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I think reginaldo has proven his cardio is pretty suspect, much more likely to gas
UFN 105 - Lewis vs Browne - Halifax
- Thread starter EzFlyer
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One way to include missing weight....You could take all the aggregate data of all past UFC fighters that have missed weight. Then calculate that to a %.
I think someone did the math and over the past 3 or 5 years fighters that missed weight lost about 33% more.
My math isn't exact but you get the idea. Missing weight should be factored in to reduce the liklihood of fighter "x" winning but the trick is to accurately calcualte how much it should reduce their winning %.
EDIT: another factor is how much someone misses weight by. IMO if someone misses by a lot - say 5 lbs. or over and doesn't try to keep cutting then it can be an advantage for them to head into the fight feeling good and be the heavier fighter.
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zahabi has never been to rd 2
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I agree that the missed weight indicator is valuable but I just want to get my program to the point where I can just have it run automatically every event. For the weight, I'd have to check the weigh-ins and manually edit the weight variable for each individual fighter that misses weight. I'd like to skip manually editing anything if possible but it's worth considering once this is all smoothed out.
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Has on the amateur circuit, not that means the same
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How do you know his ground game is better?
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I disagree, Janes isn't much of an athlete, is 35 and said himself he only got to the UFC because a card was in Canada. He fights at a no name gym as well, so that along with his age make him showing improvements between fights pretty unlikely. His striking defense is horrible and I think Meers is a better grappler and wrestler. Add to that Meers has 4x the experience, is 6 years younger and fights out of Roufus where his striking has improved a lot over the last few years. I like all of the juiced favs to win, but would rather take a shot at Taleb or maybe even Ricci, just because Felder loves splits, before I would bet Janes..
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I don't think he's gonna win, I just like his chances more than the others.
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I'll have em' this evening or tomorrow a.m. Here's one not requested I already did
Browne/Lewis prediction and b/d
Welcome to the heavyweight division, a class where the best fighters in the division can ostensibly be placed inside a single nutshell. Long regarded as the glamour division where the champion was considered to be "The Baddest Man on the Planet" and a household name, today that is not true whatsoever. For a few years now, this class has stagnated and has turned in to a glorified "round robin" where the savvy old veterans are the valedictorians and the young pugilists essentially middling behemoths eating the scraps. I mean, it's the only division where a top fighter can get away with a veritable single skillset to their game. Such is the life for the current UFC heavyweight roster, and tomorrow two very flawed combatants will take center stage to determine which man will move a rung up the ladder and which will tumble down.
Make no mistake, it is the Hawaiian, Travis Browne who needs this victory more than does Lewis, and a loss for "Hapa" will send his stock plummeting to pennies on the dollar and most likely a pink-slip and subsequent transfer to Bellator. Conversely, "The Black Beast" is in a much more malleable position in terms of job security given his recent success. Indeed, Lewis is riding a 5-fight win and has won six of seven while Browne is coming in on the heels of a two fight skid. Additionally Hapa has dropped three of his last four with two of those being first round knockouts.
Stylistically this is an interesting matchup. At 6'7" tall figure with a condoresque 79 inch wingspan, the 242 pound fighter and makes great use of his long limbs. Specifically he does this with work in behind a long stiff jab and kicking game that utilizes myriad techniques. Predominantly of those is his use of the teep to create distance and oblique kicks to force his foe to move and reset. In the clinch Travis can be extraordinarily dangerous with solid takedown defense and punishing downward elbows. The "Hellbows" as they're appropriately named rain down on his opponents head like an accelerated jackhammer while they attempt to take him down against the cage. Period
Striking aside, IMO the biggest gap between Lewis and Browne is in the grappling department. Travis is a purple belt in Brazilian jiujitsu who is successful on 73% of his takedowns. Hitting on 2 of 3 TDs vs. Matt Mitrione, Browne did demonstrate he can wrestle a bit. Theoretically, if he sets them up with his striking or clinch work, Browne should be able to floor the big man if he wishes. Undoubtedly this is TBBs most vulnerable part of his game. The only question is, can Browne keep him down, and if not how much gas will he expend for his effort?
