UFN 106 - Belfort vs Gastelum - Brazil

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I'm liking the over for dairush Edson. Covers dairush upset. I doubt this fight ends itd
 
Joseph Budden said:
Already on Beneil decison. That pressure, that Chute Boxe muay thai, the threat of tds and possible clinch control. I like this play, even if it looks like i'll be the only one on Benny
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I like Benny in this too tbh. I also never like the idea of betting against Cordeiro when the other guy is primarily a striker.
 
Im surprised to see some regulars on Dariush. I think Barboza eats him up. Edson is the better striker by a good margin. Dariush relies a lot on his kicks... Barboza outkicks him all night long.

I also dont see how Dariush takes this to the ground. Edson TDD is excellent.

Maybe Im alone on this but I think Dariush has cardio issues when he is forced to work. I just dont see a clear path to victory. I mean he could catch Barboza with something but I dont see it as a huge possibility.

I also think Kelvin murders Vitor but Im not paying the juice.
 
^^^To add to this. It's EXTREMELY difficult to gameplan for Edson. Both Felder and I think Gil said as much. There's nobody you can train with to help prepare for the power and speed that his kicks come with. And even if you could (again, you can't), you aren't gonna go through a camp getting your legs blasted trying to get you ready. So you get in there, and he uncorks those things, and after you take a few all the other stuff you're trying to do happens more slowly because he's taken the spring out of your step by hammering you with those kicks.
 
I have a 10u parlay on Barboza/Gastelum. I think Barboza destroys him. Barboza's footwork and counters have improved tremendously, he doesn't struggle with pressure much anymore. Ferguson fight was in a small cage. Dariush isn't a great boxer and won the Mago fight because Mago was content to sit in the clinch with his back to the cage, which Barb won't be. I don't like Dariush's wrestling and think it's very unlikely he has success taking Barb down. Don't really see a likely route to victory for him here.
 
The MM Analyst said:
I have a 10u parlay on Barboza/Gastelum. I think Barboza destroys him. Barboza's footwork and counters have improved tremendously, he doesn't struggle with pressure much anymore. Ferguson fight was in a small cage. Dariush isn't a great boxer and won the Mago fight because Mago was content to sit in the clinch with his back to the cage, which Barb won't be. I don't like Dariush's wrestling and think it's very unlikely he has success taking Barb down. Don't really see a likely route to victory for him here.
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Thank you MM Analyst for your MM analysis, I get what you are saying and I agree with it for the most part but don't sleep on Dariush's striking, Edson isn't exactly a safe bet, Dariush has multiple ways to win and he's always underestimated. Not touting anyone here, I'm staying away.

Kelvin is easy money though, he should really be -1000, Vitor is so done and he's just turning up for paychecks at this point. Kelvin has a solid chin and his only 2 losses are splits.
 
rille31 said:
Can dariush do what mj did to barboza?
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Probably not, both are southpaws though. MJ beat Barboza with pressure and speed but Barboza has improved since, especially with his hands.

A lot of kickboxers don't like to be pressured, it affects their ability to get kicks off and that's what MJ did to Barboza, constant forward pressure. Edson's leg kick won't really be there against Dariush either, he doesn't attack the inside nearly as well as the outside.

I don't think Dariush will bring the same pressure as MJ and definitely not the same speed.
 
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MMA Gambling Expert said:
Probably not, both are southpaws though. MJ beat Barboza with pressure and speed but Barboza has improved since, especially with his hands.

A lot of kickboxers don't like to be pressured, it affects their ability to get kicks off and that's what MJ did to Barboza, constant forward pressure. Edson's leg kick won't really be there against Dariush either. He doesn't attack the inside nearly as well as the outside.

I don't think Dariush will bring the same pressure as MJ and definitely not the same speed.
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Dariush speed isn't even close to MJ's. But to address Barboza's leg kicks not being as effective vs lefties:

Pettis tries to pressure Barboza. And while generally that's not Anthony's style, he realized that was probably his best chance to win, so he moved forward more than he has in the past, didn't wait to counter as much. And he did it out of a southpaw stance. Barboza still chewed up his lead leg. He hit some inside leg kicks for sure, but even landed some unorthodox kicks to the outside of Pettis lead (right) leg (once almost knocking him down with one). Again, I realize Pettis isn't a traditional pressure fighter but he did try to implement it in that fight and Barboza dealt with it well. Dariush doesn't move as quickly as Pettis either. I think Dariush lead leg is still absolutely in play to be blasted, even out of the southpaw stance.
 
