Location:
    China
    Everyone has a different appetite for risk. I don't have any kids and I started seeing opportunities in MMA betting. Had some extra cash lying around so dove in. As for "ego", everyone has one. Most of the banter and posturing here is purely for fun and I do enjoy it.
     
    #1141
    Barkus likes this.
  2. mkess101 Gimme dat neck Khabib

    mkess101
    Joined:
    Sep 25, 2007
    Messages:
    18,089
    Likes Received:
    4,166
    I feel like the few opportunities to where I really could have taken on a lot more risk and made large amounts of $ have come and gone. I had way less $ at those times, but also a bit less responsibility (ie, I didn't have a daughter). I made big bets relatively speaking for my BR on those fights, but in hindsight I knew the lines were so far off I should have just "went for it" so to speak. GSP/Hughes 2 was the first one. I had GSP at dog odds and heavily favored him to win. Hughes/Gracie was just a silly spectacle, and Hughes was only like -250. I capped him like -1000 or more. Bet him big, just not what I should have. Couture/Toney same deal. Toney had almost no chance and I knew it. But didn't unload like I should have. At the time of those fights I was happy with my winnings, but now looking back I think "5 figures on that Hughes vs Gracie fight would be a no-brainer, like stealing..." (I think I maybe made $700 or so on that fight all told--I know I had Hughes in a few parlays so not sure exactly the amount to attribute to that specific fight).

    I just don't see giant mistakes by the books like that anymore. Am I nuts in seeing it this way? Maybe it's my way of justifying keeping my bets at the levels they are at, but I don't think so. I think the golden age of taking advantage of poor line setting in MMA is gone.
     
    #1142
    waiguoren likes this.
  3. TB12 White Belt

    TB12
    Joined:
    Dec 14, 2016
    Messages:
    16
    Likes Received:
    9
    I agree on the better lines being set now. I believe I had +1000 on Frank Mir by submission over Brock Lesnar in the first fight on sports book.com. Regardless of how you feel about the Mazzagati reffing job, finding lines with that kind of value is becoming few and far between
     
    #1143
  4. OneWarrior1 NBA Capper

    OneWarrior1
    Joined:
    Mar 28, 2004
    Messages:
    3,270
    Likes Received:
    242
    Location:
    Pinnacle
    You just have to adjust with the bookies. Right now the trend is juicing hyped up prospects like Lando since bookies know parlaying is the trend now. At this time, it's all about dog hunting. Also totals are being set at 1.5, 3.5 instead of 2.5, 4.5.
     
    #1144
    NinjaCat456 and Officer_Brown like this.
  5. mkess101 Gimme dat neck Khabib

    mkess101
    Joined:
    Sep 25, 2007
    Messages:
    18,089
    Likes Received:
    4,166
    Must have been a different book? I had an acct there and they've never offered props.
     
    #1145
  6. TB12 White Belt

    TB12
    Joined:
    Dec 14, 2016
    Messages:
    16
    Likes Received:
    9
    Definitely possible I've had a bunch through the years
     
    #1146
  7. mkess101 Gimme dat neck Khabib

    mkess101
    Joined:
    Sep 25, 2007
    Messages:
    18,089
    Likes Received:
    4,166
    Good point. Finding overhyped prospects and getting a sweet line on their oppenents prop for their most likely path to victory is a great strategy these days. I still don't think it compares to the horrible lines some books used to set, but there's still value out there.
     
    #1147
  8. MMA Goodfella Gold Belt

    MMA Goodfella
    Joined:
    Oct 9, 2009
    Messages:
    15,086
    Likes Received:
    1,362
    Location:
    Bookmaker Livebetting
    What advice did give Pickett anyway? I couldn't hear it. Though I am still fucking crushed by that and I haven't let a "L" bother me for more than a couple hours in a very very long time LOL it's just that if Pickett had that sewn up tighter than Frankenstein's face and a win equals me up like 30 units more than what I made. We're talking the difference between $10,000 and $3000. And it was right there on a fucking silver platter.

    But as bad as I feel I can only imagine how bad Brad feels. His retirement fight at home, up 2-0 and ba-boooom!! He's starched with seconds left in the fight. He must be absolutely beside himself.
     
    #1148
    Tebowned and Officer_Brown like this.
  9. TB12 White Belt

    TB12
    Joined:
    Dec 14, 2016
    Messages:
    16
    Likes Received:
    9
    I remember making good money on that couture toney fight as well but I remember being a bit nervous on it. I had to keep reminding myself that this was slower fatter Toney. The lights out Toney from when I was in high school was fast and had insane power. I don't think Randy would have fared as well.
     
