UFN 106 - Belfort vs Gastelum - Brazil

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Good luck anyone betting Dariush in Brazil.

I'm playing Barboza decision. I think Barboza's chin and problems dealing with pressure are overblown. Ferg drowns EVERYONE with his pressure. And Dariush should've lost to MJ, it was obvious who the crisper, faster guy was. The fact that Barboza couldn't deal with MJ's speed isn't concerning to me, Dariush can't move and hit like that.

I think if you're gonna play Dariush, just play him itd. I think those Brazilian judges are gonna count every decent leg lick Barboza lands every bit as much as a head strike. And he's gonna throw a lot of them of course. I think the outcome of this fight in Brazil is Barboza by dec almost 50% of the time honestly, so his dec prop actually has value at +145. Not sure I like paying the juice on his ML though at -170. Need to think about that.
Yeah but at the same time I don't really wanna lay the juice on Barboza, Dariush is constantly underrated by the public and the oddsmaker. Clear pass for me. This will probably be a close fight but I gotta favour Barboza despite his flaws.
 
Good luck anyone betting Dariush in Brazil.

I'm playing Barboza decision. I think Barboza's chin and problems dealing with pressure are overblown. Ferg drowns EVERYONE with his pressure. And Dariush should've lost to MJ, it was obvious who the crisper, faster guy was. The fact that Barboza couldn't deal with MJ's speed isn't concerning to me, Dariush can't move and hit like that.

I think if you're gonna play Dariush, just play him itd. I think those Brazilian judges are gonna count every decent leg lick Barboza lands every bit as much as a head strike. And he's gonna throw a lot of them of course. I think the outcome of this fight in Brazil is Barboza by dec almost 50% of the time honestly, so his dec prop actually has value at +145. Not sure I like paying the juice on his ML though at -170. Need to think about that.
How can you see him winning ITD? Just curious. By sub?
 
Already on Beneil decison. That pressure, that Chute Boxe muay thai, the threat of tds and possible clinch control. I like this play, even if it looks like i'll be the only one on Benny
 
Fuck these late replacements im too lazy to make a research about brazilian local fighter fuck it.. All I know is that 50-50 fights im gonna bet on Brazilians. I got my lesson in Canada.. wont make that mistake again. I know Canada ismore biased but Brazil is really dangerous too.
 
Trinaldo has a nice win streak but not a single good wrestler there (maybe except Parke) And that fight was really close. I think UFC wants to derail that win streak.
 
I know, I've only touted underdogs here so far, but Bethe will be a favourite for sure. Easy money none the less, as long as the line isn't absurd I'll play here, if she's more expensive than -200 I'll probably pass but I don't she'll be that juiced.
Bethe +103 at Ohmbet ;)
 
How can you see him winning ITD? Just curious. By sub?

Yeah or if he happens to catch Barboza flush if he's rushing him. Barboza throws SO many leg kicks that it's never out of the question that he gets countered and hit clean when he's throwing one. Of course, the reason I'm betting him is the fact that he's so fast with his kicks mean the odds of him getting caught are lower than other guys who use leg kicks as much as he does. There's also a chance he gets sloppy and tires late in the fight like he did vs Gil, where Dariush is able to get ahold of him and work his sub game.

But yeah I'm really playing devil's advocate against myself here. I'll probably just play Barboza dec and leave it at that. Possibly put his ML in a parlay or two.
 
Yeah but at the same time I don't really wanna lay the juice on Barboza, Dariush is constantly underrated by the public and the oddsmaker. Clear pass for me. This will probably be a close fight but I gotta favour Barboza despite his flaws.

Like I said, Barboza dec is +145 if you don't wanna pay juice. If you think there's a decent chance he finishes Beneil, obviously that's a pass too but while I think it's possible, it's unlikely imo.
 
Man looking over this card and UK card, think they both have seriously amazing betting potential depending on where lines end up
 
Yeah or if he happens to catch Barboza flush if he's rushing him. Barboza throws SO many leg kicks that it's never out of the question that he gets countered and hit clean when he's throwing one. Of course, the reason I'm betting him is the fact that he's so fast with his kicks mean the odds of him getting caught are lower than other guys who use leg kicks as much as he does. There's also a chance he gets sloppy and tires late in the fight like he did vs Gil, where Dariush is able to get ahold of him and work his sub game.

But yeah I'm really playing devil's advocate against myself here. I'll probably just play Barboza dec and leave it at that. Possibly put his ML in a parlay or two.
Yea i'm just a little confused on how I want to play it. I dont want to pay juice on Barb but I dont think its a foregone conclusion that he wins by decision or by tko (i think both are somewhat likely) so i cant play props. Odds on Dariush arent good enough and yeah, I guess he can make it an ugly fight and somehow pull off a decision or catch him ITD. Maybe im overthinking it, IDK. I like both fighters a lot and wish they werent fighting each other. Hate to see one lose

*throws $1 on draw* lol
 
Yeees gareth mcgoat on this card

Ez money
 
There is no way that I'd bet Gastelum at his odds. Belfort is still dangerous.

Barboza just seems like a hell of a matchup for Dariush. Most of Dariush's striking is at kicking range.
 
There is no way that I'd bet Gastelum at his odds. Belfort is still dangerous.

Barboza just seems like a hell of a matchup for Dariush. Most of Dariush's striking is at kicking range.
So does that mean you're on Belfort iTD?
 
Why not just wait for Vitor rd 1? Does anyone think he actually finishes Kelvin after rd 1? I mean I suppose it's possible but I don't think Vitor has much more than 5 minutes in him these days. He basically shut down after rd 1 vs Mousasi and put his back against the cage and offered zero offense.

Unless you think the odds just won't be much better than his itd line?
 
Why not just wait for Vitor rd 1? Does anyone think he actually finishes Kelvin after rd 1? I mean I suppose it's possible but I don't think Vitor has much more than 5 minutes in him these days. He basically shut down after rd 1 vs Mousasi and put his back against the cage and offered zero offense.

Unless you think the odds just won't be much better than his itd line?

He either finishes Kelvin in r1 or he loses
Kelvin has a pretty good chin so it will be hard for Vitor
 
I favour Formiga over Borg for sure, think this is a grappler's delight. Fight ending in submission or decision is a small parlay play worthy imo.
 
If Means is at evens again i'll drop 20u on him.

Same, that'll be the biggest steal ever. Him at dog odds for 207 was hilarious

Aside from the skill difference, Oliveira is the type of fighter that instantly taps to a triangle that isn't fully locked in with his arm on the opposite side (where he could defend) and leaves on a stretcher to avoid a loss when he's getting dominated

1456197228074


As soon as adversity strikes, Oliveira checks out
 
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