Jesus MJ vs Dariush was one of the worst robberies ever. Hell Dariush even knew it.

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MMA Gambling Expert said:
Edson's leg kick won't really be there against Dariush either. He doesn't attack the inside nearly as well as the outside..
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He throws them so fast with no windup, I honestly don't think it matters which stance his opponent is in. Look at southpaw Pettis' leg

 
mkess101 said:
Dariush speed isn't even close to MJ's.
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I know I just said that
mkess101 said:
But to address Barboza's leg kicks not being as effective vs lefties:

Pettis tries to pressure Barboza. And while generally that's not Anthony's style, he realized that was probably his best chance to win, so he moved forward more than he has in the past, didn't wait to counter as much. And he did it out of a southpaw stance. Barboza still chewed up his lead leg. He hit some inside leg kicks for sure, but even landed some unorthodox kicks to the outside of Pettis lead (right) leg (once almost knocking him down with one). Again, I realize Pettis isn't a traditional pressure fighter but he did try to implement it in that fight and Barboza dealt with it well. Dariush doesn't move as quickly as Pettis either. I think Dariush lead leg is still absolutely in play to be blasted, even out of the southpaw stance.
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I still expect him to land leg kicks but I don't think they will play a big role in the fight. Pettis was a great style match up for Barboza, it was a kickboxing fight at range, that's what Barboza wants. If Dariush can uses a gameplan where he throws high volume and constantly has Barboza on the back foot then he can win this fight. Gotta factor in the Brazlillan judging though, I think this is a close fight, I wouldn't sleep on Dariush.
 
The MM Analyst said:
I have a 10u parlay on Barboza/Gastelum. I think Barboza destroys him. Barboza's footwork and counters have improved tremendously, he doesn't struggle with pressure much anymore. Ferguson fight was in a small cage. Dariush isn't a great boxer and won the Mago fight because Mago was content to sit in the clinch with his back to the cage, which Barb won't be. I don't like Dariush's wrestling and think it's very unlikely he has success taking Barb down. Don't really see a likely route to victory for him here.
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Too greedy to go for Barb + Gastelum ITD? +120. There's no way in hell Vitor lasts five rounds, especially if Kelvin gets top position. If that happens I will blow myself
 
Cptn1NSAN0 said:
Too greedy to go for Barb + Gastelum ITD? +120. There's no way in hell Vitor lasts five rounds, especially if Kelvin gets top position. If that happens I will blow myself
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I can't see how Vitor could possibly last more than like 2 rounds. If he hasn't won by the end of rounds 1 (and he won't) he will give up and start pulling guard.
 
MMA Gambling Expert said:
I know I just said that

I still expect him to land leg kicks but I don't think they will play a big role in the fight. Pettis was a great style match up for Barboza, it was a kickboxing fight at range, that's what Barboza wants. If Dariush can uses a gameplan where he throws high volume and constantly has Barboza on the back foot then he can win this fight. Gotta factor in the Brazlillan judging though, I think this is a close fight, I wouldn't sleep on Dariush.
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Actually I said it first earlier in the thread, then you said he wasn't as fast. I'm saying it's not even close. I know you like to take credit for all sorts of analysis like you're the first to think it, but relax. Anyway, moving on.

Like I said, Pettis moved forward way more than normal in that fight, trying to apply pressure. Rewatch it, I just did. Pettis fought differently than I've almost ever seen him fight.
 
iGnP said:
So does that mean you're on Belfort iTD?
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Belfort ITD pays less than Belfort straight. I'll likely be on Belfort for a small play and the ITD line in a multi-parlay.
 
It is losing value pretty quickly at -855, but I already have the Main Event ending ITD at -600 and -700 in a few parlays. Pretty safe way to play that fight
 
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