At 34 years old Derek Lewis has hit his stride and is in the prime of his career. Winning five in a row and six of seven, Lewis is most likely a win away from a title elimination match. Physically, Lewis is cartoonishly large and looks like he belongs on the top ledge of scaffolding hurtling barrels from above his head towards a perceived threat or else swatting biplanes out of the air from atop a skyscraper. The Black Beast is massive and is actually forced to cut weight so that he can sneak his robust frame under the mandatory 265 pound limit.
The Louisiana native is a ferocious brawler who has cleaned up much of his striking fundamentals over the course of his 10 fight UFC campaign. Lewis has progressively evolved into a versatile mixed martial artist who has holes in his game but ones that are being plugged up in each subsequent outing. No longer does he simply bullrush forward without purpose and in the process give up easy takedowns. Now he shows patience and has tempered his volume to be more of a counter puncher.
That said, his major liability remains his takedown defense. The TDs vs. Lewis has given up are: Roy Nelson (7), Victor Pesta (5) and Shamil Abdurakhimov (4). However, Lewis is hard to hold down and is quick in scrambles with the ability to gain top position regularly. In top control he is a brick house atop his man, able to unleash a torrent of G-n-P until they are unconscious.
For me this tilt comes down to Browne's wrestling. A former basketball player who is extremely athletic, Browne has nimble footwork for a big man and can use his speed to transition into TD's and wear Lewis out on the mat. However, I'm skeptical that Browne has the ability to continuously hold him down. Lewis has great get ups and I also believe his cardio is better than Brownes. Finally, Browne has a bad habit of overextending on his punches while simultaneously leaving his chin bolt straight in the air. I think Browne gets a few TDs early, Lewis gets up, and ultimately catches the Hawaiian flush and hands out a free nap.
I do like the DEC props of both men and the o1.5 as well.
Make no mistake, it is the Hawaiian, Travis Browne who needs this victory more than does Lewis, and a loss for "Hapa" will send his stock plummeting to pennies on the dollar and most likely a pink-slip and subsequent transfer to Bellator. Conversely, "The Black Beast" is in a much more malleable position in terms of job security given his recent success. Indeed, Lewis is riding a 5-fight win and has won six of seven while Browne is coming in on the heels of a two fight skid. Additionally Hapa has dropped three of his last four with two of those being first round knockouts.
Stylistically this is an interesting matchup. At 6'7" tall figure with a condoresque 79 inch wingspan, the 242 pound fighter and makes great use of his long limbs. Specifically he does this with work in behind a long stiff jab and kicking game that utilizes myriad techniques. Predominantly of those is his use of the teep to create distance and oblique kicks to force his foe to move and reset. In the clinch Travis can be extraordinarily dangerous with solid takedown defense and punishing downward elbows. The "Hellbows" as they're appropriately named rain down on his opponents head like an accelerated jackhammer while they attempt to take him down against the cage. Period
Striking aside, IMO the biggest gap between Lewis and Browne is in the grappling department. Travis is a purple belt in Brazilian jiujitsu who is successful on 73% of his takedowns. Hitting on 2 of 3 TDs vs. Matt Mitrione, Browne did demonstrate he can wrestle a bit. Theoretically, if he sets them up with his striking or clinch work, Browne should be able to floor the big man if he wishes. Undoubtedly this is TBBs most vulnerable part of his game. The only question is, can Browne keep him down, and if not how much gas will he expend for his effort?
At 34 years old Derek Lewis has hit his stride and is in the prime of his career. Winning five in a row and six of seven, Lewis is most likely a win away from a title elimination match. Physically, Lewis is cartoonishly large and looks like he belongs on the top ledge of scaffolding hurtling barrels from above his head towards a perceived threat or else swatting biplanes out of the air from atop a skyscraper. The Black Beast is massive and is actually forced to cut weight so that he can sneak his robust frame under the mandatory 265 pound limit.