    #1149
  10. TB12 White Belt

    TB12
    Joined:
    Dec 14, 2016
    Messages:
    16
    Likes Received:
    9
    I am too old to sit through another lesson on bankroll mgmt Pickett cost me about 3grand. Not in earnings but bankroll. I doubt I would have hedged being up two rounds but I couldn't have anyway. I committed to taking my kids to the movies and whenever I would even check my phone it would light the theatre up like I was sending a rescue me beacon signal out to the heavens. I could have thrown up in my 12 dollar popcorn.
     
    #1150
    NinjaCat456, Officer_Brown and Barkus like this.
  11. Joseph Budden Follow Officer Brown, #1 MMA Gambler and Great Guy

    Joseph Budden
    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2004
    Messages:
    19,348
    Likes Received:
    12,948
    Location:
    NJ
    Agreed about some having large egos. Sometimes I wish those guys would die the most painful death and also get cancer

    Luckily humble gamblers like myself, @Officer_Brown @MMA Gambling Expert are here to provide elite posts without any ego
     
    #1151
  12. TB12 White Belt

    TB12
    Joined:
    Dec 14, 2016
    Messages:
    16
    Likes Received:
    9
    Jesus is that the order too? Like they have already started dying a painful death as is...and then you drop the bombshell on them that they ALSO have cancer? What a shit day these big ego people are having. I like the way you think sir.
     
    #1152
    rille31 and Joseph Budden like this.
  13. Barkus Brown Belt

    Barkus
    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2007
    Messages:
    3,410
    Likes Received:
    426
    Some people get a gold watch for their retirement, Pickett got brain trauma. Rough night indeed.
     
    #1153
    Last edited: Mar 19, 2017 at 11:46 PM
    BatBoyJG and rille31 like this.
  14. Barkus Brown Belt

    Barkus
    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2007
    Messages:
    3,410
    Likes Received:
    426
    I used to rent VHS tapes from Blockbuster to watch the early UFCs. Damn, I'm old too.
     
    #1154
  15. waiguoren Brown Belt

    waiguoren
    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2009
    Messages:
    3,532
    Likes Received:
    1,375
    Location:
    China
    GOAT post
     
    #1155
    Joseph Budden likes this.
  16. Sham5916910 Red Belt

    Sham5916910
    Joined:
    Aug 20, 2014
    Messages:
    9,189
    Likes Received:
    6,179
    Between r2 and r3 mike brown told him to stop going for td's...
     
    #1156
    Barkus likes this.
  17. weedreference Green Belt

    weedreference
    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2010
    Messages:
    1,015
    Likes Received:
    529
    Saying 'the books' irks me. The books themselves have very little effect. It's one guy (Kalikas) setting the opening line, and then the market moves it to a more reasonable price if he misses the mark. The lines are getting worse because the guys who max the openers are getting sharper.

    The only thing the books do is continuously adjust the line so they can freeroll both sides.
     
    #1157
    rille31 and MMA Gambling Expert like this.
  18. Officer_Brown The face of MMA betting.

    Officer_Brown
    Joined:
    Sep 2, 2016
    Messages:
    4,265
    Likes Received:
    5,525
    Location:
    2017 MMA betting profit: $8330
    Pickett hurt me A LOT too. It would have been so nice to go the holiday with a huge winning. 3,2K stiff winning down the toilet and dude was 2-0 up. If Pickett was 0-2 behind and got headkicked I'd blame myself and my shitty betting skills but Brad was winning easily and then he let that headkick through. Since then i'm telling myself everyday that Pickett bet was the correct side. He wins that fight 8-9 times out of 10. Same thing with Barboza/dariush. I bet Barboza there but feel ashamed I didn't feel happy about that at all... dariush was winning the stand up exchanges. Tbh if Pickett and Vera fought again I'd bet Pickett again! ! !
     
    #1158
  19. Sham5916910 Red Belt

    Sham5916910
    Joined:
    Aug 20, 2014
    Messages:
    9,189
    Likes Received:
    6,179
    Gotta move past it dude. It will happen again it's part of betting on MMA. Go watch Kampmann Alves i was big on Alves (well big for me then). That was an even worse body blow! At least with Pickett it was nervy the whole time standing. Alves was in cruise control every second of the fight with Kampmann.
     
    #1159
    Jamah and Officer_Brown like this.
  20. TB12 White Belt

    TB12
    Joined:
    Dec 14, 2016
    Messages:
    16
    Likes Received:
    9
    Kampmann/Alves...Another perfect example of me counting my money before letting the final seconds tick away. Heartbreaking. Though not as heartbreaking as the special evening in which Diaz losing to Condit cost me a 10,000 dollar parlay closing.
     
    #1160

Share This Page

monitoring_string = "fd5733925866a04e50edd70f38dfaa35"
monitoring_string = "603ac9fff68f23709f2a42bf5e29272b"