UFN 105 - Lewis vs Browne - Halifax

[DevilsPt2]

Poker is completely different from MMA. The sample size is MASSIVE. Also there are no intangibles. Every decision you and your opponents make can be quantified.

IMO MMA is way too volatile and way too small a sample size to ever work well. I am open to the idea that it has to work just enough to be profitable, maybe this can happen.

For example, MMA Speculator has run his Alg on 8 events? Id need it run on YEARS of back data to consider it effective.

I switched from poker to sports bets. I've won 30K in a month playing $10-30 buyin tournies and lost 10K in one hand playin cash. I'll go back eventually but MMA betting is a vacation in comparison. If anyone plays, I wouldn't mind giving out basic pro-tips.

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

OMG that means dogs are due to hit! Bet the house on every dog on Sunday, right @MMA Gambling Expert ?

No sir, there are only 3 dogs I will possibly be playing. Had to hit Hendricks already, couldn't wait till weigh ins.

 

[Card]

 

[iGnP]

Parody account but still funny

 

[TimCoreCombat]

I'm still in the very early stages of creating a prediction engine, but so far, the results have been promising. There's still a lot of work to do and a lot of testing before I can be confident in my numbers but I just wanted to start a thread to outline my progress.

I've backtested my early program from UFC 205 to date. Here are the stats so far:

Total Predictions: 117
Predictions Right: 85
Predictions Wrong: 32
Prediction Right %: 73%
ROI: 29.67%

If you were to bet $20 for every fight predicted, you would have netted $694.40 from Bovada odds.

The program is still quite primitive as it only predicts the winner without taking into consideration the odds. I have a lot of ideas on how to make this more precise and I'm working with a friend to make it more robust.

In the meantime, I will continue to add predictions and update the stats. This could just be luck but it's definitely not looking that way currently.

Here are the predictions for Lewis/Brown this weekend:

Here were the picks from UFC 208:

You're one of my favorite posters and I love you two team play of the event but I'm not sure I like your algorithm for this event.

I agreed with almost all your picks for the algorithm of last event but I don't think I agree with many this time.

I am curious as to how you're doing this.

 

[Card]

 

[TimCoreCombat]

It amazes me how many people do not understand this. Being up X units or X dollars means jackshit without further information.

Agreed. I also think that some don't bet units which is crazy to me.

 

[TimCoreCombat]

You're one of my favorite posters and I love you two team play of the event but I'm not sure I like your algorithm for this event.

I agreed with almost all your picks for the algorithm of last event but I don't think I agree with many this time.

I am curious as to how you're doing this.

Whoops I have no clue who you are. I guess this ambien has smashed me.

 

[Card]

I started MMA just to get in shape, train out of Zuma MMA, trained with Theodorou, i never expected to be in the UFC, I got my debut because of the Vancouver card, I don't force takedowns, counter wrestling in my last fight, I wanted to clinch more, I don't consider myself a striker, he's good in submissions, I'm fighting more his experience than skills

 

[Card]

We have the same reach, I will push the pace, look for the KO



Lombard is a boxer, weight cut starts soon, going well

 

[Card]

I have more weapons, death by a thousand cuts

 

[MMA Goodfella]

I was researching the fights for this weekend and when I was I really watched the Wonderboy versus Woodley fight and came across a mindblower of sorts, I already knew it but seeing it again had me shaking my head. That is to say Jake Shields has one of the best resumes in MMA history. This cat has victories over Woodley, Robbie Lawler, Dan Henderson, Demian Maia, and Carlos Condit. And he got them in their prime for the most part. Anyway, that's neither here nor there just thought it was really fucking crazy.

 

[cCrown]

I like this show but it baffles me that that guy keeps saying i can't get behind this line so i'll have to parlay it up. I mean wut?

 

[cCrown]

btw for anyone that is interested browne decision is +1000 on betstars. That's the highest i've seen it.

 

[waiguoren]

We have the same reach, I will push the pace, look for the KO



Lombard is a boxer, weight cut starts soon, going well

Lewis saying he is going to come out throwing bombs and promises this fight will not go to decision

 

[wack3d]

Lewis saying he is going to come out throwing bombs and promises this fight will not go to decision

he always say that

 

[waiguoren]

he always say that

Lewis is really angry ay himself for the last fight. I would not be surprised to see him come out hard in the 1st. And Browne's chin is always straight up in the air

 

[wack3d]

Lewis is really angry ay himself for the last fight. I would not be surprised to see him come out hard in the 1st. And Browne's chin is always straight up in the air

ya he may try but he is so freaking slow and plodding i think he will have a hard time landing unless Browne fights stupid

 

[Stunna77]

Lewis saying he is going to come out throwing bombs and promises this fight will not go to decision

I hope he's just saying that, was really liking the over in that fight and already have some action on it..

 

[Stunna77]

Just did a round robin of 2's and 3's with the following:

Theo/Cezar O1.5
Meers ML
Ponz Dec
McCann ITD
Felder Dec
Esparaza Dec

Thoughts?