The Louisiana native is a ferocious brawler who has cleaned up much of his striking fundamentals over the course of his 10 fight UFC campaign. Lewis has progressively evolved into a versatile mixed martial artist who has holes in his game but ones that are being plugged up in each subsequent outing. No longer does he simply bullrush forward without purpose and in the process give up easy takedowns. Now he shows patience and has tempered his volume to be more of a counter puncher.
That said, his major liability remains his takedown defense. The TDs vs. Lewis has given up are: Roy Nelson (7), Victor Pesta (5) and Shamil Abdurakhimov (4). However, Lewis is hard to hold down and is quick in scrambles with the ability to gain top position regularly. In top control he is a brick house atop his man, able to unleash a torrent of G-n-P until they are unconscious.
For me this tilt comes down to Browne's wrestling. A former basketball player who is extremely athletic, Browne has nimble footwork for a big man and can use his speed to transition into TD's and wear Lewis out on the mat. However, I'm skeptical that Browne has the ability to continuously hold him down. Lewis has great get ups and I also believe his cardio is better than Brownes. Finally, Browne has a bad habit of overextending on his punches while simultaneously leaving his chin bolt straight in the air. I think Browne gets a few TDs early, Lewis gets up, and ultimately catches the Hawaiian flush and hands out a free nap.
I do like the DEC props of both men and the o1.5 as well.
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Yeah I got that part from your first post, I just must have missed where you gave any reasoning or contributed to the thread in any purposeful way..
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Because he has never been past round one
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Like over 1,5 Zahabi/Vieira. The Brazilian is durable and Zahabi imo is overrated a lot here. Vieira have good boxing, good chin, great bjj. Vieira is live dog but this over is wrong imo, the right could be line on 2,5.
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Janes is a BJJ black belt with 6 outta 9 wins by submission especially RNC. Gerald has lost 7/8 fights by submission mainly by chokes. Gerald has an edge standing up but Janes is big and has an edge on the ground imo.
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Yeah but he hasnt been sub'd in a number of years and has a hell of a lot of sub finishes himself. Looked very slick on the mat in his debut. Janes bb stinks of mcdojo bb
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Man we'll see, I think Janes is the most likely guy to win on this card thats a huge dog. I like his toughness and chin aswell as his size. No way im touching Gerald at this price.
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Sounds like you based this on wiki-capping? From tape, I think Meers is the slicker grappler and should be the better wrestler by a decent margin, highly doubt Janes taps him from the bottom or sweeps.
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That's fair but he's kinda low output and doesn't seem to be very fast twitch heavy, if you know what I mean. And he comes from a good gym. Wouldn't be too concerned about it
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Ive watched a couple of Janes fights, he's not impressive at all. Keeps his head on the centreline throwing generic strikes. Ive watched a couple of Meers fights, and he's a worthy favorite but I looked on his record and he has been subbed a a lot of times. Id rather play the durable bjj black belt with a liking for chokes at +250 than Gerald. If anything I think this fight goes to decision.
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He could also have an adrenaline dump. Hometown (country) fight in a big stage, UFC debut, big step up in competition, etc. It's not a big factor in my play anyway. I wanted to play Viera in some form and I think that NSC trumps his ML. I mean it is not impossible for him to win a decision, but if it is a close fight that goes to a decision, I expect Zahabi to get it
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Thats fair and I certainly wish I could have got Meers at the -185 opener, but I beleieve he beat guys better than Janes on the regional scene tbh. Also has a win over Alvey and a competetive dec loss to him as well.
Just saw the added part about the dec and I honestly think the most likely outcome is Meer ITD. He has only been to a dec 3 times in 33 fights and Janes is pretty aggressive as well (8/11 itd). I think Meer tags him on the feet, before reverting to his wrestling when Janes overcommits and Meers works his sub game/GnP. Janes stance and striking style should make it pretty easy for Meers to work takedowns imo..
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